Help me understand the Orioles brain trust

[gtman55]

I've been watching Orioles baseball since the early 60's. I guess that doesn't make me an expert but I've seen a lot of good O's teams and bad. This off season has me totally confused.

I think most of us will agree that there's a 95% chance that Machado is not signing with us again. And some of us will agree that we should have unloaded Manny for prospects or even traded Britton last year. But we didn't. So, it seems to me that the Orioles front office has decided to go for it this year, versus a rebuild. I don't agree with that plan but it is what it is. But there's a huge problem with that scenario. Our starting pitcher group is horrendous/hideous beyond Bundy and Gausman. And the reality is those two guys would barely be middle of the rotation guys on a good staff. There's no way we can consistently beat a powerhouse team like the Yankees with our starters. Yet, we're basically gonna dumpster dive to fill out the rest of our staff when we need an ace. What good is getting pitchers with a ceiling of 10 or 12 wins?  We need someone who can end losing streaks not just inning eaters.

I know Angelos blew it on Ubaldo and made a huge mistake with Davis and that money spent plays into it. But the only way we compete is with a good group of starters. If not, I say let's blow it up and go with a group of baby birds and build for the future.

 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

I've been watching Orioles baseball since the early 60's. I guess that doesn't make me an expert but I've seen a lot of good O's teams and bad. This off season has me totally confused.

I think most of us will agree that there's a 95% chance that Machado is not signing with us again. And some of us will agree that we should have unloaded Manny for prospects or even traded Britton last year. But we didn't. So, it seems to me that the Orioles front office has decided to go for it this year, versus a rebuild. I don't agree with that plan but it is what it is. But there's a huge problem with that scenario. Our starting pitcher group is horrendous/hideous beyond Bundy and Gausman. And the reality is those two guys would barely be middle of the rotation guys on a good staff. There's no way we can consistently beat a powerhouse team like the Yankees with our starters. Yet, we're basically gonna dumpster dive to fill out the rest of our staff when we need an ace. What good is getting pitchers with a ceiling of 10 or 12 wins?  We need someone who can end losing streaks not just inning eaters.

I know Angelos blew it on Ubaldo and made a huge mistake with Davis and that money spent plays into it. But the only way we compete is with a good group of starters. If not, I say let's blow it up and go with a group of baby birds and build for the future.

 

I'm with you, all-in or some sort of rebuild/reload.

The problem is, let's imagine you are DD, do you have the authority to make those types of moves?

I'd guess no, doesn't have the authority to blow it up, and doesn't have the authority to sign those kinds pitchers to the types of contracts those kinds of pitchers demand.

So if you are DD, your only options are to kind of tread water, to sign the lower tier of starters and pretend to compete, or trade away the farm to try and add impact arms.

The only option that fits all-in is the third option, but that is the riskiest option and if it doesn't work, it'll hurt DD's chances of finding another job. The other two options are safe for DD, he walks at the end of the year and says "hey, I did my best working under PA, took the O's to the playoffs 3 out of 7 seasons after a over a decade of organizational incompetence".

[Can_of_corn]

Angelos doesn't want to cheat the fans by intentionally fielding a bad team (tanking).  He has also put various limits on the avenues with which Dan can improve the team.  

It all makes perfect sense if you are used to fallowing a team owned by Angelos.

On the bright side we are probably in store for more 90 loss seasons in the near future than 100 lost ones.

[gtman55]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Angelos doesn't want to cheat the fans by intentionally fielding a bad team (tanking). 

I think he cheats the fans by not doing the right thing for this franchise long term. This idea of "competing" in the AL East this year will probably net us 70 wins. Ouch.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, gtman55 said:

I think he cheats the fans by not doing the right thing for this franchise long term. This idea of "competing" in this AL East this year will probably net us 70 wins. ouch.

I don't disagree with you, but try convincing him of that.

[gtman55]

Crazy question. We are sure that Angelos is still alive, right? I don't think I've actually seen him speak in years.

[Tx Oriole]

44 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

I've been watching Orioles baseball since the early 60's. I guess that doesn't make me an expert but I've seen a lot of good O's teams and bad. This off season has me totally confused.

I think most of us will agree that there's a 95% chance that Machado is not signing with us again. And some of us will agree that we should have unloaded Manny for prospects or even traded Britton last year. But we didn't. So, it seems to me that the Orioles front office has decided to go for it this year, versus a rebuild. I don't agree with that plan but it is what it is. But there's a huge problem with that scenario. Our starting pitcher group is horrendous/hideous beyond Bundy and Gausman. And the reality is those two guys would barely be middle of the rotation guys on a good staff. There's no way we can consistently beat a powerhouse team like the Yankees with our starters. Yet, we're basically gonna dumpster dive to fill out the rest of our staff when we need an ace. What good is getting pitchers with a ceiling of 10 or 12 wins?  We need someone who can end losing streaks not just inning eaters.

I know Angelos blew it on Ubaldo and made a huge mistake with Davis and that money spent plays into it. But the only way we compete is with a good group of starters. If not, I say let's blow it up and go with a group of baby birds and build for the future.

 

I would rather was the young guys. 

[atomic]

Who knows what Angelo's is thinking.   Who knows why he makes DD trade the international signing bonuses.   Who knows why he won't let DD sign pitchers for more than 3 years but won't let him rebuild.   It's not logical but it is what it is. 

I expect the team to fill it's pitching staff with guys DFA'd by other teams when they have to get down to 25 players.  

 

 

[gtman55]

1 minute ago, cimota said:

Who knows what Angelo's is thinking.   Who knows why he makes DD trade the international signing bonuses.   Who knows why he won't let DD sign pitchers for more than 3 years but won't let him rebuild.   It's not logical but it is what it is.

 

 

Senility?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, gtman55 said:

Senility?

No evidence to support such a claim.  Angelos has run his baseball team this way for years.  Not like we are seeing anything new.

[mdbdotcom]

I"d rather we retool for 2019 - trade Machado and add pitchers who will be ready to help in 2019 - when our young outfielders should be ready, three of the four infield positions will still be set, Sisco and Wynns should be able to handle the catching and Harvey joins the rotation. Maybe even Mountcastle will be ready to contribute. Some of those things likely won't work out as planned, but that's the best case scenario, and I don't think we should give up on the best group of prospects we've had in a long time before they even take the field.

I also don't see blowing it up as a realistic possibility given the number of fans who stayed home during the MacPhail years of futility, plus the fact that half the teams in MLB seem to be in some stage of rebuilding this year. Some of those clubs will put lousy teams on the field and still not get a draft slot that matters. Too many teams racing for the bottom.

 

[mdbdotcom]

On the subject of the brain trust, the problem is that ownership doesn't trust the brains they've hired.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I"d rather we retool for 2019 - trade Machado and add pitchers who will be ready to help in 2019 - when our young outfielders should be ready, three of the four infield positions will still be set, Sisco and Wynns should be able to handle the catching and Harvey joins the rotation. Maybe even Mountcastle will be ready to contribute. Some of those things likely won't work out as planned, but that's the best case scenario, and I don't think we should give up on the best group of prospects we've had in a long time before they even take the field.

I also don't see blowing it up as a realistic possibility given the number of fans who stayed home during the MacPhail years of futility, plus the fact that half the teams in MLB seem to be in some stage of rebuilding this year. Some of those clubs will put lousy teams on the field and still not get a draft slot that matters. Too many teams racing for the bottom.

 

I don't think that is a factor in Angelos' thinking.

What it does mean is that a 90 loss team isn't going to get a lot of help from the draft.

[mdbdotcom]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think that is a factor in Angelos' thinking.

What it does mean is that a 90 loss team isn't going to get a lot of help from the draft.

That line was more an observation on my part of the current landscape, not a comment on PGA's thinking. 

As your sentence in bold implies, there will be some very unhappy losers this year.

[El Gordo]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm with you, all-in or some sort of rebuild/reload.

The problem is, let's imagine you are DD, do you have the authority to make those types of moves?

I'd guess no, doesn't have the authority to blow it up, and doesn't have the authority to sign those kinds pitchers to the types of contracts those kinds of pitchers demand.

So if you are DD, your only options are to kind of tread water, to sign the lower tier of starters and pretend to compete, or trade away the farm to try and add impact arms.

The only option that fits all-in is the third option, but that is the riskiest option and if it doesn't work, it'll hurt DD's chances of finding another job. The other two options are safe for DD, he walks at the end of the year and says "hey, I did my best working under PA, took the O's to the playoffs 3 out of 7 seasons after a over a decade of organizational incompetence".

Also he can leave saying he improved the organization internally, and improved the farm system.