Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

Nestor Cortes struck out Judge swinging with a 90mph fastball down the middle. Now, he also gave up a bomb to him, but the point is... the Yankees are human and they can be beat.

I won't be happy if Judge continues that level of performance in the regular season.

[Aglets]

We played 50 games last year where we allowed 7 or more runs.  I'm using this as a pseudo-proxy for a DS.  Yea it's not perfect.    Out of those 50, we won 7......or a paltry 14%.

So that means in all the other games, we had a 61% chance of winning.    (that would be a 98 win pace if you could maintain it for a full season)

So let's say that these two dudes give us something like 10 total fewer Disaster Starts than Miley / Ubaldo.  I feel this is a fairly conservative median projection...it could be more or less.   That's 5 extra wins easy.   Add that to a 75 win team, and it's pretty easy to see that with just a few more things breaking our way......we get into WC territory (last year the Twins won a WC spot with 85 wins).  Tillman surely will have a shorter leash, etc.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I won't be happy if Judge continues that level of performance in the regular season.

Of course you wouldn't.

You would be a bit nuts to think he could, hell, not even Ruth could keep that up.

 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I won't be happy if Judge continues that level of performance in the regular season.

I just thought it was funny he got struck out by Cortes. He BETTER have hit a home run the next time he faced him.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Of course you wouldn't.

You would be a bit nuts to think he could, hell, not even Ruth could keep that up.

 

Ruth never got to face Tillman. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I just thought it was funny he got struck out by Cortes. He BETTER have hit a home run the next time he faced him.

Guys get struck out by position players every year.

 

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Nite said:

How many of the 30 losses were due to the fact they had 0 chance to get back into it? that's what I'm talking about. No I'm not assuming these magically turn into wins. But if 15 of those 30 were 0 chance in hell of winning, this year you can expect to win 7 or 8 of them right?

I think that’s a realistic hope.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Guys get struck out by position players every year.

 

Chris Davis struck out Adrian Gonzalez. A fine moment.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Aglets said:

We played 50 games last year where we allowed 7 or more runs.  I'm using this as a pseudo-proxy for a DS.  Yea it's not perfect.    Out of those 50, we won 7......or a paltry 14%.

So that means in all the other games, we had a 61% chance of winning.    (that would be a 98 win pace if you could maintain it for a full season)

I used to track the 7+ run games on here, back in the Dark Years.    I agree it’s not a bad proxy.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

Chris Davis struck out Adrian Gonzalez. A fine moment.

Give him half a chance and Weams will tell you how Frenchie struck out Nolan.

[webbrick2010]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't care if they think I'm anti-Oriole. 

I do not think this is a playoff team.  I expect Tillman to be a dumpster fire with Cashner barely better.  I expect one of the other three to have some sort of significant injury.  That leaves three guys from the reserves having a significant number of starts.  I think the bullpen will be exposed due to over use.  I don't think they get on base enough on offense and I am not impressed by the team defense.

 

Yep, they bad

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

Yep, they bad

They might be OK.  I won't be shocked if they finish around 500.  I think they are better than the Rays are right now.

But I don't see the playoffs.

[Aglets]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I used to track the 7+ run games on here, back in the Dark Years.    I agree it’s not a bad proxy.   

Thanks.  Interesting fact..........in 2016 we had 36 games of allowing 7 or more runs.    Pretty big difference from not that long ago.   We won 6 of them (17%) so that kind of reinforces the percentage argument.  And of course we won 89 games overall that year, and made the playoffs.

[Hank Scorpio]

Occam's Razor.

[ArtVanDelay]

2 hours ago, Nite said:

You're saying Cobb can't single handedly be 10 games better than Ubaldo? 

Of course he can’t.   That’s absurd.