Game Notes: Reds VS Cardinals (Former O's & Former Trade Targets)

[Stevo5278]

I'm on business travel in Ohio and just got back from watching the Cardinals play the Reds at the Great American Ballpark. The final was 7-2 Cardinals. Here are some game notes on former O's in the game, former O's Erik Bedard trade targets, and other observations on the game and the ballpark.

Former Trade Targets

Jay Bruce - Went 1-4 but you can tell that he's a stud prospect. He played a decent CF (or maybe he just looked that good next to Adam Dunn) and has a sweet swing.

Joey Votto - Went 1-4 with a two-run homer, accounting for all the Reds' runs on the night. He looks to be having a solid season (.278, 11, 35) for a first baseman. He would have looked great at 1B in an O's uniform but I'll take what we got from Seattle.

Homer Bailey - Got lit up like the Griswald Family Christmas tree, including a four run third inning highlighted by back-to-back blasts from Pujols and Rick Ankiel. Watching those two hit some mammoth blasts was a real treat. At best Bailey was inconsistent. He was great for the first two innings, had a horrible third, and couldn't make it out of the fourth.

Former Orioles

Paul Bako - Went 0-4 and managed to leave 4 men on base. He also made a pitiful throw to second base on a stolen base. All in all though he's not having a bad year (.243, 6, 20 in 151 AB) considering his track record. Apparently last night he had his first 2 HR game of his career. I guess even a blind squirrel finds nuts once in awhile. I'm still liking Guillermo Quiroz as our #2 catcher.

Corey Patterson - Went 0-1 with a K in a pinch hitting appearance.

Other Observations & Game Notes

Ken Griffey, Jr. - Got a nice standing ovation from the crowd before the game and before each at-bat. I couldn't help but wonder how his numbers would rank if he had stayed healthy and if steroids never tainted the game. The fact that his numbers are so great despite the injuries and inflated HR totals elsewhere shows what a special player he is and was.

Rick Ankiel - Despite his screwup last year with the HgH, his transition from phenom pitcher to wild thing to star OF is nothing short of remarkable. He played an excellent CF tonight for St. Louis and hit the cover off the ball on his HR.

Tony LaRussa's Batting Order - LaRussa batted rookie pitcher Mitchell Boggs #8 and 2B Brendan Ryan #9 despite the fact that Boggs never had an AB at the major league level before tonight's game and the fact that Ryan has some OK numbers for a part-time 2B (.293, 0, 4). Ironically Boggs went 0-2 with a K while Ryan went 2-3 with a 2B and a BB, and scored 3 runs. I guess he didn't like getting dropped below the pitcher.

The Great American Ballpark - This was a wonderful place to watch a baseball game. It definitely lacked the charm of Camden Yards but as far as modern ballparks go, it's top notch. The concessions are all located on the outside of the stadium so there's an open-air view for all in the walkways. The weather was great so the views out on the Ohio River were amazing. The food was pretty decent. I enjoyed the Skyline Chili Coney (a LOADED chili dog) and the stadium bratwurst although the regular hot dog made me longing for a nice Esskay Oriole Frank. The ticket was $22 for a mezzanine seat on the third base line near the foul pole. It was definitely worth the price and I'd strongly recommend that anyone who finds themselves in the Cincy area when the Reds are in town stop by and try to catch a ballgame.

Steve

[Crazysilver03]

Tony LaRussa has been batting the pitcher 8th all season. This is nothing new.

[Stevo5278]

Tony LaRussa has been batting the pitcher 8th all season. This is nothing new.

Has he ever given a reason for it? I can see why you do it if you have a pitcher who can hit (i.e. Glavine, Maddox, Ankiel, Willis) but why else would you do it?

[Crazysilver03]

Has he ever given a reason for it? I can see why you do it if you have a pitcher who can hit (i.e. Glavine, Maddox, Ankiel, Willis) but why else would you do it?

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080226&content_id=2390500&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

A discussion of leadoff possibilities for the 2008 Cardinals unearthed all sorts of interesting nuggets on Tuesday, but none more revealing than this: manager Tony La Russa will again use a "second leadoff man" in his lineup this year.

This is the closest thing I have found to a reasoning. Maybe Migrant Bird could chime in.

[HeatherC12]

I'm glad you enjoyed your trip to Great American Ballpark and I hope your trip to Cincy has been good overall. You picked a bad night to go to the ballpark though aside from the weather, LOL :laughlol: The Reds didn't get back to Cincy until like 3 AM last night so I'm sure they were all playing from a semi comatose state. I watched the game on TV and they definitely weren't the same team that beat Florida last night. Hopefully tomorrow night is better for the guys.

[ChrisP]

Cool report. I love visiting Cincy. I've been out there for numerous baseball and football games. Fans are friendly unless you say something negative about Ohio State.

[davearm]

Cool report. I love visiting Cincy. I've been out there for numerous baseball and football games. Fans are friendly unless you say something negative about Ohio State.

It's funny you mention this.

A few years ago when I was at Jacobs Field, the conversation I had with the local folks sitting around me was over OSU and Big Ten Football. The Buckeyes are king in OH.

[HeatherC12]

It's funny you mention this.

A few years ago when I was at Jacobs Field, the conversation I had with the local folks sitting around me was over OSU and Big Ten Football. The Buckeyes are king in OH.

That's as it should be, LOL (Go Bucks!)

[Migrant Redbird]

A discussion of leadoff possibilities for the 2008 Cardinals unearthed all sorts of interesting nuggets on Tuesday, but none more revealing than this: manager Tony La Russa will again use a "second leadoff man" in his lineup this year.

This is the closest thing I have found to a reasoning. Maybe Migrant Bird could chime in.

La Russa's rationale is that he's batting Pujols third in order to increase his plate appearances, and batting a position player 9th increases the odds that there will be someone on base when Pujols comes up to bat after the first inning.

La Russa also batted his pitcher 8th back in 1998, to increase the odds that 1st base would be occupied when McGwire came up to bat, and thereby reduce the likelihood of an intentional walk and to give McGwire a better chance to break the home run record. On at least one occasion, La Russa actually batted McGwire 2nd to increase his plate appearances, which might have been the first time that he put the pitcher in the #8 spot.

One of my objections to La Russa as a manager is that he would monkey with the integrity of the game primarily just to increase the odds of his player breaking an individual record, although I do concede that McGwire put an awful lot of butts into seats back then, both at home and on the road.

The game simulations do seem to support the thesis that a team will score more runs with the pitcher batting 8th instead of 9th. Batting the pitcher 7th improves run production even more in the game simulations. However, the delta in additional runs is very small, and one could probably argue that it will rarely make a difference in the number of wins if one considers a large enough number of seasons. (In a single season, the odds that batting the pitcher 8th will result in a net increase or decrease in wins would be larger; over a number of seasons, the increases and decreases are likely to even out.)

What no one except myself seems to have addressed -- at least that I've seen -- is the possibility that having the pitcher bat 8th also might force his removal for a pinch hitter earlier than otherwise might be the case. The problem occurs when the starting pitcher is going very well, but is due to bat in the middle innings with 2 outs and runners on base. Does the manager let his pitcher go ahead and bat, thereby keeping a superior pitcher on the mound and saving wear and tear on his bullpen, or does he bring in a pinch hitter and try to drive in the runs?

I can recall Bob Gibson batting for himself in the late innings while locked in a "pitchers duel", but even Gibby usually would get taken out for a pinch hitter in those types of situations if it were the 7th or 8th and his team was behind or tied. Most managers will play by the "book", which says that you have to pinch hit after the 5th or 6th innings if there is the opportunity to score some runs.

If the pitcher is batting 9th, there is the possibility that the #8 hitter will make the final out, thereby postponing the manager's decision for another inning. There is also the possibility that the #8 hitter will drive in enough runs that the manager will have a more comfortable lead, so that keeping his superior starting pitcher in the game becomes a more attractive option.

I'm assuming, of course, that the opposing manager is not in a position where he would simply walk the #8 hitter and pitch to the pitcher. Usually, the #8 hitter isn't very adept with a bat and, if walking the #8 hitter would advance a runner into scoring position, the opposing manager may choose to go ahead and pitch to him.

Also, if walking the #8 hitter would load the bases, it's more risky. For some reasons, many pitchers develop control problems after the bases have been intentionally loaded, and are likely to walk the pitcher or uncork a wild pitch when they have no open base to fall back upon.

I don't think that a simple statistical analysis or simulation would resolve this issue. Any analysis would need to take into account the likely strategies of the managers.

The bottom line is I believe that having to remove one's starting pitcher an inning or two earlier than otherwise might be the case if he were batting 9th is likely to cost a team more wins than the fractional increase in runs scored is likely to gain in wins. Both numbers are probably some fraction of a win per season, on average, but I don't know how to quantify those so that we could compare them.

[davearm]

Without doing any real analysis to support it, it does appear to me that carrying out LaRussa's strategy to its logical conclusion would mean hitting the pitcher 7th.

As best I can tell, the goals are threefold:

a) minimize the odds that the worst hitter will come to bat ahead of Pujols in a given inning (which would decrease the odds of Pujols having someone to drive in); and

b) minimize the odds that the worst hitter will come to bat with Pujols on base (which would decrease the odds of Pujols being driven in); and

c) ensure that Pujols bats in the first inning.

If those are your objectives, then it would seem the optimal strategy would be to have 4 batters in between the pitcher and Pujols, and 3 between Pujols and the pitcher.

So with Pujols hitting #3 to satisfy condition c), then that lands the pitcher at #7.

[Migrant Redbird]

... So with Pujols hitting #3 to satisfy condition c), then that lands the pitcher at #7.

Which exacerbates the issue I brought up about batting the pitcher 8th requiring the starting pitcher to be removed for a pinch hitter earlier than necessary if he were batting 9th.

But I don't see that batting the pitcher 7th minimizes the likelihood of violating condition b), to "minimize the odds that the worst hitter will come to bat with Pujols on base".

If Pujols bats with no one out, to keep the #7 hitter from batting with Pujols on base, it's necessary for batters #4, #5, and #6 to make outs. Assuming that Pujols isn't eliminated by a double play or other out, or that he's not driven in by one of the three following batters, the odds that all three of them would make an out are approximately 25 percent. In other words, when Pujols gets on with nobody out, the odds are approximately 75% that the #7 batter will get to the plate.

I have to say approximately because I've totally left out double plays and other outs on the base paths in my back-of-the-envelope calculations.

Speaking of Pujols, I'm a bit surprised that someone could write a report on that game and fail to mention the injury which Albert suffered in the 7th inning. According to the Post Dispatch, Albert has a "moderate strain of the left calf" which will sideline him for at least three weeks. In the pregame show last night, they were moaning about how 9 of the 10 Cardinals currently on the DL were pitchers; losing Pujols probably trumps all 9 of the pitchers.