The free agent offseason that could have been

[Frobby]

Looking at the top 12 players from the debut class of 2011, 10 of whom could have been free agents this winter if their teams hadn’t taken proactive steps to lock them up:

1.   Mike Trout, 6.070 years of service, 55.2 rWAR: Angels locked him up for 6/$144.5 mm before he was eligible for arbitration.

2.   Paul Goldschmidt, 6.059 years of service, 34.8 rWAR: Diamondbacks locked him up a year before he was arb-eligible for 5/$32 mm with a team option for 2019 at $14.5 mm.

3.   Jose Altuve, 6.072 years of service, 28.6 rWAR: Astros locked him up the year before he was arb-eligible for 5/$18.5 mm and a team option for 2019 at $6.5 mm.

5.  Kyle Seager, 6.085 years of service, 26.8 rWAR: Mariners locked him up before he was arb-eligible for 7/$100 mm and a team option for 2022 at $15 mm.

8.    Brandon Crawford, 6.094 years of service, 20.6 rWAR: Giants locked him up for 6/$75 mm with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

9.   Jason Kipnis, 6.069 years of service, 20.4 rWAR:  Indians locked him up one year before arb-eligibility for 6/$52.5 mm, with a team option for 2020 at $16.5 mm.

10.   Matt Carpenter, 6.012 years of service, 20.4 rWAR: Cardinals locked him up a year before arb-eligibility for 6/$52 mm with a team option for 2020 at $18.5 mm.

11.   Brandon Belt, 6.128 years of service, 19.9 rWAR: Giants locked him up before his last year of arb-eligibility for 5/$72.8 mm.

12.   Salvador Perez, 6.050 years of service, 19.3 rWAR: Royals locked him up before his last year of arb-eligibility for 5/$52.5 mm.

Of the three players in the top 12 who I skipped, two of them don’t have six years of service time yet, but they’re both locked up long term — Corey Kluber and Anthony Rizzo.     The only player from the top 12 who wasn’t locked up and went FA was Todd Frazier (6.071 years of service, 22.0 rWAR), who signed for 2/$17 mm with the Mets this offseason.    

[MikeAD]

Great post, really interesting.  Majority of the teams listed here are also perennial winners (LAA, AZ, and Seattle being the exceptions, two of which are really good now).  Three distinct ways to build a team right now. Lock up young talent and get it mostly right, move young talent with 1.5-2 arb years left,  spend a ton of $.  The third bucket is becoming smaller and harder to win by the year.  We seem to do all 3 wrong recently.  

[theocean]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looking at the top 12 players from the debut class of 2011, 10 of whom could have been free agents this winter if their teams hadn’t taken proactive steps to lock them up:

1.   Mike Trout, 6.070 years of service, 55.2 rWAR: Angels locked him up for 6/$144.5 mm before he was eligible for arbitration.

2.   Paul Goldschmidt, 6.059 years of service, 34.8 rWAR: Diamondbacks locked him up a year before he was arb-eligible for 5/$32 mm with a team option for 2019 at $14.5 mm.

3.   Jose Altuve, 6.072 years of service, 28.6 rWAR: Astros locked him up the year before he was arb-eligible for 5/$18.5 mm and a team option for 2019 at $6.5 mm.

5.  Kyle Seager, 6.085 years of service, 26.8 rWAR: Mariners locked him up before he was arb-eligible for 7/$100 mm and a team option for 2022 at $15 mm.

8.    Brandon Crawford, 6.094 years of service, 20.6 rWAR: Giants locked him up for 6/$75 mm with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

9.   Jason Kipnis, 6.069 years of service, 20.4 rWAR:  Indians locked him up one year before arb-eligibility for 6/$52.5 mm, with a team option for 2020 at $16.5 mm.

10.   Matt Carpenter, 6.012 years of service, 20.4 rWAR: Cardinals locked him up a year before arb-eligibility for 6/$52 mm with a team option for 2020 at $18.5 mm.

11.   Brandon Belt, 6.128 years of service, 19.9 rWAR: Giants locked him up before his last year of arb-eligibility for 5/$72.8 mm.

12.   Salvador Perez, 6.050 years of service, 19.3 rWAR: Royals locked him up before his last year of arb-eligibility for 5/$52.5 mm.

Of the three players in the top 12 who I skipped, two of them don’t have six years of service time yet, but they’re both locked up long term — Corey Kluber and Anthony Rizzo.     The only player from the top 12 who wasn’t locked up and went FA was Todd Frazier (6.071 years of service, 22.0 rWAR), who signed for 2/$17 mm with the Mets this offseason.    

Fantastic post. Really demonstrates why it is important to lock up young talent early.