You are the Assistant GM: Trade Manny exercise

[weams]

9 hours ago, mcneck said:

Trade any vet with value

Play the kids

Keep Mancini and Schoop as part of your core

Done 

What kids? The ones who are having a poor year at AA? 

[Jagwar]

54 minutes ago, weams said:

What kids? The ones who are having a poor year at AA? 

Maybe he was actually talking about the children of our current players. 

[weams]

8 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Maybe he was actually talking about the children of our current players. 

Well, you need to exclude all minor league players older than Manny Machado from that moniker. As well as Joey.

But back to the AGM talk!

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I've used one very similar to the one on the bottom.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've used one very similar to the one on the bottom.

I think I do recall. 

[Sessh]

I was going to try to do this, but I got sidetracked with the idea of trying to figure out a way to trade Chris Davis and get premium young talent in return. I can really only come up with one possibility and I don't really know how feasible it is, but it does involve the Orioles taking on a lot more money than what they are paying Davis now. The only way I can come up with is trading Davis's bad contract for an even worse contract, being willing to pay that contract in full and in return for doing so, obtain at least one high end prospect in return. For example (and be gentle, I'm sure there's holes in this that I haven't thought of besides the obvious that the Orioles are unlikely to ever take on more money like this)

What if the Orioles traded Davis to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera?

Cabrera is owed $30MM a year through 2021 and $32MM a year for 2022 and 2023 with mutual options for the next two years. Davis is owed $21MM a year through 2022 plus $42MM that is deferred from 2023-2037. So, if say, these contracts were swapped as is and each club would pay these contracts in full up to the time Davis' contract runs out with Detroit paying half of Cabrera's final year and the Orioles paying all deferred money owed to Davis, the Tigers would save about $63MM over the course of these contracts; $9MM a year for 2018-2021, $11MM in 2022 and $16MM in 2023.

The only question is how much are prospects "worth" in dollars and would they be worth enough to make this a worthwhile deal for the Orioles?

The Tigers would probably be thrilled to have the opportunity to not only unload Cabrera's contract, but do so without having to pay the majority of it and save $63MM in the deal. When I think of whether or not I would do that deal if it meant I had to give up some premium talent from my system, I think I probably would. The Tigers have four top-100 pitching prospects in their top five, so would I give up one of them to do this? I think I would. Would I give up a couple more prospects lower on my prospect list? I think I would.

The Orioles should want to do this because the farm needs premium pitching prospects of which the Tigers could help and being able to turn Davis' contract into a positive would be pretty awesome. However, the idea of taking on so much more money would be the only issue. I do think that Cabrera will be more productive over the course of these contracts than Davis will be and Cabrera is a future HOFer with a career .395 OBP. This is just the kind of guy I'd want in my clubhouse while I was rebuilding and just the kind of guy I'd want my young hitters to be mentored by and get advice from. Plus, he can still hit and he can still play 1B for now. I know he'll be a full time DH at some point, but he's a better option than the other guys we've put there and is IMO a better option than Davis.

So again, the part I get stuck on is the question of how much a prospect is worth in dollars? Would a deal like this work?

Orioles get:

Miguel Cabrera, Alex Faedo, Tyler Alexander, Bryan Garcia and Sergio Alcantra

Tigers get:

Chris Davis and save $63MM over the course of Cabrera's contract, Mychal Givens

Again, I'm sure there are major issues here that I'm overlooking or understating, so please do point them out. I am approaching this from the angle of a complete rebuild and abandoning the delusion that we're going to compete any time soon. Something like this would probably never work, but it's been interesting to think about. You're essentially paying for prospects and a HOFer to mentor your young hitters during a rebuild that can still hit and values getting on base. in a deal like this and I assume Faedo would be worth quite a bit to the Tigers. I would be willing to include Givens in a deal like this since the bullpen has been a weakness for the Tigers for awhile now. Again, I'm sure it would never work, but the idea of turning the Davis deal into a haul of prospects is certainly a fun thought even if it's completely unrealistic.

[weams]

56 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I was going to try to do this, but I got sidetracked with the idea of trying to figure out a way to trade Chris Davis and get premium young talent in return. I can really only come up with one possibility and I don't really know how feasible it is, but it does involve the Orioles taking on a lot more money than what they are paying Davis now. The only way I can come up with is trading Davis's bad contract for an even worse contract, being willing to pay that contract in full and in return for doing so, obtain at least one high end prospect in return. For example (and be gentle, I'm sure there's holes in this that I haven't thought of besides the obvious that the Orioles are unlikely to ever take on more money like this)

What if the Orioles traded Davis to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera?

Cabrera is owed $30MM a year through 2021 and $32MM a year for 2022 and 2023 with mutual options for the next two years. Davis is owed $21MM a year through 2022 plus $42MM that is deferred from 2023-2037. So, if say, these contracts were swapped as is and each club would pay these contracts in full up to the time Davis' contract runs out with Detroit paying half of Cabrera's final year and the Orioles paying all deferred money owed to Davis, the Tigers would save about $63MM over the course of these contracts; $9MM a year for 2018-2021, $11MM in 2022 and $16MM in 2023.

The only question is how much are prospects "worth" in dollars and would they be worth enough to make this a worthwhile deal for the Orioles?

The Tigers would probably be thrilled to have the opportunity to not only unload Cabrera's contract, but do so without having to pay the majority of it and save $63MM in the deal. When I think of whether or not I would do that deal if it meant I had to give up some premium talent from my system, I think I probably would. The Tigers have four top-100 pitching prospects in their top five, so would I give up one of them to do this? I think I would. Would I give up a couple more prospects lower on my prospect list? I think I would.

The Orioles should want to do this because the farm needs premium pitching prospects of which the Tigers could help and being able to turn Davis' contract into a positive would be pretty awesome. However, the idea of taking on so much more money would be the only issue. I do think that Cabrera will be more productive over the course of these contracts than Davis will be and Cabrera is a future HOFer with a career .395 OBP. This is just the kind of guy I'd want in my clubhouse while I was rebuilding and just the kind of guy I'd want my young hitters to be mentored by and get advice from. Plus, he can still hit and he can still play 1B for now. I know he'll be a full time DH at some point, but he's a better option than the other guys we've put there and is IMO a better option than Davis.

So again, the part I get stuck on is the question of how much a prospect is worth in dollars? Would a deal like this work?

Orioles get:

Miguel Cabrera, Alex Faedo, Tyler Alexander, Bryan Garcia and Sergio Alcantra

Tigers get:

Chris Davis and save $63MM over the course of Cabrera's contract, Mychal Givens

Again, I'm sure there are major issues here that I'm overlooking or understating, so please do point them out. I am approaching this from the angle of a complete rebuild and abandoning the delusion that we're going to compete any time soon. Something like this would probably never work, but it's been interesting to think about. You're essentially paying for prospects and a HOFer to mentor your young hitters during a rebuild that can still hit and values getting on base. in a deal like this and I assume Faedo would be worth quite a bit to the Tigers. I would be willing to include Givens in a deal like this since the bullpen has been a weakness for the Tigers for awhile now. Again, I'm sure it would never work, but the idea of turning the Davis deal into a haul of prospects is certainly a fun thought even if it's completely unrealistic.

The talking heads were trying to say that Otani's value was 280 million. 

At top tier pitcher would conceivably be worth 40 to 50 million dollars if he is not yet MLB tested or ready.  A young MLB starter with a year track record could have a net value through FA of as much as 80 million I guess. 

Some quick and dirty places to start. In all ways it is truly a gamble. Because they all break.

[jamalshw]

Team or teams (if a multi-team trade) involved: Cleveland Indians
Why this team would be willing to pay a bounty in order to get Manny's services for the rest of the season: While the Indians have Lindor at short and Ramirez at 3B, they're in win-now mode given the pending free agency of Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, vastly disrupting one of their biggest strengths. On top of that, Michael Brantley, Josh Tomlin, Lonnie Chisenhall and a few others are FAs at year's end, too. They got so close to a World Series title in 2016 and may have their best chance in a while to break what is now the sports longest World Series drought. The Indians can slide Ramirez back to 2B and put Manny at 3B for the second half of the season particularly if Kipnis continues to be this terrible at 2B. Right now, the Indians aren't getting the offense they need.
Players in return, why they are a good fit for the Orioles and why the team would be willing to give them up: Orioles trade Machado and Mychal Givens to the Tribe for Triston McKenzie, Yu Chang, Greg Allen and Jason Kipnis

Francisco Mejia is certainly off limits and McKenzie is probably close to it, but if Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer and Clevinger are all dealing and Danny Salazar starts to get closer to a return (with Tomlin holding down the fifth spot), McKenzie may be a bit more expendable. Kluber is under contract (cheaply, too) through 2021 via options, Carrasco and Bauer are set through 2020 and Clevinger is still a pre-arb guy. They have starting pitching under control for some time.

Allen gives the team another strong defender who could play CF and provide good bat-to-ball skills atop the order. He and Mullins can battle it out for the CF/leadoff spot in the future and both, at worst, figure to be serviceable part-time OFers. Allen is expendable in Cleveland given they have Zimmer in CF and his skill set doesn't translate as well to the corner where he will be expected to provide more power than he's likely to be able to provide.

Chang gives the Orioles an option on the left-side in the near future. He showed some pop last year. The Orioles need options at SS and 3B while the Indians can easily move him given Lindo and Ramirez at the big league level and Nolan Jones and Willi Castro in the minors.

Kipnis is a way to balance out the money a little bit. Cleveland is unlikely to be able to add all of Machado's remaining 2018 salary without some help. Kinpis is that help and, unless he turns things around soon, is of no value to the Indians and given his salary, he's costing a team that's not made of money. The non-competing Orioles can give him a bit more time to try and turn things around and potentially be a useful guy in 2019 that they can flip. After all, he is a former All-Star. If he can't get it back, the O's can release him or just have him as a bench player until he plays out the contract.

In adding in a solid relief arm with upside, the Indians essentially make up for the loss of Bryan Shaw in the off season and add a bit more depth to the pen. Givens can be used more strategically by Francona who has other options for the highest leverage situations.

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

McKenzie is out with an undisclosed forearm issue.  I specifically didn't include him for that reason.

[Sessh]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The talking heads were trying to say that Otani's value was 280 million. 

At top tier pitcher would conceivably be worth 40 to 50 million dollars if he is not yet MLB tested or ready.  A young MLB starter with a year track record could have a net value through FA of as much as 80 million I guess. 

Some quick and dirty places to start. In all ways it is truly a gamble. Because they all break.

Indeed, it is a gamble. Signing Davis to that contract was also a gamble as is hoping he can somehow live up to it's value in the future. I'm not much of a gambler, but it seems the only way of turning this into a positive is by taking a calculated risk. It's the only way the Orioles could possibly come out of it all looking good. Of course, it could also make them look bad, but so can hoping Davis turns it around which doesn't seem at all likely. It's certainly unconventional, but if I could get a Cabrera+ return like that or one like it, I think I'd feel better about rolling the dice with Miggy and co. over rolling the dice with Davis and hoping for a miracle. It is certainly risky, though. You got that right.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Sessh said:

I was going to try to do this, but I got sidetracked with the idea of trying to figure out a way to trade Chris Davis and get premium young talent in return. I can really only come up with one possibility and I don't really know how feasible it is, but it does involve the Orioles taking on a lot more money than what they are paying Davis now. The only way I can come up with is trading Davis's bad contract for an even worse contract, being willing to pay that contract in full and in return for doing so, obtain at least one high end prospect in return. For example (and be gentle, I'm sure there's holes in this that I haven't thought of besides the obvious that the Orioles are unlikely to ever take on more money like this)

What if the Orioles traded Davis to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera?

Cabrera is owed $30MM a year through 2021 and $32MM a year for 2022 and 2023 with mutual options for the next two years. Davis is owed $21MM a year through 2022 plus $42MM that is deferred from 2023-2037. So, if say, these contracts were swapped as is and each club would pay these contracts in full up to the time Davis' contract runs out with Detroit paying half of Cabrera's final year and the Orioles paying all deferred money owed to Davis, the Tigers would save about $63MM over the course of these contracts; $9MM a year for 2018-2021, $11MM in 2022 and $16MM in 2023.

The only question is how much are prospects "worth" in dollars and would they be worth enough to make this a worthwhile deal for the Orioles?

The Tigers would probably be thrilled to have the opportunity to not only unload Cabrera's contract, but do so without having to pay the majority of it and save $63MM in the deal. When I think of whether or not I would do that deal if it meant I had to give up some premium talent from my system, I think I probably would. The Tigers have four top-100 pitching prospects in their top five, so would I give up one of them to do this? I think I would. Would I give up a couple more prospects lower on my prospect list? I think I would.

The Orioles should want to do this because the farm needs premium pitching prospects of which the Tigers could help and being able to turn Davis' contract into a positive would be pretty awesome. However, the idea of taking on so much more money would be the only issue. I do think that Cabrera will be more productive over the course of these contracts than Davis will be and Cabrera is a future HOFer with a career .395 OBP. This is just the kind of guy I'd want in my clubhouse while I was rebuilding and just the kind of guy I'd want my young hitters to be mentored by and get advice from. Plus, he can still hit and he can still play 1B for now. I know he'll be a full time DH at some point, but he's a better option than the other guys we've put there and is IMO a better option than Davis.

So again, the part I get stuck on is the question of how much a prospect is worth in dollars? Would a deal like this work?

Orioles get:

Miguel Cabrera, Alex Faedo, Tyler Alexander, Bryan Garcia and Sergio Alcantra

Tigers get:

Chris Davis and save $63MM over the course of Cabrera's contract, Mychal Givens

Again, I'm sure there are major issues here that I'm overlooking or understating, so please do point them out. I am approaching this from the angle of a complete rebuild and abandoning the delusion that we're going to compete any time soon. Something like this would probably never work, but it's been interesting to think about. You're essentially paying for prospects and a HOFer to mentor your young hitters during a rebuild that can still hit and values getting on base. in a deal like this and I assume Faedo would be worth quite a bit to the Tigers. I would be willing to include Givens in a deal like this since the bullpen has been a weakness for the Tigers for awhile now. Again, I'm sure it would never work, but the idea of turning the Davis deal into a haul of prospects is certainly a fun thought even if it's completely unrealistic.

I like it.  Since I had to go look up something about the prospects you mention, I have included them here for the informational aspects of this thread.  Since Garcia recently had TJ surgery, I am not sure this deal needs Mychal Givens.   All of the information below is from MLB. COM  prospect watch. 

Alex Faedo  #3 Tiger prospect

“Alex Faedo's spot atop 2017 Draft boards was initially hurt by minor knee surgery the fall before his junior year and slightly lackluster stuff as a result at the start of his season. He did finish strongly and dominated in the College World Series shortly after the Tigers feel he dropped in their lap at No. 18 overall in the June Draft. He didn't pitch after signing as Detroit erred on the side of caution.

By the end of his final season with Florida, Faedo was back to full strength, featuring his plus fastball and one of the best sliders in the class. He'll sit around 93 mph and touch 95 regularly with good sink. He threw his slider too much in college, but it is a true out pitch that gets a lot of swings and misses. He'll flash a very good changeup, something he'll have to throw more often as a pro. He generally throws strikes, though it's more control than command right now.

Even though the Tigers went slightly over pick value to sign Faedo, he could prove to be a first-round bargain, a top-of-the-Draft talent found in the middle of the round. His Gators teammate A.J. Puk made it to Double-A in his first full season of pro ball, and it's easy to see Faedo's stuff allowing him to follow a similar fast track.”

2018
FSL

Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
LAK (A+)	0	2	2.48	5	5	0	29.0	18	2	4	25	.175	0.76	0.62
Minors	0	2	2.48	5	5	0	29.0	18	2	4	25	.175	0.76	0.62

Bryan Garcia -number 16 Tiger prospect

“In a perfect world, when a team drafts a college closer, especially one from a top-notch program, he moves quickly and gets to the big leagues in a hurry. Garcia, the Tigers' fifth round pick in 2016 who set a University of Miami record with 43 career saves, looked like he was ready to oblige by pitching across four levels and finishing his first full season of pro ball in Triple-A. He was derailed from the fast track, however, when he needed Tommy John surgery right at the start of Spring Training, forcing him out for all of 2018.

When healthy, Garcia has a fastball-slider combination that is good enough to compete with at the Major League level. He throws his fastball up to 95-96 mph regularly and his breaking ball will flash plus, missing bats to the tune of a 12.8 K/9 rate in 2017. The Tigers have encouraged him to work on his changeup more, a serviceable pitch now that could be average and give him a legitimate third weapon. With the exception of his time in Triple-A, he was generally around the strike zone with enough command to succeed in late relief.

Garcia's bulldog mentality is well-suited for relief work and he likes getting the ball late in games. Once he returns from the elbow surgery, he can go back to working his way into Detroit's bullpen, at least as a valuable setup man.”

 

Sergio Alcantara  number 25 prospect

“The Tigers received three infielders, all of whom have played shortstop, from the D-backs in return for J.D.Martinez last July. Jose King is just starting out his pro career, while Dawel Lugo's bat is more intriguing than his glove, which will likely be at second. Of the trio, it is Alcantara who is a sure-fire shortstop, though it's unclear if he'll hit enough to be an everyday one at the big league level.

There are no questions about Alcantara's ability to defend, however. He can flat out play the premium position with an easily plus arm and excellent hands. While he's an average runner at best, he has enough range thanks to his instincts and a terrific first step. His defense is so highly regarded, he was the regular shortstop for Licey in the Domincan Winter League this offseason. At the plate, Alcantara does put the ball in play, keeping his strikeouts down, and will even draw some walks. But he has no power at all and the first thing anyone says about him offensively is that he needs to add strength.

Alcantara doesn't have to start putting balls over fences at the plate to be a big leaguer. He just needs to show he can impact the baseball enough to keep defenders honest, especially as he approaches the upper levels. At worst, he's a defensive-minded utilityman who helps wins games with his glove.

2018
EAS

Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
ERI (AA)	19	73	9	23	3	1	0	6	2	16	2	.315	.338	.384	.721
Minors	19	73	9	23	3	1	0	6	2	16	2	.315	.338	.384	.721

 

 

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

My computer died yesterday and I was going to take an amateurish attempt at a trade with the Yankees targeting one of their top pitching prospects and a 3b/ss/2b prospect.  Anyone want to take a stab at a trade like this since I can't.   Would be time prohibitive to try to do from my phone.

[Sessh]

9 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I like it.  Since I had to go look up something about the prospects you mention, I have included them here for the informational aspects of this thread.  Since Garcia recently had TJ surgery, I am not sure this deal needs Mychal Givens.   All of the information below is from MLB. COM  prospect watch.

Thanks for that. You forgot Tyler Alexander, so I'll post his:

Quote

It has been a tale of two full seasons for Alexander since joining the Tigers as a Draft-eligible sophomore taken out of TCU in the second round of the 2015 Draft. In his first full season, he did what every organization hopes to get from an advanced college lefty, pitching his way to Double-A. A return to the Eastern League in 2017, however, didn't go nearly as well, leaving questions about whether the southpaw's stuff is good enough for the highest levels.

When Alexander is going right, he commands his largely average stuff well down in the zone. He is capable of adding and subtracting from his fastball, as well as sinking it, to get ground-ball outs, throwing it anywhere from 88 mph up to 92-93 mph. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, a tick above average and he can mix in an effective slider and curve. While Alexander continued to walk very few hitters in 2017, his command within the strike zone wasn't good. He doesn't have the power repertoire to get away with pitching up and he paid the price.

Alexander is a smart pitcher, one who has shown the ability to make adjustments in the past. The Tigers hope he is able to learn from his rough 2017, rediscover his command, and continue his march toward being a starter in the back end of a big league rotation.

2018
EAS

Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
ERI (AA)	2	0	2.91	4	4	0	21.2	21	3	3	18	.250	1.11	0.84
Minors	2	0	2.91	4	4	0	21.2	21	3	3	18	.250	1.11

He has indeed rebounded nicely this season so far and he is a lefty FWIW.

With Garcia, I was aware of his TJ surgery, but was not all that concerned about it given the mostly good track record it has these days. Grayson Long was another option, but Garcia is a closer with stuff that should be able to play in the majors when he returns. Most guys that get TJ surgery turn out okay. Bundy certainly has. Long is a starter and I wanted to get one reliever in there and I wasn't all that impressed by Sandy Baez. Jason Foley is another guy that just had TJ surgery who throws upper 90's and could hit triple digits out of the bullpen. He's ranked #23 in their system. Either Garcia or Foley I'd go for. If they were headlining the deal, I wouldn't select them at all. Either one would be supplementary. Faedo is the star of the deal for me.

With Alcantra, we NEED good defensive SS's in our system and he fits the bill. We can bulk him up in our system, but if a singles/doubles hitter is his ceiling, he may also fit into a leadoff hitter role in the future. As long as we wouldn't try to turn him into a power hitter, we have a much better track record developing hitters and I think he might turn out okay. With the D skills he has, I could live with him in the 9-hole if it comes to that. Either way, it's a SS. We need those.

I included Givens because I was asking for four players from their farm system. If this could be done without Givens, great. I have a hard time thinking that the Tigers wouldn't be all over it if any team called them and said they wanted to swap bad contracts with Cabrera in a way that allowed Detroit to save money. I think it would have a high chance of success personally. It's hard to imagine the Tigers turning down such a unique opportunity.

[tntoriole]

4 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Thanks for that. You forgot Tyler Alexander, so I'll post his:

He has indeed rebounded nicely this season so far and he is a lefty FWIW.

With Garcia, I was aware of his TJ surgery, but was not all that concerned about it given the mostly good track record it has these days. Grayson Long was another option, but Garcia is a closer with stuff that should be able to play in the majors when he returns. Most guys that get TJ surgery turn out okay. Bundy certainly has. Long is a starter and I wanted to get one reliever in there and I wasn't all that impressed by Sandy Baez. Jason Foley is another guy that just had TJ surgery who throws upper 90's and could hit triple digits out of the bullpen. He's ranked #23 in their system. Either Garcia or Foley I'd go for. If they were headlining the deal, I wouldn't select them at all. Either one would be supplementary. Faedo is the star of the deal for me.

With Alcantra, we NEED good defensive SS's in our system and he fits the bill. We can bulk him up in our system, but if a singles/doubles hitter is his ceiling, he may also fit into a leadoff hitter role in the future. As long as we wouldn't try to turn him into a power hitter, we have a much better track record developing hitters and I think he might turn out okay. With the D skills he has, I could live with him in the 9-hole if it comes to that. Either way, it's a SS. We need those.

I included Givens because I was asking for four players from their farm system. If this could be done without Givens, great. I have a hard time thinking that the Tigers wouldn't be all over it if any team called them and said they wanted to swap bad contracts with Cabrera in a way that allowed Detroit to save money. I think it would have a high chance of success personally. It's hard to imagine the Tigers turning down such a unique opportunity.

You are right...I skipped over Alexander...given that, Givens makes sense.  Good stuff, thanks! 

[orioles119]

Let's raise the intrigue here... Dodgers starting SS Corey Seager is out for the year now after having to have TJ surgery.