Baseball Prospectus: Lo Cain

[weams]

25 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

I for one would rather use the money it would take to sign Cain to sign Cobb. Keep Mancini in LF and DH Trumbo ( since we're stuck with him). Nobody wants Trumbo and I want to keep Mancini. 

 

Orioles are not in on Cobb. So. 

[Dark Helmet]

22 minutes ago, weams said:

Orioles are not in on Cobb. So. 

When they thought he was getting $20m a year for 5 years.

[weams]

Just now, Dark Helmet said:

When they thought he was getting $20m a year for 5 years.

Isn't he?

[Dark Helmet]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Cain had the 16th fastest sprint speed of the 451 players statcast recorded.  Jones was 241st.  Jones has lost speed in the three years statcast has been collecting this data, Cain has actually been getting faster.

Speed falls off quick. Cain is 31, the "getting faster" trend won't  continue. If we signed Cain to a 4 year deal, we fans would be calling for him to be moved to CO by year 3.

[Dark Helmet]

21 minutes ago, weams said:

Isn't he?

He turned down 3/42m. Heck of a way to go to $100m.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

He turned down 3/42m. Heck of a way to go to $100m.

A good way. Thanks.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Dark Helmet said:

Speed falls off quick. Cain is 31, the "getting faster" trend won't  continue. If we signed Cain to a 4 year deal, we fans would be calling for him to be moved to CO by year 3.

Yes, he could decline quickly, my point is currently he can still play a plus defensive CF and hasn't shown signs of a decline yet.  I don't think Cain should be a top target or a priority by any means, but if his price is reasonable, he's a very good player.

[Dark Helmet]

21 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yes, he could decline quickly, my point is currently he can still play a plus defensive CF and hasn't shown signs of a decline yet.  I don't think Cain should be a top target or a priority by any means, but if his price is reasonable, he's a very good player.

I agree there. If he falls into our laps at a reasonable price.

[weams]

Quote

 Passan says that “one of the best free agents” feels the offers he has received are “so incompatible with his production” that he might wait until mid-season to sign. Without more information — who? how much? what would he deem fair and is that supportable? — that example really can’t even be assessed. An assistant GM tells Passan he’d rather pay Lorenzo Cain at a big rate ($24MM) for one season than promise him a longer-term deal. That’s an interesting and somewhat curious position, as Cain projects as a quality asset for a few years into the future, though it’s tough to assess without knowing the full context. More to the point, that view from one executive on one team hardly establishes the absence of a reasonable market for Cain.

MLBTR

[wildbillhiccup]

I'd feel much better about signing Cain to a four year deal if he was 27. If they decide to go the route of a speedster, they might be better off signing someone Jarrod Dyson to a one year deal given the uncertainty of the direction in which this team is heading long term. Other than starting pitchers, I don't think they should be giving three or four year deals to any offensive players right now (aside from extending Schoop). This is a team in limbo even if they're too naive to admit it. 

And to that point, I wonder how Duquette is able to even sell multi-year deals to respective free agents? Everyone knows that Machado is on his way out and that this team, as constructed, will probably not be able to contend. Why would anyone want to sign a multi-year deal wit the Orioles right now (over another team) unless it's strictly for the money? Short of Miami, I'm not sure there's a less appealing team in the majors right now. And yes, San Diego is bad too, but at least you get to live in San Diego.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'd feel much better about signing Cain to a four year deal if he was 27. If they decide to go the route of a speedster, they might be better off signing someone Jarrod Dyson to a one year deal given the uncertainty of the direction in which this team is heading long term. Other than starting pitchers, I don't think they should be giving three or four year deals to any offensive players right now (aside from extending Schoop). This is a team in limbo even if they're too naive to admit it. 

And to that point, I wonder how Duquette is able to even sell multi-year deals to respective free agents? Everyone knows that Machado is on his way out and that this team, as constructed, will probably not be able to contend. Why would anyone want to sign a multi-year deal wit the Orioles right now (over another team) unless it's strictly for the money? Short of Miami, I'm not sure there's a less appealing team in the majors right now. And yes, San Diego is bad too, but at least you get to live in San Diego.

 

Let me amend my last statement a bit. Detroit and Cincy are definitely less appealing destinations then Baltimore. I'd argue the Phillies and White Sox are on the upswing so they'd probably be more appealing to most FAs. I think this discussion might merit it's own thread!

[jamalshw]

On 1/14/2018 at 4:17 PM, Dark Helmet said:

Speed falls off quick. Cain is 31, the "getting faster" trend won't  continue. If we signed Cain to a 4 year deal, we fans would be calling for him to be moved to CO by year 3.

I think that would be perfect actually. Right now, Cain is a good CF and could slide Jones to RF. In a couple years, Hays can play CF and Cain can slide over to RF. It's succession planning and I'm okay with it.

[Camden_yardbird]

If Duquette is serious about making a run then this is exactly the type of 1 year player he should get.  1 year $15-18 million.  Cain is not Cruz, but the precedence has been set for this being a successful model.

[backwardsk]

I don't have much to add except that "Lo Cain" sounds like a drug the kidz are doing that I don't understand.

[MDtransplant757]

Cain, Cobb, Darvish and Arietta are most likely going to be signed on one year deals. Book it