2018 Dylan Bundy

[Cumberbundy]

Bundy needs a much better change up, he was throwing first pitch breaking balls to get ahead (all 4 batters faced in the first were started with breaking balls) and two strike fastballs that he was getting past anyone early. He gave up the home run on an 0-1 fb after making Piscotty look ridiculous on a slider, he got away with a couple 2 strike fbs to Davis in the first and he didn’t get his 2 strike fastball to Olson up but got an 0-2 ground out on it. 

Bundy doesn’t have a curve some nights but he was putting it where he wanted tonight. Unfortunately he doesn’t put it in the dirt, he threw a 2-2 curve to lead off the 3rd that was absolutely obliterated; He followed that AB by throwing an 0-2 slider in the dirt for a K. The 3rd batter in the 3rd he was back to the top of the order and threw a first pitch slider for strike one, a 2nd pitch slider for strike 2, a 3rd pitch mistake slider in the zone was fouled off, a high FB at 93 mph was fouled off, another high FB at 92 was fouled off, a 2-2 slider was take...in the strike zone...but Bundy was squeezed out of a K (the entire ball was in the zone), then he threw a change up in the dirt for ball 2, then a hanging slider was fouled off, then a brilliant slider was thrown off the plate for a swinging strike 3 in a great battle v a hot hitter. Chapman was started with a nice change on the outside corner with screw ball action, but it was 87 mph, not much variance but decent movement in the zone...that was followed by a filthy slider for a swinging strike 2, and that AB was finished with another slider out of the zone for a swinging strike 3.

To start the 4th Bundy threw a 1-0 changeup off the plate that Lowrie weakly pulled to first, he then started Davis with a slider for strike 1 and a high FB for a ground out, then Bundy started Olson with an ugly change but got his 3rd 2 pitch out of the inning on a 91moh FB that missed the glove by 3ft but resulted in a fly out to left.

On to the fifth, a first pitch hanging curve got a called strike 1, and the AB ended on a ground out induced by a slider. He started the next AB by attempting to hit the outside corner with a FB that ran up and in for a check swing strike 1, he followed that by trying to go up and in but missing down the middle for another foul ball, then on pitch 3 he hit the glove up and in to make it 1-2, and on 1-2 a fairly weak grounder got by Nunez, off his glove, for a weak double, but so far Bundy had only put one pitch where he wanted in the inning. With a man in scoring position Bundy reached back for 93mph on the first pitch, but he missed the glove again...he tried to go down and away but that fastball was right down Broadway, fortunately he had a little more on it but the location allowed it to be hit for a line drive single the other way. Manny Machado turns both of those hits into outs, that’s the difference in that inning, our pitchers don’t get away with much, Bundy didn’t hit his spot and a far inferior defensive presence could make the plays a Manny could, we obviously lost a lot when we moved Manny off of 3rd. Bundy starts Phegley with an up and in curve ball that he wanted down and away...still hasn’t hit his spot in the 5th...he then misses by 2 ft again with a FB that he wants to get down and away but ends up in the upper inside corner for a foul ball, then on 0-2 he wasted a slider too far out of the zone, and on 1-2 they went back inside with a well placed FB for strike 3 looking...the ball wasn’t on the corner, but it surprised the batter and Bundy finished that AB by hitting the glove for the first time in the inning. With 2 outs Bundy throws a right on right first pitch change up, 88mph (his preceding pitch was a 91moh fb) that was outside for ball 1, that was followed by a brilliant swing and miss slider, the 3rd pitch was a fastball too far inside for ball 2, on 2-1 he got a curve ball called for him that was a little outside to make it 2-2...then a check swing on a slider made it 3-2, and he missed on 3-2 with a slider that was meant to be down and away but ended down and in...great movement got a swinging strike 3. 

On to the 6th, Bundy missed way up and in, follows with a fb down the middle, misses by 2ft outside, throws an ugly 2-1 hanging slider, and get a strike out on another hanging slider. Chapman, like Donaldson, just can’t see the slider and was way out in front of it, the pitch worked like a change up, it wasn’t a good one. Then he starts Lowrie by missing badly with a curve and badly with a fb to fall behind 2-0, then Bundy throws a change, that doesn’t move at all, right down the middle for a swing and miss...nice deception but not a good mlb change up, then on 1-2 Bundy breaks Lowries bat with a fb down the middle...right down the middle. Bundy starts Davis with a right on right change up to the outside corner for a swing and a miss at 83mph, then he got a called strike at the letters, then a hanging slider is hit into left for a single. After that pitch Bundy shook his arm out, I didn’t particularly like that in conjunction with seeing him miss his spots so frequently and the slider failing to get where Bundy wanted it the last 10 times he had thrown it. Bundy starts Olson by missing with a FB down the middle, Olson lucked in to a check swing single to 3rd with no one playing 3rd. Bundy continued the trend, he missed pitch one by 5 feet, he attempted to go down and away with a slider that ended way up and in (GT called the pitch low for a ball, as only he would), Joseph sets up down and away and Bundy kinda got it there with a fairly lame slider that was fouled off, one 1-1 Caleb set up in under the hands and Bundy missed right down the middle with a 93mph fb that, thankfully, Piscotty wasn’t looking for, that’s a 3 run jack waiting to happen...

 

...then, 1 strike away from finishing the inning off, Bundy threw a cutter, that was not his slider, that pitch moved 6 feet across, it was the filthiest pitch of the night, he didn’t throw anything else that moved like that did, he made Piscotty look ridiculous, that looked like a wiffle ball; I watched it in slow motion and it started cutting 30 feet from the mound, it was absolutely filthy. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

I would like to see Bundy develop his changeup.  IMO, he's essentially a two pitch pitcher, fastball and slider.  The slider is great, the fastball, as I mentioned and posted a link earlier, is the worst in the game.  

Fangraphs shows that he's thrown 1158 fastballs this year, 615 sliders, 245 changeups, 226 sinkers, 213 curveballs.  Fangraphs also show that he's given up 18 homers off his fastball, which makes sense because he's thrown it almost twice as much as any other pitch.  He's given up 8 homers off the slider, 7 off the changeup despite throwing it almost 400 times less.

The slider is a true out pitch, 101 strikeouts on sliders.  I am not sure where it ranks among the best in the game but it has to be near the top.  Batters are hitting .176 off it.  Batters are hitting .302 against the fastball and a whopping .346 against his changeup.  No wonder he hardly throws it.

But it's obvious that Bundy isn't going to be the electric high 90s guy with a dominant fastball that can really get by on two pitches.  If that fastball is going to sit at 92, IMO he really needs a third option.  I don't want to use the terms "finesse pitcher" or "junkballer" but he's closer to having to get by in a crafty way like Jamie Moyer rather than be a dominant Scherzer type.  Obviously those are polar opposites but Bundy, IMO, is leaning more towards Moyer.  He's not overpowering anyone with his heater yet somehow has a 9.6k rate this year.  He's only struck out 32 batters on fastballs.  

So, I think he's gotta work on that changeup.  He's got a great breaking pitch that's swing and miss, now I think he's gotta be able to upset a batters timing in a better way.  Make that fastball look a little faster and maybe be able to sneak it by batters a bit more.  Get batters out in front, try to initiate weaker contact.  

I am sure some of you have seen that great documentary "Fastball".  If you haven't, check it out, I am pretty sure it's on Netflix. I watched it with my dad the other day, I've watched it a bunch of times.  One of the parts that always strikes me is when they talk about 92 mph vs. 99 mph.  Mike Schmidt, Derek Jeter all talk about what a big difference it is.  The guy making the doc asks Schmidt the difference between the two and he holds his hands up about a foot and a half apart and says "About this much."  Then they show a side by side view of 99 vs 92, IIRC, it's even further than what Schmidt estimated.

If you guys haven't signed up for Joe Posnanski's blog, I highly recommend it.  He's on Patreon now so it's paid content but he's probably the only current sportswriter that I think is worth paying for.  3 or 5 bucks a month.  He's got a top 100 player countdown that he's doing, one column for each of the 100 greatest players and they're fantastic reads.  Anyway, at #97 he's got Johan Santana.  It's a really excellent writeup, a reminder of how truly great he was.  I didn't realize it but Santana was up for HoF election this year and fell off the ballot which is incredible to me after being reminded what a dominant pitcher he was.

Posnanski talks about how he got hammered in the minor leagues and the developed a changeup:

Quote

Santana had been toying with his change-up for a while, but he got serious about it in Minnesota. Perfecting it became an obsession. He walked around with a baseball wherever he went, and just practiced his grip hour after hour, day after day. “A baseball is my partner,” he told The New York Times. “I have to keep it with me at all times. We have 162 games a year, plus spring training. You spend more than half the year with a baseball in your hand. You can’t forget that.”

Santana’s circle change was a wonder not unlike the Grand Canyon. From afar — say from the stands or the press box — it can be hard sometimes to figure out exactly what makes a pitch so devastating. With Santana’s change-up, you always knew. The thing practically stopped in mid-air. “It just comes to the plate like a fastball,” Jason Giambi said, “and falls off.”

If I am McDowell (or whichever pitching coach gets hired this offseason) I am telling Bundy to do exactly that.  Get a really good feel for that grip.  Keep that ball in your hand all day, every day.  Mess with it.  Circle change or Vulcan?  Maybe even a good old school palm-ball.   Whatever throwing program he's doing this offseason, half of the throws/pitches need to be with that grip.  

If Bundy remains essentially a two-pitch pitcher, I don't have much hope.  He really, really needs to develop that changeup.   

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

Bundy needs a much better change up,

 

Look at you and me sharing a brain.   

I don't know why he wastes any time with a curveball, the slider is great.  Doesn't need another breaking offering.

[bobmc]

41 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would like to see Bundy develop his changeup.  IMO, he's essentially a two pitch pitcher, fastball and slider.  The slider is great, the fastball, as I mentioned and posted a link earlier, is the worst in the game.  

Fangraphs shows that he's thrown 1158 fastballs this year, 615 sliders, 245 changeups, 226 sinkers, 213 curveballs.  Fangraphs also show that he's given up 18 homers off his fastball, which makes sense because he's thrown it almost twice as much as any other pitch.  He's given up 8 homers off the slider, 7 off the changeup despite throwing it almost 400 times less.

The slider is a true out pitch, 101 strikeouts on sliders.  I am not sure where it ranks among the best in the game but it has to be near the top.  Batters are hitting .176 off it.  Batters are hitting .302 against the fastball and a whopping .346 against his changeup.  No wonder he hardly throws it.

But it's obvious that Bundy isn't going to be the electric high 90s guy with a dominant fastball that can really get by on two pitches.  If that fastball is going to sit at 92, IMO he really needs a third option.  I don't want to use the terms "finesse pitcher" or "junkballer" but he's closer to having to get by in a crafty way like Jamie Moyer rather than be a dominant Scherzer type.  Obviously those are polar opposites but Bundy, IMO, is leaning more towards Moyer.  He's not overpowering anyone with his heater yet somehow has a 9.6k rate this year.  He's only struck out 32 batters on fastballs.  

So, I think he's gotta work on that changeup.  He's got a great breaking pitch that's swing and miss, now I think he's gotta be able to upset a batters timing in a better way.  Make that fastball look a little faster and maybe be able to sneak it by batters a bit more.  Get batters out in front, try to initiate weaker contact.  

I am sure some of you have seen that great documentary "Fastball".  If you haven't, check it out, I am pretty sure it's on Netflix. I watched it with my dad the other day, I've watched it a bunch of times.  One of the parts that always strikes me is when they talk about 92 mph vs. 99 mph.  Mike Schmidt, Derek Jeter all talk about what a big difference it is.  The guy making the doc asks Schmidt the difference between the two and he holds his hands up about a foot and a half apart and says "About this much."  Then they show a side by side view of 99 vs 92, IIRC, it's even further than what Schmidt estimated.

If you guys haven't signed up for Joe Posnanski's blog, I highly recommend it.  He's on Patreon now so it's paid content but he's probably the only current sportswriter that I think is worth paying for.  3 or 5 bucks a month.  He's got a top 100 player countdown that he's doing, one column for each of the 100 greatest players and they're fantastic reads.  Anyway, at #97 he's got Johan Santana.  It's a really excellent writeup, a reminder of how truly great he was.  I didn't realize it but Santana was up for HoF election this year and fell off the ballot which is incredible to me after being reminded what a dominant pitcher he was.

Posnanski talks about how he got hammered in the minor leagues and the developed a changeup:

If I am McDowell (or whichever pitching coach gets hired this offseason) I am telling Bundy to do exactly that.  Get a really good feel for that grip.  Keep that ball in your hand all day, every day.  Mess with it.  Circle change or Vulcan?  Maybe even a good old school palm-ball.   Whatever throwing program he's doing this offseason, half of the throws/pitches need to be with that grip.  

If Bundy remains essentially a two-pitch pitcher, I don't have much hope.  He really, really needs to develop that changeup.   

@weams HHP?  Great stuff Moose!  Why I pay for content here (so I can give you props) .

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, bobmc said:

@weams HHP?  Great stuff Moose!  Why I pay for content here (so I can give you props) .

Nah, I prefer to be snarky and posting gifs   But thanks!

[bobmc]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, I prefer to be snarky and posting gifs   But thanks!

I still have your photo of Nickie on my garage wall in FL - that's my "den".

[Cumberbundy]

39 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Look at you and me sharing a brain.   

I don't know why he wastes any time with a curveball, the slider is great.  Doesn't need another breaking offering.

It (his curve) is his lone offering under 83mph — changes the eye level a bit, and it’s the one pitch he can throw in the zone that isn’t straight; I don’t know what his % of sliders in the zone are, but I don’t think he throws many with the intent of getting a called strike like he does with the first pitch curve. 

The change up is a high school pitch, he just splits his fingers a bit and throws it the same as his fb, some have come out as high as 87-88mph with a 91mph fb. His change fades occasionally and runs away from lefties on occasion, but he can’t do anything reliable with it. It’s an atrocious pitch, it was decent when he first came up but has digressed. I can’t believe a guy who can make a baseball move - like Bundy can with that slider and with his still elite spin rate - can’t sort out a very good change up. He has to find a new grip. 

I don’t believe he throws a cutter, as @Luke-OH has mentioned, the slider he features now, which was atrocious after the 4th inning last night but still getting outs, is a different pitch he’s come up with. His best pitches were a 98mph fb and a cutter, now he has neither but had the best slider in baseball, he’s a magician...that’s absolutely remarkable to me, the guy loses both of the pitches that were ++, is forced to learn to pitch as the mlb level, and now has a different ++ offering. Last night, before Piscotty came up with 2 outs and 2 on, Caleb talked to Bundy ....Dylan hadn’t hit the glove in 2 innings, his slider had lost its bite...I think they decided to go with the cutter if he got to 2 strikes. Bundy was brutal in the last 2 innings but he got away with 20 consecutive mistakes (that’s not an exaggeration, it was probably closer to 30), but the second he got to 2 strikes on the last batter he was going to face, Bundy threw the best pitch he had thrown all night, it had more horizontal movement (I imagine this can be verified by pitch fx), than anything he’s thrown in a month, it looked like a wiffle ball. Fangraphs rated the O’s home plate cam the best in the game, if you watch that pitch in slow motion you see it start to make its first sharp move about 30 ft out of the hand, it looked headed towards the middle of the plate immediately but it moved outside 3-5 feet. That’s not his slider. His slider had been backing up and hanging, even when it was sharp it was closer to a split than a cutter, that last pitch was Bundy pulling out an old friend imo. If he could throw that, any time, with that movement, he’s something special. That pitch and a + change up gets us a package of the finest meats and cheeses the world has ever seen. 

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I still have your photo of Nickie on my garage wall in FL - that's my "den".

That was a good day!  Meeting up at Romantica's deli in Great Falls on that snowy day...what, 9, 10 years ago?   Sadly that place is no longer there.   That is one of my favorite photos I've ever taken.  I got a lot of good ones of Nick but that one sticks out.

 

11 minutes ago, Cy Bundy said:

It (his curve) is his lone offering under 83mph — changes the eye level a bit, and it’s the one pitch he can throw in the zone that isn’t straight; I don’t know what his % of sliders in the zone are, but I don’t think he throws many with the intent of getting a called strike like he does with the first pitch curve. 

The change up is a high school pitch, he just splits his fingers a bit and throws it the same as his fb, some have come out as high as 87-88mph with a 91mph fb. His change fades occasionally and runs away from lefties on occasion, but he can’t do anything reliable with it. It’s an atrocious pitch, it was decent when he first came up but has digressed. I can’t believe a guy who can make a baseball move - like Bundy can with that slider and with his still elite spin rate - can’t sort out a very good change up. He has to find a new grip. 

I don’t believe he throws a cutter, as @Luke-OH has mentioned, the slider he features now, which was atrocious after the 4th inning last night but still getting outs, is a different pitch he’s come up with. His best pitches were a 98mph fb and a cutter, now he has neither but had the best slider in baseball, he’s a magician...that’s absolutely remarkable to me, the guy loses both of the pitches that were ++, is forced to learn to pitch as the mlb level, and now has a different ++ offering. Last night, before Piscotty came up with 2 outs and 2 on, Caleb talked to Bundy ....Dylan hadn’t hit the glove in 2 innings, his slider had lost its bite...I think they decided to go with the cutter if he got to 2 strikes. Bundy was brutal in the last 2 innings but he got away with 20 consecutive mistakes (that’s not an exaggeration, it was probably closer to 30), but the second he got to 2 strikes on the last batter he was going to face, Bundy threw the best pitch he had thrown all night, it had more horizontal movement (I imagine this can be verified by pitch fx), than anything he’s thrown in a month, it looked like a wiffle ball. Fangraphs rated the O’s home plate cam the best in the game, if you watch that pitch in slow motion you see it start to make its first sharp move about 30 ft out of the hand, it looked headed towards the middle of the plate immediately but it moved outside 3-5 feet. That’s not his slider. His slider had been backing up and hanging, even when it was sharp it was closer to a split than a cutter, that last pitch was Bundy pulling out an old friend imo. If he could throw that, any time, with that movement, he’s something special. That pitch and a + change up gets us a package of the finest meats and cheeses the world has ever seen. 

That's some good info.  Yeah, if there's not enough separation between the fastball and the change it doesn't make a difference.  And I agree that it's odd for someone who has a natural feel for pitching to not be able to get a better feel for a changeup. 

This will sound really dumb, maybe his hands are too small to split his fingers adequately?  He is not a big guy, I can imagine he doesn't have the hand size to grip it like that by spreading his fingers wide.   If that's the case, I say he should palm it and just put it further in the back of his hand.  Fastballs and sliders are thrown at the fingertips, a change works because you're choking it and it comes out slower cause it's in the back of your hand.  

One thing as I was wondering when I was typing my previous post is...if anyone keeps track of pitch records not from a balls/strikes and location perspective but from the perspective of being able to hit the catcher's glove.

You bring up a good point, he hadn't hit the glove in two innings.  Say Joseph sets up low and away on the outside corner to a righty but Bundy misses low and in on the inside black of the plate but gets a strike on a swing and a miss.  That's a huge miss from a command perspective, 18 inches.  Now maybe if Bundy hit that target the batter drills it to the RF gap for a double.  But for our arguments sake, he's not spotting it where it was supposed to be, yet it still looks good cause it's a strike

But that doesn't really get represented anywhere from where I can tell, maybe I am wrong.  If you look at the strikes/balls ratio, you can't tell that he missed 18 inches.  I don't think pitchfx represents that anywhere.  

If we're going to make a ginormous deal out of pitch framing, I think a deal should be made out of how many inches a catcher has to move a glove from the initial target to where the pitch ends up.  Maybe not for breaking balls but definitely for fastballs.  

[Frobby]

Funny, when Bundy joined the team in 2016, I thought both his change and curve were pretty outstanding.    At the time, his FB had more velocity and he wasn’t using the slider at all.   But as he’s lost FB velocity, it seems his change is less effective.   He previously had a 9.0-9.2 mph separation between the two pitches and now it’s in the 7.6-7.7 range.

[OriolesMagic83]

What happened to Bundy's cutter?  He was discouraged from throwing it throughout the minors, but it was his best pitch when he was drafted.  His fastball is like a batting practice pitch, so he needs to throw that less and replace it with the cutter.  Is that a reasonable idea?

[Frobby]

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

What happened to Bundy's cutter?  He was discouraged from throwing it throughout the minors, but it was his best pitch when he was drafted.  His fastball is like a batting practice pitch, so he needs to throw that less and replace it with the cutter.  Is that a reasonable idea?

From what I’ve read, his “cutter” is now his “slider.”   

[Luke-OH]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From what I’ve read, his “cutter” is now his “slider.”   

It’s a different pitch with different movement qualities. Whether that’s due to him throwing it slower with his velocity down across the board or if he throws it differently is an open question. It looks like he throws it differently though.

[Frobby]

Bundy really has been a Jekyll and Hyde this year.   He’s made 16 starts of 5.2 innings or more, averaging 6.63 innings and a 2.29 ERA in those games.   In the other 12, he’s thrown  4.17 innings a game to an ERA of 12.42!   However, only three of his 16 good starts have come after June 23.    

Despite his struggles,  I still believe in the kid.

 

[sevastras]

I saw him as the next Roger Clemens, then he lost that velocity after tj. I think he has been frustrated this year(his career) because he is a bulldog of a competitor and his body hasn’t cooperated. I agree, adding a circle change would do wonders for him. Question is, is he willing to change from what he use to know as a power pitcher to a crafty pitcher. CC Sabathia type revamp  

 

[Ohfan67]

I'm very happy that he pitched well last night. For the past month to six weeks I was trying to rouse support for Bundy in this and other threads by focusing on his strikeout rate, which has stayed elite all season. But I was beginning to lose faith after so many poundings. He largely kept the ball in the yard last night. If he can do that, then he can still be an excellent starting pitcher.