Are the O's better than they were at the end of the 2017 season?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Unlike the dark days, we actually have pitching coming along the way. 

What makes you think so?   Especially in 2018?    Most of our good pitching prospects have never pitched above Delmarva, and it remains to be seen how they’ll do as they progress up the ladder.   

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Smith for Hays in RF

Smith 111G. 330 AB, 774 OPS

Certainly a better future potential.  Hays may have a chance to match Smith's offensive output.   Hays offers more range on defense.

Ftfy....

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

What makes you think so?   Especially in 2018?    Most of our good pitching prospects have never pitched above Delmarva, and it remains to be seen how they’ll do as they progress up the ladder.   

Akin is a work in progress, Rameriez is going to be an innings eater in a year. Add that with Gausman and Bundy and you have a great rotation. Wells isn't going to be that far off too. That and during the dark ages, we couldn't develop bats either. 

[backwardsk]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very rough rule of thumb: 10 fewer runs allowed = 1 wIn.    So, half a run for each of 100 starts = 50 runs = 5 more wins.   Of course, if you consider that the starters are only averaging 5+ innings per start, then half a run of ERA for those starters is only maybe 30 runs = 3 wins.   

So if they could find SP outside of Bundy and Gausman who could collectively pitch to 5.5 ERA, this could be a .500 team using those guidelines?

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Akin is a work in progress, Rameriez is going to be an innings eater in a year. Add that with Gausman and Bundy and you have a great rotation. Wells isn't going to be that far off too. That and during the dark ages, we couldn't develop bats either. 

Yeah, and Hayden Penn and Daniel Cabrera and Brain Matusz and John Stephens and Brad Bergeson were going to be worldbeaters too.

[Frobby]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

Akin is a work in progress, Rameriez is going to be an innings eater in a year. Add that with Gausman and Bundy and you have a great rotation. Wells isn't going to be that far off too. 

Wow, that’s optimistic.    As discussed yesterday, if I go back to the start of the 2009 season, we had four pitchers who had done great in AA (Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken), the Carolina League pitcher of the year (Arrieta), a young pitcher who’d done very well at Delmarva (Britton), and the top pitcher from the previous year’s draft (Matusz). On paper, that was a way more impressive group than the pitchers we have now, especially at the upper levels.    Of course I’m rooting for our prospects to max out, but I don’t feel we are in a very good position talent-wise.    

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

So if they could find SP outside of Bundy and Gausman who could collectively pitch to 5.5 ERA, this could be a .500 team using those guidelines?

Roughly correct.    It doesn’t seem like it should be that hard to do, does it?    But of course, .500 is not the goal.     

[panick]

17 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Unlike the dark days, we actually have pitching coming along the way. 

Remember the last "cavalry" the O's had?

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Unlike the dark days, we actually have pitching coming along the way. 

That's a hopeful outlook considering our track record of developing starting pitching. We haven't developed an ace since Mussina, we haven't developed an impact starter since Bedard unless Bundy follows his decent debut with a great season. Gausman has been largely disappointing. Matusz flopped. Britton moved to the bullpen. Arrieta was only great once he left. These were highly rated prospects, not unlike the same crop of players in our system now. 

Could we develop them? Sure. Don't hold your breath, though.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

That's a hopeful outlook considering our track record of developing starting pitching. We haven't developed an ace since Mussina, we haven't developed an impact starter since Bedard unless Bundy follows his decent debut with a great season. Gausman has been largely disappointing. Matusz flopped. Britton moved to the bullpen. Arrieta was only great once he left. These were highly rated prospects, not unlike the same crop of players in our system now. 

Could we develop them? Sure. Don't hold your breath, though.

Bundy could be an ace this year.    He has that kind of ability and make up.

[backwardsk]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Roughly correct.    It doesn’t seem like it should be that hard to do, does it?    But of course, .500 is not the goal.     

Of course .500 isn't the goal.  But we may be a better team than 2017, right now, by rolling out the guys currently in our organisation.  I looked at 2017 starts from Ynoa, Asher, Castro, and Aquino.  My scratch math has them with 13 starts, 64.1 IP and a 5.74 ERA.

[osfan83]

So...if the team right now is as good as last years team, does that mean we will only be a game out of the second WC spot on Sept 1st? 

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, backwardsk said:

Of course .500 isn't the goal.  But we may be a better team than 2017, right now, by rolling out the guys currently in our organisation.  I looked at 2017 starts from Ynoa, Asher, Castro, and Aquino.  My scratch math has them with 13 starts, 64.1 IP and a 5.74 ERA.

Cortes interests me.  I still think Castro is best suited for the pen.  Ynoa, Asher and Aquino do not impress.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Bundy could be an ace this year.    He has that kind of ability and make up.

I’d be happy with a half-run improvement in his ERA and 20 more innings.    That would put him in the territory of vintage Tillman.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

So...if the team right now is as good as last years team, does that mean we will only be a game out of the second WC spot on Sept 1st? 

Probably not.    It’s unusual for the second wild card to win only 85 games.    I wouldn’t count on that happening again in 2018.