What if Arrieta falls to the O's?

[atomic]

Just now, wildcard said:

Who gives Jake 6 years? Or 5 years ? or 4 years.  Name the team(s).

The Cubs offered Arrieta the same deal Darvish got. Someone will offer him it.  It is absolutely comical that people think he wouldn't get 4 years.   

[TonySoprano]

If you want to know where Arrieta will end up, follow Boras' sycophantic shill, Jon Heyman.

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/

[Aglets]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Answer the question of who is going to sign Jake?   When I try to identify the team looking at who has the money and the need, the O's are right at the top of the list along with the Phillies and Rangers.  Also realize that Boras almost always has his clients sign with the highest bidder.

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/

Short answer:

Brewers, Twins, Nats, Phillies, or Cardinals

 

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Read the OP. I covered that.  If you don't agree please tell me why.

Your original post is comical. Do you go into a BMW dealership and bid 10k on a new BMW 5 series with a sticker price of 73k because it is February and it was a 2017 model?  Arrieta probably won't get what he originally wanted.  But he is going to get more than 3 years at 21 million a year.  

[Redskins Rick]

Jake is not coming to Baltimore.

He wants more money than Peter will sign off on.

Quote

he wasn’t immediately prepared to accept a six-year deal for what was believed to be for a similar annual salary,

 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/

Short answer:

Brewers, Twins, Nats, Phillies, or Cardinals

 

Short Answer:

Not Here.

[MDtransplant757]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Jake is not coming to Baltimore.

He wants more money than Peter will sign off on.

 

That and why would he come back here after how bad the organization was to him last time?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, MDtransplant757 said:

That and why would he come back here after how bad the organization was to him last time?

Money and time has a way of healing wounds.

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Money and time has a way of healing wounds.

I think it would mainly be money for him. 

[Aglets]

FWIW I agree with Heyman that Milwaukee seems to be the most logical landing spot.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Aglets said:

https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-where-does-jake-arrieta-go-now/

Short answer:

Brewers, Twins, Nats, Phillies, or Cardinals

 

My guess is that the Brewers and Twins sign Cobb and Lynn within the week  for 4 year deals.   They don't play Boras waiting game for bigger dollars.  The Nats have a big luxury tax problem.     The Phillies may sign him but not for what Boras wants.  Remember its Andy MacPhail in Philly.   Cards have a good rotation without Arrieta and  are not likely to spend the money.  Even Heyman says that.

[Aglets]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My guess is that the Brewers and Twins sign Cobb and Lynn within the week  for 4 year deals.   They don't play Boras waiting game for bigger dollars.  The Nats have a big luxury tax problem.     The Phillies may sign him but not for what Boras wants.  Remember its Andy MacPhail in Philly.   Cards have a good rotation without Arrieta and  are not likely to spend the money.  Even Heyman says that.

The reasons against the Orioles signing him are at least ten times more significant than anything you cite here for these five teams.

I do not think they are all equally likely (I agree it probably won't be St. Louis or Washington) but what I'm saying is that they are all so much more likely than here.

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, Aglets said:

The reasons against the Orioles signing him are at least ten times more significant than anything you cite here for these five teams.

I do not think they are all equally likely (I agree it probably won't be St. Louis or Washington) but what I'm saying is that they are all so much more likely than here.

Arrieta wants a 5 year deal, and IMO, that's a mistake, but not one that I will worry about, because the Orioles wont go 5 years, even if it was Cy Young himself.

We dont even have to get to the 125 million other reasons, he isnt coming here.

[Tx Oriole]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

No I have not heard anything.  But just look at the situation that is forming.

MLBTR calls the changes of the Twins signing Arrieta as "remote".   They prefer Cobb or Lynn.  I think the Brewers are in the same place.  

The Nats are often thought of as the landing spot for Jake but Rizzo says  "“We have great confidence in our in-house options"  Cole and Fredde.   The Nats are probably already over the luxury tax  for 2018.  The payroll is 178m.    Scherzer AAV is 30m. Strasburg is 25m, and Murphy is 16m  that adds about 17m. So for luxury tax purposes they ar at 195m.   Each team adds 14m for benefits to the luxury tax.  That makes them at 209m   The Nats where over the luxury tax in 2017 so this would be their 2nd year.   Each dollar over the 197m luxury tax limit cost the team 30%.   That mean if Jake gets 21m (like Darvish) then the Nats pay 27m for him.  And the Nets would have no room to add during the season.

The Yankees are in a similar situation.   They are at 161m  add 14m for medical they are at 175m  Add Jake a 21m and they are at 196.   The Yankees need to stay under 197m to break the years of going over the luxury tax which is cost them a 50% add for every dollar over the 197m  limit.   Cashman is on record saying he wants room to add  during the season.     The Yankees signing Jake looks unlikely.

The O's will not go 4 years on Cobb or Lynn.  They do  not like  the medicals of Vargas, Cashner and Garcia.   They may on;y offer one year contracts with an option on those three.  They are competing with the Jays, Twins, Phillies and maybe Angels for these three players.    The O's need three starters.

The O's are at about 126m.  Their opening day payroll last year was 164m,   They are 38m under that.  Plus anything they can defer in a contract. 

Jake has had no recent medical problems.   If Darvish set Jake's  rate at 21m and the O's will go 3 years with a vesting option on a 4th year then that may be the best offer that Jake gets.   The other teams that I think might be interested at that level are the Phillies and Rangers.

Dan likes to wait for the bargains late in the offseason.   This year Jake could be the O's Cruz.  Jake's market looks very thin.

Its all speculation at this time but if the market plays out the way it looks like it might, they O's may have a chance at Jake.

   

Why on earth would Jake want to come back and pitch for the O's? 

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d stay away at almost any price.   I couldn’t bear the thought of giving Arrieta away and watching him win a Cy Young and a WS ring, only to lure him back for a lot of money (even if not $21 mm/yr) and have him suck with us again.   

I agree Frobby.