My 25-man roster prediction (as of 3/7/18)

[interloper]

STARTING PITCHERS

1. Kevin Gausman

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Dylan Bundy

4. Chris Tillman

5. Mike Wright

BULLPEN

1. Brad Brach

2. Mychal Givens

3. Darren O'Day

4. Richard Bleier 

5. Miguel Castro

6. Pedro Araujo  

7. Nestor Cortes

LINEUP

1. Tim Beckham - 3B

2. Jonathan Schoop - 2B

3. Manny Machado - SS

4. Adam Jones - CF

5. Chris Davis - 1B

6. Trey Mancini - LF

7. Mark Trumbo - DH

8. Colby Rasmus - RF

9. Caleb Joseph - C

BENCH

1. Chance Sisco - C

2. Danny Valencia - IF/OF

3. Anthony Santander - OF

4. Craig Gentry - OF

 

NOTES

• Gentry beats Rickard, who will go to AAA
• Wright starts out as the 5th starter and Cortes gets his feet wet in long relief
• The team opts to carry Valencia over a traditional UIF, at least initially. Can PH for Rasmus late in game and be replaced by Gentry
• Chance beats Wynns because of the bat and because the O's want him working with Joseph and Russell in the big leagues
• Mesa Jr. doesn't survive Rule 5
• Alvarez will go to AAA and await the fall of Trumbo or a Davis injury
• This is barring any signings such as Walker, Lynn, or Cobb

 

 

 

 

[interloper]

• Hays to AAA for the time being

[interloper]

The O's could go with 6 in the bullpen and add in a traditional UIF to the bench, however that basically rules out their ability to carry two of their Rule 5 guys in the bullpen, which I don't think they will do to start the year. 

[murph]

Just now, interloper said:

The O's could go with 6 in the bullpen and add in a traditional UIF to the bench, however that basically rules out their ability to carry two of their Rule 5 guys in the bullpen, which I don't think they will do to start the year. 

I know Wright is out of options and they will probably keep him, but I almost would prefer they keep Mesa Jr. over Wright.    Cortes of the 5th spot.  But, I am still hoping they even have tougher decisions because of signing Lynn or Cobb. 

[interloper]

Just now, murph said:

I know Wright is out of options and they will probably keep him, but I almost would prefer they keep Mesa Jr. over Wright.    Cortes of the 5th spot.  But, I am still hoping they even tougher decisions because of signing Lynn or Cobb. 

I basically despise Mike Wright, but credit where it's due: he's done just about everything he can to win a job so far. One more good outing and it's just about wrapped up I think. The O's will give him one last chance to see what he can do and the leash will be relatively short.

If the O's make any other signings, things get way more interesting roster-wise. 

[wildbillhiccup]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

• Hays to AAA for the time being

This really makes me sad, but I agree. Trying to get him ABs (to see what he can do) should be a priority. Hays is the future, not Rasmus. 

[interloper]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

This really makes me sad, but I agree. Trying to get him ABs (to see what he can do) should be a priority. Hays is the future, not Rasmus. 

Yeah.. I think the injury set him back, and the presence of Rasmus, Santander, and Gentry make it really tough to find a spot for the moment. He'll be up this year for a good chunk I think. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Hays and Cisco need to be wherever they can get regular playing time.

[interloper]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

Hays and Cisco need to be wherever they can get regular playing time.

Agree on Hays, but I think the O's would rather have Sisco learning from the best at the major league level. He doesn't need reps in AAA, he just needs to soak up the ML environment and work with Joseph and Russell, and catch ML pitchers as much as he can. That's my opinion anyway.

[Bahama O's Fan]

I thought I read one time that they had a special roving instructor for catchers in the minors. Remember when Caleb was considered a defensive liability? Whoever helped him needs to work with Cisco.

[Rene88]

Great list sir-was about to ask everyone's opinion on the roster...

I think Wynn makes it over Cisco because of playing time and more importantly, because of his arm. He has the best cut down rate to 2nd.

I don't think Gentry makes the team (partially hoping too). My guess would be Joey-Buck loves him. He's the new Flaherty. Speaking of Flaherty-remember he has an opt out...I think there is a chance he comes back...

Mesa is not long for this roster, that is for sure. Same with Ynoa and his 2 pitches.

I think Pedro has a great shot to make it after Santander goes back down (assuming he doesn't stay himself). 

I also think there is an above average chance we sign someone not on the team.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Rene88 said:

Great list sir-was about to ask everyone's opinion on the roster...

I think Wynn makes it over Cisco because of playing time and more importantly, because of his arm. He has the best cut down rate to 2nd.

I don't think Gentry makes the team (partially hoping too). My guess would be Joey-Buck loves him. He's the new Flaherty. Speaking of Flaherty-remember he has an opt out...I think there is a chance he comes back...

Mesa is not long for this roster, that is for sure. Same with Ynoa and his 2 pitches.

I think Pedro has a great shot to make it after Santander goes back down (assuming he doesn't stay himself). 

I also think there is an above average chance we sign someone not on the team.

Thanks and I def agree here. Any new signing makes this prediction instantly wrong, pretty much. 

Re: Rickard and Gentry - I think the only guy Buck loves more than Rickard might be Gentry! Lol.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Great list sir-was about to ask everyone's opinion on the roster...

I think Wynn makes it over Cisco because of playing time and more importantly, because of his arm. He has the best cut down rate to 2nd.

I don't think Gentry makes the team (partially hoping too). My guess would be Joey-Buck loves him. He's the new Flaherty. Speaking of Flaherty-remember he has an opt out...I think there is a chance he comes back...

Mesa is not long for this roster, that is for sure. Same with Ynoa and his 2 pitches.

I think Pedro has a great shot to make it after Santander goes back down (assuming he doesn't stay himself). 

I also think there is an above average chance we sign someone not on the team.

Buck seems to be in love with Wynn so I could see this happening too. He's been singing his praises ever since last season. 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Buck seems to be in love with Wynn so I could see this happening too. He's been singing his praises ever since last season. 

That's definitely true. In this case I kind of feel like it's one of those Buck fakeouts in order to take attention away from the real guy. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Just now, interloper said:

That's definitely true. In this case I kind of feel like it's one of those Buck fakeouts in order to take attention away from the real guy. 

Could be, though in Wynns defense he has GREATLY improved the last 2 seasons. Going from a minor league backup who bounced around and looked like organizational depth to getting the starting spot in Bowie, improving as a hitter (though he will never beat Sisco's bat), and maintaining his defense and getting great reports from Britton and Tillman when they threw to him in the rehab starts. Also made a good showing in the Arizona Fall League and the Dominican.

Most of the praise was for his home run. Sisco comes advertised with the bat, Wynns with defense. So if Sisco makes a great defensive play or Wynns does something great offensively, it might get more praise since it's not their "specialty."

I can see Wynns making it this season for his defense (if Buck really does want the backup to be a defensive catcher first) with Sisco coming up later in the season as the starter (Joseph injury or major struggle while Sisco gets the bat going in Norfolk) and transitioning to a Sisco/Wynns 2019.

 

Also, Wright is having a GREAT spring. If he pitches like this during the season, with a good bullpen, that could really help out and possibly get him a good amount of double digit wins.

Mesa Jr. might be gone shortly. Really unimpressive.

Gentry will be on, Rickard will be in Norfolk. If Santander continues the way he has been, it might be tough to send him down, which is a good thing. Rickard will come up if/when Gentry gets hurt.

If the team can off load Trumbo somewhere, Alvarez will make it.

Unless Valencia really struggles and Vielma/Tejada/Sardinas maintain their mediocrity roles, Flaherty still has a spot. The "Machado/Beckham" situation makes the role of a "shortstop necessary" utility guy a small deal.

If another starting pitcher is signed, Castro might go down to AAA and Wright takes his spot as the long reliever/emergency starter.