2018 MLB Draft Discussion

[Luke-OH]

I’m going to try to have some draft-related content out for you all in the next week or two.

So I figured it’s a good time to start up some draft discussion.

Who do you all like?

Targets at 11?

Targets at 37?

Later round or under the radar names?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

SS, 3B, and of course pitching seem priorities.

You don't draft for need with the MLB draft.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

SS, 3B, and of course pitching seem priorities.

I agree with COC, but there are a handful of SS/3B types who may happen to be the best talent available when the O’s pick.

Bohm - college 3B, likely to stick there average, 60/70 raw pop, plus one of the best contact hitters in college baseball.

Turang - true SS, speed, advanced bat, but may lack power

De Sedas - HS SS May have to move to 3B, potential for a good bat, but not polished.

 Eierman - college SS power potential

Gorman - HS 3B big raw power, bat speed, has some contact issues, 1B risk.

All possibilities at 11, although Bohm and maybe Turang are the only ones I’d want to take there. Bohm will likely be gone by then unfortunately.

Edwards

Groshans

India 

All likely to be around near 37. 

Edwards is a true shortstop type.

India is a lower ceiling polished college 3B.

Groshans is a big skinny projectable HS SS likely destined for 3B who has some considerable upside with the bat.

Then there is Madrigal who is a polished college 2B who wakes up raking but could probably handle SS, he’s got great hands and range, but a fringe arm for SS. He’ll probably go in the top 10 picks though.

A guy I like who might be a stretch at 37, he’s not that highly regarded by the industry is Blaze Alexander, HS SS destined for 3B but he could be plus there. Huge arm. Projectable body and some pop and bat speed currently, likely to grow into more.

 

[panick]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't draft for need with the MLB draft.

Didn't the Orioles use three of their top ten picks on catchers the year before Wieters was scheduled to be a free agent? Were they all the BPA?

I agree with birdwatcher that there are needs at particular positions that need to be addressed. Do the O's have a 3B or SS in the minors that looks like they could be even average major leaguers at those positions in the next 3 years? Mountcastle was drafted as a SS, even though scouts said he would not be able to play SS. He may have been the BPA, but now he seems to be a player without a position.

It seems as if the O's best position prospects are outfielders. Given the organizational holes at 3B and SS, I don't think it would make sense to draft another OF just because he's the BPA.

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, panick said:

Didn't the Orioles use three of their top ten picks on catchers the year before Wieters was scheduled to be a free agent? Were they all the BPA?

I agree with birdwatcher that there are needs at particular positions that need to be addressed. Do the O's have a 3B or SS in the minors that looks like they could be even average major leaguers at those positions in the next 3 years? Mountcastle was drafted as a SS, even though scouts said he would not be able to play SS. He may have been the BPA, but now he seems to be a player without a position.

It seems as if the O's best position prospects are outfielders. Given the organizational holes at 3B and SS, I don't think it would make sense to draft another OF just because he's the BPA.

If you have the same future grade on two players and one is a SS/3B, then you go that way, but otherwise, you take the better player.

You can always trade a good prospect, so get the best ones you can and figure out what to do with them later.

To expand on the thought, if the timetable you are looking at is the next 3 years, then you are limited to college SS/3B. There are only 7 of those players in the recent 2080 baseball top 125 draft rankings. Of those 7 players, 5 aren't locks to stay at SS/3B. The 2 that should stay there are Eierman SS or 3B and India 3B. Neither of those guys are worth taking at 11 and both may be gone by 37. So there is the difficulty in targeting certain types.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, panick said:

Didn't the Orioles use three of their top ten picks on catchers the year before Wieters was scheduled to be a free agent? Were they all the BPA?

I agree with birdwatcher that there are needs at particular positions that need to be addressed. Do the O's have a 3B or SS in the minors that looks like they could be even average major leaguers at those positions in the next 3 years? Mountcastle was drafted as a SS, even though scouts said he would not be able to play SS. He may have been the BPA, but now he seems to be a player without a position.

It seems as if the O's best position prospects are outfielders. Given the organizational holes at 3B and SS, I don't think it would make sense to draft another OF just because he's the BPA.

Would you pick a HS catcher, who only had one year of catching experience, because your starting catcher was due to leave?  Sisco was the first of those catchers selected and there was no way he could have conceivably have been viewed as someone that could take over when Wieters left.  There is no HS catching equivalent of Machado.

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Maybe you reach for Eierman IF you are convinced he will be a solid MLB starter.

It'd be impossible for me to take Eierman if any of Bohm, Kelenic, Mize, Hankins, Madrigal, and Liberatore are available. It'd probably be hard for me to take him over Stewart, Winn, Gilbert, Turang, or Swaggerty as well.

[DirtyBird]

Would it be possible to get first and last names or some links, so we can reference these dudes?

[MachoMachadoMan]

MLB Pipeline rankings and write-ups are a good reference for the top talent.  

I was skimming through this list the other day and Nick Madrigal jumped off the page for me. Of course we're all infatuated today with the "next Jose Altuve" but maybe lightning does strike twice with a short, speedy grinder with insane on-base skills. Was interested in Jackson Kowar for obvious eye-popping measurables at 6-5 and sitting in the mid-90s but the phrase "his command should improve" scares me. 

But you could give me Travis Swaggerty at 11 and Blaze Alexander at 37 and I'll be happy for the great baseball names. 

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Would it be possible to get first and last names or some links, so we can reference these dudes?

My bad, sometimes I forget that I'm overly obsessive about this type of stuff and these names aren't household names.

MLB Pipeline is a good source, 2080 Baseball as well. I linked their top 125 rankings in an earlier post, all of these guys are somewhere on that list, most with video. 

Here it is again, https://2080baseball.com/2018/04/2018-mlb-draft-ranking-the-top-125/

Casey Mize

Jarred Kelenic

Ethan Hankins

Travis Swaggerty

Nick Madrigal

Carter Stewart

Alec Bohm

Matthew Liberatore

Logan Gilbert

Nander De Sedas

Brice Turang

Cole Winn

Nolan Gorman

Jeremy Eierman

Jordan Groshans

Xavier Edwards

Jonathan India

Blaze Alexander

I think that's all the guys I mentioned.

Edit: This is definitely not my ranking or preference list, just guys I've mentioned.

[hoosiers]

I like Kelenic a lot.  It would be nice if he were still there at 1-11.  That would be a great bet to add to the system. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I like Kelenic a lot.  It would be nice if he were still there at 1-11.  That would be a great bet to add to the system. 

Yeah, him and Bohm are my favorites. All the pitchers have some questions, although there is a lot of big upside. Bohm is going to hit and his body and defense have improved to the point that he's a good chance to stay at 3B.

[panick]

On 4/16/2018 at 1:21 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Would you pick a HS catcher, who only had one year of catching experience, because your starting catcher was due to leave?  Sisco was the first of those catchers selected and there was no way he could have conceivably have been viewed as someone that could take over when Wieters left.  There is no HS catching equivalent of Machado.

So are you saying that those catchers were the best players available?

I never said that any of those catchers would take over as soon as Wieters left. You say that you don't draft for need. Were there any catchers in the O's system back then that were expected to make it to the majors? Drafting 3 catchers that early seems to indicate the O's didn't think there were good enough catchers in the system, and that's why they used early picks to get three more. That sounds like drafting for need to me.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, panick said:

So are you saying that those catchers were the best players available?

I never said that any of those catchers would take over as soon as Wieters left. You say that you don't draft for need. Were there any catchers in the O's system back then that were expected to make it to the majors? Drafting 3 catchers that early seems to indicate the O's didn't think there were good enough catchers in the system, and that's why they used early picks to get three more. That sounds like drafting for need to me.

I don't know enough about the draft to tell you if Heim was the BPA at 129 of the 2013 draft.  I know I didn't see where any of them were regarded as a big reach.  You always draft a disproportion amount of Catchers, Center Fielders and Short Stops compared to other position players.

Now when you say they drafted by need because they evidently didn't have enough minor league catchers in the system.  Yes, I do think the draft is used to fill out deficiencies in the minor leagues.

When I said you don't draft from need I was talking about need on the ML roster.  I wasn't talking about organizational depth.  If they need enough catchers to fill out their rosters they might make drafting some a priority.  After all a large part of the draft is about the minor league rosters with most kinds having no realistic shot at a ML career.

I don't think they went into the 2013 draft saying, we need to draft Wieters' replacement.

 

[Luke-OH]

Fangraphs updated draft rankings, very different from 2080 in places. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/