Has there ever been a player at Davis level

[nsw]

Davis isn't giving money back, and he shouldn't be pressured to. The owners and the union have decided on a low initial salary pre-arb and then big, guaranteed money scores if you can stick around, even if you're not worth it any more. This hamstrings teams who make costly bets on the wrong guys, like the O's with Davis. But the idea is that you'll get some guys cheaper than you "should," and you'll overpay some guys. 

 

For example, Manny was paid $500K in 2015 and produced 6.6 WAR (wins were priced at $9.6m per in 2015, so $63 MILLION of surplus value). And that was for one year! He did the same thing in 2016! Nobody put pressure on Angelos to pay Manny an extra $50 million for performance...

 

You win some, you lose some.. and our beloved O's paid the wrong guy the big bucks.

[OriolesWay]

I think you are going to start to see a change in Chris Davis's overinflated opinion of himself.  I think he is getting a cold dose of reality and realizes changes to his approach  at the plate are going to have to be made . If he is playing hurt  which may explain why is having an awful start, he needs to remove himself from the lineup because this is becoming comical and he sets a poor example to the younger players.

[ChuckS]

28 minutes ago, OriolesWay said:

I think you are going to start to see a change in Chris Davis's overinflated opinion of himself.  I think he is getting a cold dose of reality and realizes changes to his approach  at the plate are going to have to be made . If he is playing hurt  which may explain why is having an awful start, he needs to remove himself from the lineup because this is becoming comical and he sets a poor example to the younger players.

I saw changes.  Committing to his swing earlier.  Swinging with less authority.  He was striking out less in the early going as a result of this approach but all weak contact.  There is not much a player can do to make up for loss of bat speed and completely changing his swing/path to the ball at this point in his career is not realistic. 

I don't see any evidence that Chris Davis has an overinflated opinion of himself.  He is just a once productive big leaguer who is finished.  

[OriolesWay]

For 6 years  161 million guaranteed,  he better not be finished.  You are already starting to see the  fallout from this contract signing.  This could go down as the worst in Orioles history.

[25 Nuggets]

I wonder how much that contract has hurt this franchise and not just on the field.  I hear Tony's coming out with an article...

[ChuckS]

6 minutes ago, OriolesWay said:

For 6 years  161 million guaranteed,  he better not be finished.  You are already starting to see the  fallout from this contract signing.  This could go down as the worst in Orioles history.

There is almost no doubt that this is going to go down as the worst contract in O's history and one of the worst in the history of major league free agency.  The sad thing is, an overwhelming percentage of the arm chair GM's that make up this message board have been predicting that from that the date that it was signed. 

The only ones surprised by this unfolding are the O's FO, no doubt.  

[Yossarian]

5 hours ago, brooksfrankjim said:

One thing that amazes me is that Davis hasn’t tried to completely restructure his swing and stance.  Like he doesn’t realize this one isn’t working and hasn’t for a long time.  Lower the elbow and hands, open up, change the stride.  Do something. Do anything.

He has re-structured his swing.  He has now resorted to not swinging at all.  The AL pitchers can't find a hole in his new swing now.

[Natty]

Has to be the highest paid ballplayer with the worst stats the last 2 seasons.

[FanSince88]

9 hours ago, nsw said:

Davis isn't giving money back, and he shouldn't be pressured to. The owners and the union have decided on a low initial salary pre-arb and then big, guaranteed money scores if you can stick around, even if you're not worth it any more. This hamstrings teams who make costly bets on the wrong guys, like the O's with Davis. But the idea is that you'll get some guys cheaper than you "should," and you'll overpay some guys. 

 

For example, Manny was paid $500K in 2015 and produced 6.6 WAR (wins were priced at $9.6m per in 2015, so $63 MILLION of surplus value). And that was for one year! He did the same thing in 2016! Nobody put pressure on Angelos to pay Manny an extra $50 million for performance...

 

You win some, you lose some.. and our beloved O's paid the wrong guy the big bucks.

It's true we got a relative bargain on Machado.  But I think your "blue book value" for WAR isn't really borne out in reality when you're talking about large WAR numbers, there's a bit of a discounting effect that goes on at those large numbers.  Nobody's getting paid $60 million a year even in this day and age.  Also, you have to consider the sheer depth of Chris Davis' ineptitude.  If it was just that he'e merely replacement level -- which, mind you is still very, very bad and way below league average -- it wouldn't be so outrageous.  It's that his presence on the roster is making the team way worse than even your typical Joe Schmoe from the minors.  Outside of the occasional nifty scoop of a poor throw from Pedro Alvarez, he does very little to help the team and is actively hurting them.  The Orioles paying Chris Davis all this money is like paying a roofer to destroy your brand new roof and fail to replace it with anything.  It's like paying a doctor to shoot you and leave you to bleed out.  It would be much better to pay him to do nothing...instead right now he's getting paid to help the team lose.  

[FanSince88]

9 hours ago, nsw said:

Davis isn't giving money back, and he shouldn't be pressured to. The owners and the union have decided on a low initial salary pre-arb and then big, guaranteed money scores if you can stick around, even if you're not worth it any more. This hamstrings teams who make costly bets on the wrong guys, like the O's with Davis. But the idea is that you'll get some guys cheaper than you "should," and you'll overpay some guys. 

 

For example, Manny was paid $500K in 2015 and produced 6.6 WAR (wins were priced at $9.6m per in 2015, so $63 MILLION of surplus value). And that was for one year! He did the same thing in 2016! Nobody put pressure on Angelos to pay Manny an extra $50 million for performance...

 

You win some, you lose some.. and our beloved O's paid the wrong guy the big bucks.

To put it another way, I wish we were overpaying for Chris Davis.  To "overpay" implies that you're getting something of value for your money, it's just worth much less than you're paying.  What we're doing for Chris Davis goes way beyond an "overpay."  We're paying him to SUBTRACT value from this team.  We're paying him to strike out and ground into double plays.  I'm not sure there's even a phrase for that, but what might come closest is "suicidal masochism."  

[FanSince88]

12 hours ago, baltfan said:

It’s one month.  Everyone has a right to be worried, but things change.   I remember one year Jeter really struggled through the first two months. Hit something like .200

It's one month of unspeakable atrocity following a whole season of unacceptably poor.  And it's a guy with four seasons left on his contract after this season.  If this were the sixth year of his deal it wouldn't be such a gut punch. 

[nadecir]

It's a lost season, whether you have Chris Davis on the roster or not.

Although it's painful to watch him play on a regular basis, it's best now that you put him in the lineup on a regular basis for that 1 in a million shot that he turns it out around.

Try to took at the positive: since his enormous contract is guaranteed already, you can consider him a no cost option as his own replacement.  

[UpstateNYfan]

Anyone that thinks CD will restructure his contract is crazy, the Players' Association IMO would be opposed to any such suggestion. I have never been a huge fan of this man. I have to admit to seeing the big wad of chew in his mouth in this day and age influences that opinion. A multi-millionaire that risks shortening his life by such a habit is puzzling to me, in addition to kids seeing such behavior. His suspension and other things makes me believe (perhaps wrongly) that he is pretty self centered (at least as a player). Baseball is a difficult game. It takes a lot of work to maintain or improve your game. Coaches may say he is working hard, but he may be very well going through the motions. I rarely hear a coach say anything negative about a player's work ethic until he is gone. I marvel at players with big contracts that maintain their game. I am also not surprised at players decline shortly after a big contract....set for life, what's the point? IIRC, the majority here wanted the O's to sign Davis, maybe not to the extent $$$ and length he received, but were generally for it. It would at least seem that Jones (maybe other players) and BS were in favor of it. I think Davis is dead weight as an O. Eat his contract, let another team pick him up (the O's would recover what $550,000). A new venue for Chris might revitalize the man and he could put together a couple good seasons, but I think he is toast in Baltimore.

[pastorfan]

14 hours ago, Uli2001 said:

I know it's not his fault he got the contract he got, but I have to think the man must feel embarrassed by it. I hope they can reach some kind of agreement, perhaps involving donating to charity.

This is why we must keep playing him. We must play him so that his numbers will be so bad and his level of embarrassment reaches the point he will take a buy out. Sooner or later even his fellow teammates will be saying "give it up." This may sound cruel, but you don't sacrifice the whole body for one limb. You must cut the limb off!

[nsw]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

It's true we got a relative bargain on Machado.  But I think your "blue book value" for WAR isn't really borne out in reality when you're talking about large WAR numbers, there's a bit of a discounting effect that goes on at those large numbers.  Nobody's getting paid $60 million a year even in this day and age.  Also, you have to consider the sheer depth of Chris Davis' ineptitude.  If it was just that he'e merely replacement level -- which, mind you is still very, very bad and way below league average -- it wouldn't be so outrageous.  It's that his presence on the roster is making the team way worse than even your typical Joe Schmoe from the minors.  Outside of the occasional nifty scoop of a poor throw from Pedro Alvarez, he does very little to help the team and is actively hurting them.  The Orioles paying Chris Davis all this money is like paying a roofer to destroy your brand new roof and fail to replace it with anything.  It's like paying a doctor to shoot you and leave you to bleed out.  It would be much better to pay him to do nothing...instead right now he's getting paid to help the team lose.  

You nailed it. And gallows humor is pretty much all we have left.

I would love to know how far "productive" players can fall (in terms of dismal performance over a certain # of plate appearances) at age 32 and still recover their heights. The only thing I could remember was David Ortiz's half-season swoon in 2009 at age 34 before being awesome for 6 more years. Pretty sure that's not a great comp, though..lol. Davis has been declining for 1.5 years plus.

I am fine running Davis out there until the All-Star break and seeing if he can fix himself, but after that I would love to see us eat sunk cost and move on.