You are the Assistant GM: Part II (Trade Manny)

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

The Dodgers just signed Danny Espinosa.

 

2 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Maybe they need a SS until they get a SS

Yep, depth. Espinosa should only be on a ML as that option.

[Il BuonO]

I still think the Phillies are a match, but not with Crawford as part of the deal. The Orioles won’t need him when they sign Machado in the offseason.

[Hotdiggity]

In case you haven’t been following Dodgerland and missed the wonderful news, Kershaw goes down with a bicep injury thinning out an already thin rotation. If a premium prospect or 2  goes at all it is for a pitcher with multiple years of control. Think Archer/Fulmer type. That’s why the O’s & Dodgers don’t match up. Seager going down and Manny being a comparable replacement was natural, but really only on a surface level. 

[Roll Tide]

45 minutes ago, Hotdiggity said:

In case you haven’t been following Dodgerland and missed the wonderful news, Kershaw goes down with a bicep injury thinning out an already thin rotation. If a premium prospect or 2  goes at all it is for a pitcher with multiple years of control. Think Archer/Fulmer type. That’s why the O’s & Dodgers don’t match up. Seager going down and Manny being a comparable replacement was natural, but really only on a surface level. 

Maybe Manny and Cobb, Guasman  or Bundy.

 

ir could work and they have the system.

[allquixotic]

The only deal I could actually see happening at all is the Cardinals deal with Machado and Brach, because no one, not even Mike Trout or Ohtani, is going to net that much value for a half-season rental. And whoever gets Machado has to know that he is a zero loyalty type guy and will only sign with the team willing to pay him the most, regardless of how much fun he has from May to November with the team he signs on with for the rest of 2018. But throwing in Brach helps a bit, especially if he's an upgrade for some other team.

Oh, and Machado isn't worth as much as Trout or Ohtani, by the way. He might be in the top ten most valuable players in baseball, but I'd say he's not top 5. Maybe number 7 or 8. There are limits to the number and quantity of players you can get back for a rental on a guy like that.

I really think we have to trade Gausman, Bundy, Britton, Schoop - go for bust and try to get as many young talented prospects as possible. Just completely cash out all MLB talent in the entire organization, resign ourselves to 3-5 seasons of awful, and hope a rejuvenated farm and new management brings us back to winning in the early 2020s.

Once we're done with our makeover, our A, AA and AAA teams should all have extremely low average ages. Anyone who's been given many years to find it, and hasn't, should be sent home. The teams should be completely stacked to the brim with kids in the 18-25 range, all of whom show promise, and even 25 is pushing it. If you roll the dice that many times (the number of players on each of our farm teams combined) you're going to probably wind up with somewhere around 5 to 8 legitimate MLB position players and 1 to 3 good to great starters. They won't be ready to actually play in the bigs for a few years, but they'll get there - give 'em time.

What you should be able to come away with is a solid core of reasonably young and talented players all in their prime together at some point between 2022 and 2024. So I would expect 2022-2025 to look something like 2012-2015 in terms of contention, and we can roll the dice again in the postseason to see if they can get deeper or actually win it all.

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, allquixotic said:

The only deal I could actually see happening at all is the Cardinals deal with Machado and Brach, because no one, not even Mike Trout or Ohtani, is going to net that much value for a half-season rental. And whoever gets Machado has to know that he is a zero loyalty type guy and will only sign with the team willing to pay him the most, regardless of how much fun he has from May to November with the team he signs on with for the rest of 2018. But throwing in Brach helps a bit, especially if he's an upgrade for some other team.

Oh, and Machado isn't worth as much as Trout or Ohtani, by the way. He might be in the top ten most valuable players in baseball, but I'd say he's not top 5. Maybe number 7 or 8. There are limits to the number and quantity of players you can get back for a rental on a guy like that.

I really think we have to trade Gausman, Bundy, Britton, Schoop - go for bust and try to get as many young talented prospects as possible. Just completely cash out all MLB talent in the entire organization, resign ourselves to 3-5 seasons of awful, and hope a rejuvenated farm and new management brings us back to winning in the early 2020s.

If you are saying we go onto total rebuild I'm with you 

[allquixotic]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

If you are saying we go onto total rebuild I'm with you 

That's exactly what I'm saying. Talking about trading Manny Machado is like the tip of the iceberg. He represents a relatively small amount of our total MLB value right now, because Machado as a trading chip is only coming with a couple months of play time (and that time is dwindling fast with every day we keep him).

The actual moves we need to be making should involve trading our best ML players even if they have several years of team control left. That's because the fact that they are good, plus the years of team control, makes other teams really want to have them, and be willing to give up serious value in return.

So, yes. Pretty much everyone who's any good must go, in return for young prospects.

[Oriol3s]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, Some good discussion already but I decided to narrow down the conversion to four deals to consider. What are the plusses and minuses of each deal?

1. Machado to Dodgers for Forsythe, Baez, Pederson, Peters, Rios, White, Lux (Read more here) by Hotdiggity

2. Machado to Dodgers for Keibert Ruiz, Mitchell White, Gavin Lux, and Rylan Bannon (Read more here) by Luke-OH 

3. Machado to Phillies for J.P Craford and Kevin Gowdt (Read more here) by oriole

4. Manny Machado and Brad Brach to St. Louis for Jack Flaherty, Austin Gomber and Max Schrock (Read more here) by Tryptamine

In this part of the exercise, you have to pick what deal you like the best and why. Also, if you don't like a certain deal or don't think its realistic then let me know that as well.

At the end I'll take a vote for favorite deal!

 

#1 - excellent point that the Dodgers would want to keep any deal under the tax.  Makes sense, and I like White & Lux in return, along with current MLB player who could either join the team or just be DFA'd.  However, DFA'ing someone who is still owed millions doesn't seem to be this team's style, so I question whether they would do that.

#2 - I love this deal, and it would be my favorite, except as mentioned above, I think the Dodgers would look to jettison some salary.  I'd still ove this deal even if taking a Forsythe in return.

#3 - I don't think this is enough return value for the O's.  A SS who might be an okay hitter? He might get better, but has never had an incredible year offensively.  He's also only a couple years younger than Machado.  The pitcher might be good, but again, we don't know since he had TJ surgery.  I'd pass on this one.

#4 - I like it, but can't see the Cardinals parting with a pitcher who is currently in the starting rotation and doing a solid job so far.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Hotdiggity said:

In case you haven’t been following Dodgerland and missed the wonderful news, Kershaw goes down with a bicep injury thinning out an already thin rotation. If a premium prospect or 2  goes at all it is for a pitcher with multiple years of control. Think Archer/Fulmer type. That’s why the O’s & Dodgers don’t match up. Seager going down and Manny being a comparable replacement was natural, but really only on a surface level. 

I don't agree with this. Especially if the team smartens up and shops Gausman. Gausman + Machado to the Dodgers would plug two holes. They'd just need to find a way to balance out the salaries. 

[Oriol3s]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I don't agree with this. Especially if the team smartens up and shops Gausman. Gausman + Machado to the Dodgers would plug two holes. They'd just need to find a way to balance out the salaries. 

If they offer this, you're right that the O's would have to take on salary in return, but the Dodges would have to add another prospect or two.

Machado & Gausman for Ruiz, White, May, Lux, Bannon, and Forsythe (or maybe even Kemp).  A play off of option #2

[LocoChris]

Why in God’s name are we discussing trading Bundy? He should be part of the franchise’s future. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Oriol3s said:

If they offer this, you're right that the O's would have to take on salary in return, but the Dodges would have to add another prospect or two.

Machado & Gausman for Ruiz, White, May, Lux, Bannon, and Forsythe (or maybe even Kemp).  A play off of option #2

I'd be looking for Caleb Ferguson in any deal personally

 

Ruiz, White, May, Ferguson, Lux, and Bannon

 

 

Ferguson 6 starts at AA this season .033 ERA 2-0 28Ks in 27 innings

 

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Ferguson had Tommy John surgery as an Ohio high school senior in 2014, yet that didn't deter the Dodgers from taking him in the 38th round and luring him away from a West Virginia commitment for $100,000. They didn't fully turn him loose until 2017, when he ranked first in ERA (2.87), second in opponent average (.246) and third in strikeouts (140 in 122 1/3 innings) in the high Class A California League at age 20. He stands out as easily the best left-hander in a system that has been short on southpaws since Julio Urias graduated to Los Angeles.

Ferguson added velocity to his fastball last year, sitting in the low 90s and peaking at 95 mph, and hitters still had trouble squaring it up even though it didn't feature quite as much sink as it had in the past. He gets swings and misses with his upper-70s curveball, which can become a plus if he lands it in the strike zone more consistently. He's gaining more trust in a fading changeup that should be at least an average third offering.

Though Ferguson's walk rate jumped from 0.7 per nine innings in 2016 to 4.0 last year, it should settle somewhere in between. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and grew more comfortable attacking hitters once he got accustomed to the hitter-friendly Cal League. If he can refine his command, he has a good chance to become a No. 4 starter.

[Hotdiggity]

29 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd be looking for Caleb Ferguson in any deal personally

 

Ruiz, White, May, Ferguson, Lux, and Bannon

 

 

Ferguson 6 starts at AA this season .033 ERA 2-0 28Ks in 27 innings

 

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Ferguson had Tommy John surgery as an Ohio high school senior in 2014, yet that didn't deter the Dodgers from taking him in the 38th round and luring him away from a West Virginia commitment for $100,000. They didn't fully turn him loose until 2017, when he ranked first in ERA (2.87), second in opponent average (.246) and third in strikeouts (140 in 122 1/3 innings) in the high Class A California League at age 20. He stands out as easily the best left-hander in a system that has been short on southpaws since Julio Urias graduated to Los Angeles.

Ferguson added velocity to his fastball last year, sitting in the low 90s and peaking at 95 mph, and hitters still had trouble squaring it up even though it didn't feature quite as much sink as it had in the past. He gets swings and misses with his upper-70s curveball, which can become a plus if he lands it in the strike zone more consistently. He's gaining more trust in a fading changeup that should be at least an average third offering.

Though Ferguson's walk rate jumped from 0.7 per nine innings in 2016 to 4.0 last year, it should settle somewhere in between. He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and grew more comfortable attacking hitters once he got accustomed to the hitter-friendly Cal League. If he can refine his command, he has a good chance to become a No. 4 starter.

I personally don’t see Ruiz unless Kemp was going back the other way. Because baseball is terrible (and we are terrible for loving the sport) he’s been the best hitter thus far. Go figure. 

[ChuckS]

I have no idea who is going to be in on Manny in July.  All I know is that 90 percent of this board is likely to be disappointed in the return if he is even dealt.  

I can see ownership opting to keep Manny in hopes of building goodwill (whatever that is) for a failed attempt to resign him in the offseason.  If they didn't like the possible return in the offseason I fail to see the market for him being exponentially better in July.  We'll see what happens.  I truly hope he is dealt for whatever they can get back. 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I have no idea who is going to be in on Manny in July.  All I know is that 90 percent of this board is likely to be disappointed in the return if he is even dealt.  

I can see ownership opting to keep Manny in hopes of building goodwill (whatever that is) for a failed attempt to resign him in the offseason.  If they didn't like the possible return in the offseason I fail to see the market for him being exponentially better in July.  We'll see what happens.  I truly hope he is dealt for whatever they can get back. 

The Orioles don't need to hold Manny until the deadline. They are so bad that they are all but eliminated from the playoff race now. Also they have no intention of giving Machado $330 million over ten years. 

Most think that Manny will be sent with another player such as Guasman for the best return.