You are the Assistant GM: Trade Manny exercise

[POR]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Diaz is a catcher and I doubt we'd focus on a catcher. 

 

Yusniel Diaz is an outfielder.

Keibert Ruiz is a catcher.

[Hotdiggity]

As a Dodger fan who will only play an Assistant Oriole GM because I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, here's what I would propose:

 

The Dodgers are not going to go over the cap.  No ifs, ands, or buts.  They spent like drunken sailors on meth for years to rebuild from McCourts ashes (so we know what it feels like to have the worst owner in the sport), but those days are over.  The best Dodger mathematician is Eric Stephen at TBLA and he says the team has about 5MM to work with for midseason upgrades so that's what I'm going with.  

Compared to the Orioles the Dodgers rotation looks like Palmer, Cuellar, Dobson, McNally but compared to prior years the Dodger rotation is incredibly thin.  The Kemp trade sent away McCarthy (and Kazmir).  The Alexander trade with KC sent away Trevor Oaks.  The kid wasn't Buehler but he was pegged as a mid/back rotation workhorse.  So when Ryu pulls his groin off the bone that trade kind of hurts.  Plus Urias hasn't progressed as quickly as they've hoped so his August-ish return may be 2019.  Additionally, the Dodgers clearly need to allocate that 5MM to pitching.

So any deal with the Orioles would need to be salary neutral.  I can't see the Orioles being ok with that.  But I will forge ahead and try to construct a package. To start making a salary-neutral deal using ML parts the Dodgers can afford to give up from a depth standpoint the Orioles would get Forsythe, Pederson, Baez.  I didn't say it was going to be pretty!  Forsythe has no value to the O's other than salary swap.  Baez can be a great reliever if his head is screwed on straight.  He just prefers to work with self doubt more often.  Pederson is undervalued by Dodger fans.  He's a 2.5 WIN player most of the time with 3 years of control.  That's worth something.

So works done here, right? No? OK, prospects. I can't see Verdugo and Buehler at this point because they are performing well in critical positions for the ML club.  Sorry, but I think the ship has sailed.  The Dodger organization is amazingly stocked at C and RHP (shocking, I know).  Kiebert Ruiz is probably their best prospect, catcher.  I saw the kid a few times last year at the team's High-A club and he looks special even now.  I am never in the camp of no prospect is untradable.  I see it more from a likelihood standpoint.  If Kiebert gets traded its to be the headliner of a pitcher with multiple years of control.  Think more Asher/Fulmer.

Here's a link to a good TBLA article ranking 2018 prospects by their likelihood to be used in trade.

https://www.truebluela.com/2018/5/2/17311556/dodgers-prospects-2018-trade-value-rankings

From that list I would pick 4 from a pool of: Peters, May, Rios, Alvarez, White, Lux, Sheffield

Peters is a Werth clone.  White is a premium talent that can't seem to stay healthy, the perfect type of upside trade chip.  The one I find most interesting is Lux.  Lux was the 2016 1st round pick who has ML-ready defense with terrible hitting last year.  Hitting was always going to be his question.  After starting the year 1-21 he's been hitting over .400 the last month.   One name I am going to pick from those prospects for the O's is Rios.  The guy is an AL Player.  He's a 1B/LF and he's blocked by Bellinger.

So to me the trade is a 7for1.  Machado for Forsythe, Baez, Pederson, Peters, Rios, White, Lux

Have fun picking it apart.

[tntoriole]

25 minutes ago, Hotdiggity said:

As a Dodger fan who will only play an Assistant Oriole GM because I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night, here's what I would propose:

 

The Dodgers are not going to go over the cap.  No ifs, ands, or buts.  They spent like drunken sailors on meth for years to rebuild from McCourts ashes (so we know what it feels like to have the worst owner in the sport), but those days are over.  The best Dodger mathematician is Eric Stephen at TBLA and he says the team has about 5MM to work with for midseason upgrades so that's what I'm going with.  

Compared to the Orioles the Dodgers rotation looks like Palmer, Cuellar, Dobson, McNally but compared to prior years the Dodger rotation is incredibly thin.  The Kemp trade sent away McCarthy (and Kazmir).  The Alexander trade with KC sent away Trevor Oaks.  The kid wasn't Buehler but he was pegged as a mid/back rotation workhorse.  So when Ryu pulls his groin off the bone that trade kind of hurts.  Plus Urias hasn't progressed as quickly as they've hoped so his August-ish return may be 2019.  Additionally, the Dodgers clearly need to allocate that 5MM to pitching.

So any deal with the Orioles would need to be salary neutral.  I can't see the Orioles being ok with that.  But I will forge ahead and try to construct a package. To start making a salary-neutral deal using ML parts the Dodgers can afford to give up from a depth standpoint the Orioles would get Forsythe, Pederson, Baez.  I didn't say it was going to be pretty!  Forsythe has no value to the O's other than salary swap.  Baez can be a great reliever if his head is screwed on straight.  He just prefers to work with self doubt more often.  Pederson is undervalued by Dodger fans.  He's a 2.5 WIN player most of the time with 3 years of control.  That's worth something.

So works done here, right? No? OK, prospects. I can't see Verdugo and Buehler at this point because they are performing well in critical positions for the ML club.  Sorry, but I think the ship has sailed.  The Dodger organization is amazingly stocked at C and RHP (shocking, I know).  Kiebert Ruiz is probably their best prospect, catcher.  I saw the kid a few times last year at the team's High-A club and he looks special even now.  I am never in the camp of no prospect is untradable.  I see it more from a likelihood standpoint.  If Kiebert gets traded its to be the headliner of a pitcher with multiple years of control.  Think more Asher/Fulmer.

Here's a link to a good TBLA article ranking 2018 prospects by their likelihood to be used in trade.

https://www.truebluela.com/2018/5/2/17311556/dodgers-prospects-2018-trade-value-rankings

From that list I would pick 4 from a pool of: Peters, May, Rios, Alvarez, White, Lux, Sheffield

Peters is a Werth clone.  White is a premium talent that can't seem to stay healthy, the perfect type of upside trade chip.  The one I find most interesting is Lux.  Lux was the 2016 1st round pick who has ML-ready defense with terrible hitting last year.  Hitting was always going to be his question.  After starting the year 1-21 he's been hitting over .400 the last month.   One name I am going to pick from those prospects for the O's is Rios.  The guy is an AL Player.  He's a 1B/LF and he's blocked by Bellinger.

So to me the trade is a 7for1.  Machado for Forsythe, Baez, Pederson, Peters, Rios, White, Lux

Have fun picking it apart.

Thanks so much for this knowledgeable and interesting description of Dodger system and where they are at.  Welcome to the board!  I am sure there will be plenty of back and forth.  I will spend some time digesting your information, but it is increasingly harder to see the matchup working with Dodgers as we are just at different places organizationally.   I think there are probably better matches to be had..including the Diamondbacks once Ahmed regresses as is inevitable back to his .630 lifetime OPS. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Keibert Ruiz had a 13% K rate between A and A+ last year as an 18 year old catcher, he's struck out 8% so far this year as the 3rd youngest player in AA (only older than top 10 prospects in baseball Vlad Jr and Tatis Jr).

Lux is a <20% K rate guy.

Bannon is around a 20% K rate guy as well.

As far as the "looking at the bottom of their top 30" thing, prospect evaluations are fluid, especially with players in the lower minors.

Yep I figured there were some ....but most are in their bottom 30. 

If I could get White and Ferguson the other players in the deal could ge further away. 

With Sisco just getting to the majors I'm not sure how I'd feel about Ruiz as a main piece. 

I guess White, Ruiz, Ferguson, and Bannon? I know it's hard to guess but could you see the Dodgers giving that up?

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, POR said:

Yusniel Diaz is an outfielder.

Keibert Ruiz is a catcher.

Good catch ....I meant Ruiz. 

[weams]

On 5/5/2018 at 9:43 PM, Roll Tide said:

Good catch ....I meant Ruiz. 

Time to revisit!

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Time to revisit!

Going to be serious bragging rights if someone ends up close to the final deal.

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, weams said:

Time to revisit!

Are things happening?

[Natty]

I'd keep him. He could be the greatest hitting Oriole ever. To trade that for a dime a dozen ss or prospects, is a mistake of historical proportions.

Then I'd have the team fork out $300M and sign him to a muti year contract.  Even at $30M per year that leaves us $60M less payroll than Boston. 

I would spend the leftover $60M, on bringing on Cy Young type starting pitchers. 

But that's just me. I want to win. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Natty said:

I'd keep him. He could be the greatest hitting Oriole ever. To trade that for a dime a dozen ss or prospects, is a mistake of historical proportions.

Then I'd have the team fork out $300M and sign him to a muti year contract.  Even at $30M per year that leaves us $60M less payroll than Boston. 

I would spend the leftover $60M, on bringing on Cy Young type starting pitchers. 

But that's just me. I want to win. 

Why not trade him and then bring him back as a free agent?

Would a few months in another uniform spoil his legacy?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why not trade him and then bring him back as a free agent?

Would a few months in another uniform spoil his legacy?

Mike Bordick broadcasts our games despite having been traded at the deadline and then re-signing with the team.  

[tntoriole]

On 4/28/2018 at 12:20 PM, tntoriole said:

 Team involved:   Arizona Diamondbacks

:  Why this team would be willing to pay a bounty in order to get Manny's services for the rest of the season :     Arizona has an excellent team that has gotten virtually no production to date from shortstop...Nick Ahmed is .197 BA and 28 years old and has a lifetime OPS of .625.  Pairing Machado with Goldschmidt in this lineup will be a monster move for their push to win it all in 2018. 

Players in return, why they are a good fit for the Orioles and why the team would be willing to give them up:      

1. Jasrado Chisolm

“In the 2015 international amateur class, Lucius Fox got most of the attention regarding players from the Bahamas. But the D-backs liked what they saw in fellow Bahamian shortstop Jazz Chisholm, signing him for $200,000. A solid pro debut in the Pioneer League in 2016 had the organization excited for his full-season debut in 2017, but after shaking off a slow April with a hot start to May, Chisholm tore his right meniscus, ending his season.

Chisholm's knee is fine and he was back in time to participate at the organization's instructs in the Dominican Republic last fall. He has a ton of offensive potential to tap into, with the ability to impact the baseball consistently and plenty of raw power. He needs to keep refining his approach from the left side of the plate and it looked like he was making strides in that regard, raising his OPS by over 300 points over the 10 games in May last year before he got hurt. The D-backs are hopeful those improvements carry over to 2018 and with a better approach, more over-the-fence power should follow.

There is little question Chisholm can stay at shortstop, with good hands and actions to go along with enough arm for the premium position. As a kid from the Bahamas who didn't face a ton of top-notch competition, Chisholm could take longer to learn the approach necessary to tap into his raw tools. The D-backs are hopeful a healthy 2018 will help move him in the right direction.”    MLB. com prospect watch Pipeline

2. Taylor Widener  “ A 12th-round pick from South Carolina who signed for $100,000 in the 2016 Draft, Widener was largely a reliever in college. After a stunning pro debut pitching out of the bullpen, he moved into the rotation in 2017, finishing fourth in the system in strikeouts and sixth in ERA, then moved up to Double-A, where he finished off a playoff no-hitter. His development is now in the hands of the D-backs, who acquired him in a three-team trade in February that sent Brandon Drury to New York.  Widener's velocity ticked up at the start of his pro career, with his fastball jumping up to 93-97 mph. He continues to work on the consistency of his mid-80s slider and he's worked to refine his changeup and has had success with it. His stuff held up all year in his first full pro season and while making the transition from reliever to starter, though the Yankees kept him on a tight pitch limit. High spin rates on his fastball and breaking ball led to a lot of missed bats in 2017. Widener has an athletic delivery that he can repeat well, which should lead to solid control. He had ulnar transposition surgery on his pitching elbow in the fall of 2015 and also missed time with back and knee issues in college, but he proved to be durable over 27 starts in 2017. Even if he returns to the bullpen, he could be a useful arm. “  MLB.com Prospect watch 

3.Matt Tabor 

“A growth spurt before his senior year led to a big uptick in stuff for Tabor, sending his Draft stock rising and scouts pouring into New England as the weather warmed. He ended up landing in the third round, where the D-backs gave him an above-pick value $1 million bonus. He threw sparingly during his summer debut, but stood out as the most exciting high school Draft prospect from the D-backs' crop of high schoolers selected.

While Tabor has a ways to go as a prep pitcher from the Northeast, the D-backs were pleasantly surprised how polished and mature he was on the mound. He shows three plus pitches at times from an athletic and repeatable delivery. His fastball will touch 95-96 mph and sit in the low 90s and there's reason to believe there's more in the tank as he fills out his frame. He's already tightened up his slurvy breaking ball some into a slider that should be a very good weapon for him and he has feel for a solid changeup. He's around the strike zone and should have at least average command in the future.

Showing a good sense of what he needs to do on the mound to improve, Tabor was advanced in his ability to change tempos and deliveries to keep hitters off-balance.”  MLB.com prospect watch report

 

Chisolm is a potential shortstop of the future for us, Diamondbacks could make a serious play to sign Manny and would thus not need a ss.  This deal does not ask for their top prospect arm in Duplantier or top position prospect. Pavin Smith..but gives us two potential rotation arms a bit down the road. 

This was written before Seager’s injury and before Pollock went down...price has gone up for Diamondbacks...I would now definitely need Duplantier in this deal 

“Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Jon Duplantier

Top Arizona Diamondbacks pitching prospect Jon Duplantier sports a 2.79 ERA with 24 strikeouts and only three walks in 19.1 innings at Double-A.

The 23-year-old boasts a strong sinking fastball, along with a solid curveball and changeup and an emerging slider. 

That four-pitch combination makes him a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. The Diamondbacks surely don't want to stunt his development, but he could help the Snakes as a spot starter or out of the bullpen at some point as they seek to build on their 2017 wild-card berth and win the National League West.”  Prospect Watch , Bleacher Report...May 16,2018

[Natty]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why not trade him and then bring him back as a free agent?

Would a few months in another uniform spoil his legacy?

Whats the point in bringing in a below avg SS and prospects that don't pan out? Just so the team can say they made a trade. So what.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Natty said:

Whats the point in bringing in a below avg SS and prospects that don't pan out? Just so the team can say they made a trade. So what.

Obviously if you can't get a return that is greater than the value of the draft pick you don't make the trade.

If you can get more you do it to add as much talent to the system as you can.

Half a season of Manny should be worth more than the pick.

[Luke-OH]

11 minutes ago, Natty said:

Whats the point in bringing in a below avg SS and prospects that don't pan out? Just so the team can say they made a trade. So what.

I bet the Cubs are glad they sold Feldman to the O's "just so the team could say they made a trade".