Oriole Draft Primer: #11, #37, and my top 50 draft prospects

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I gotcha, he does fail to finish a few pitches early, but like I said in the previous post, I think it’s completely fixable with something as simple as cuing “finish out front” or “get into your front hip”. He fixed it on his own as the outing progressed, so it seems like something he’s been coached on previously as you’d expect.

Unlike a lot of O's fans on this board I have no issue with guys working a quality 4 seamer up in the zone.  I think folks severely overate the 2 seam fastball and ground balls in general.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unlike a lot of O's fans on this board I have no issue with guys working a quality 4 seamer up in the zone.  I think folks severely overate the 2 seam fastball and ground balls in general.

I agree, the Orioles have a couple guys in the minors with good sinkers/2S FB (Hanifee and Long), other than than I want a high spin 4S fastball that a pitcher can change eye levels with and miss bats.

[Greg Pappas]

1	RHP Casey Mize
2	SS/2B Nick Madrigal
3	RHP Carter Stewart
4	OF Jarred Kelenic
5	RHP Brady Singer
6	1B/3B Alec Bohm
7	RHP Cole Winn
8	3B Jordan Groshans
9	3B/2B Jonathan India
10	CA Joey Bart
11	LHP Matt Liberatore
12	LHP Ryan Weathers
13	RHP Logan Gilbert
14	OF Connor Scott
15	SS Brice Turang

This is my updated Top Prospects list... adding a few extra (did 11 last time) for good measure. I'm also higher on Joe Gray Jr, a HS OF from Mississippi, than many others. He's intriguing at #37, though he may still be available in the 3rd round.

[Luke-OH]

I have Nick Schnell ranked 14th which seemed too bold at the time, but I was just reading that he’s a rumored fallback option for a couple top 10 teams.

 

[Greg Pappas]

34 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I have Nick Schnell ranked 14th which seemed too bold at the time, but I was just reading that he’s a rumored fallback option for a couple top 10 teams.

 

Albeit in very limited video, I wasn't enamored with Schnell's ability to barrel the ball. I do love me some toolsy HS'ers, though, and while he seems very raw, he is a candidate to pop in round one, even -as you mentioned- top ten.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Albeit in very limited video, I wasn't enamored with Schnell's ability to barrel the ball. I do love me some toolsy HS'ers, though, and while he seems very raw, he is a candidate to pop in round one, even -as you mentioned- top ten.

My biggest concern is that he bars himself off a bit, which limits his ability to get to inside pitches, but that’s a pretty minor issue IMO.

[Greg Pappas]

Here's the latest Fangraphs mock by Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/

I wouldn't be disappointed if we take India, though there are others I believe I'd prefer. Rolison has been inconsistent, though many pitchers are. I'd be quite disappointed if he's the pick. We'll see what happens.

[weams]

"[M]ortgaging part of the rest of their draft to take Mize and a bunch of college performers makes sense if you love Mize and his fit with your young club. In short, we think Philadelphia has incentive to try to move on Mize, and we’re hearing that if Mize doesn’t go first, this is where he will land. The buzz is that Mize’s camp is driving a hard bargain without real interest at pick No. 2, so this makes perfect sense given all the information we have, but there isn’t evidence the Phillies are actively trying to make this happen behind the scenes."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Results

1.11 Logan Gilbert - Stewart and Winn were also available/considered. I went with the college/Cape performer who I think has significant upside as well as being the college arm with the fewest red flags. (#5 on my preference list)

1.37 Nico Hoerner - Jeremiah Jackson and Griffin Conine were available and considered. I got a couple really bad looks at Conine in his first 6 NCAA regional ABs, that left a bad taste in my mouth so I went with Hoerner. The athletic prep SS Jackson was tempting. (#20 on my preference list)

3.87 Nick Dunn - Very surprised he got here, he's really underrated IMO. I also considered Nick Sandlin, Colton Eastman and Cal Raleigh in this spot. (would have been #51 on my preference list)

4.115 Steven Hajjar - So this might be an unfamiliar name, but he was my top HS arm that wasn't in my top 50. One of the youngest players in the class, he's a 6' 6" LHP who already repeats his mechanics well and touches 93. He's projectable and has the feel for two offspeed pitches already. Cold-weather arm with few miles on it.

The results from a live community mock draft over at minorleagueball. I picked for the Orioles.

[weams]

https://2080baseball.com/2018/05/defensive-indifference-ep-02-08/

[weams]

https://2080baseball.com/2018/04/2018-mlb-draft-ranking-the-top-125/

 

Rank	First Name	Last Name	Position	School	Level	Draft Day Age	Video	Notes
1	Casey	Mize	RHP	Auburn Univ.	4-YR	21.01	VIDEO	The most dominant arm in college baseball this spring, Mize has struck out 77 and walked just four in his 54 innings of work this spring, thanks to a plus fastball, split/changeup and command.
2	Shane	McClanahan	LHP	Univ. of South Florida	4-YR	21.02	VIDEO	McClanahan can work into the 94-to-96 mph range, bumping higher, and shows feel for a plus changeup and developing slider.
3	Jarred	Kelenic	OF	Waukesha West (Waukesha, Wisc.)	HS	18.11	VIDEO	A true five-tool talent, Kelenic boasts plus speed, plus arm strength (98 mph from the outfield) and impact potential at the plate, including exit velos of up to 104 mph this spring.
4	Ethan	Hankins	RHP	Forsyth Central (Cumming, Ga.)	HS	18.11	VIDEO	Perhaps the most dominant arm at the high school ranks during last summer's showcase circuit, Hankins regularly dials-up his heavy fastball to the upper 90s, mixing in a quality mid-80s changeup and an 11-to-5 breaker that flashes above-average.
5	Travis	Swaggerty	OF	Univ. of South Alabama	4-YR	20.10	VIDEO	An up-the-middle defender on the grass, Swaggerty was a catalyst for the Collegiate National Team last summer, slashing .328/.449/.406 while swiping six bags, and has hit for more power this spring thanks to a more lofted swing.
6	Nick	Madrigal	SS/2B	Oregon State Univ.	4-YR	21.03	VIDEO	Madrigal has missed most of the spring with a fractured hand -- when healthy he's among the top hitters in the draft class, slashing .380/.449/.532 last spring for the Beavers, though his uneven production with Team USA last summer has softened some evaluators.
7	Carter	Stewart	RHP	Eau Gallie (Melbourne, Fla.)	HS	18.07	VIDEO	Stewart has the best curveball in the draft class, consistently registering over 3,300 RPM with hard bite and elite depth, and has seen a velo jump this spring, now working in the low-to-mid 90s and touching as high as 98 mph.
8	Alec	Bohm	1B	Wichita St. Univ.	4-YR	21.10	VIDEO	One of the hottest risers on draft boards, Bohm could reach the top five (or higher) in short order thanks to impact power and production, both this spring (.355/.474/.644) and last summer on the Cape (.351/.399/.513).
9	Matthew	Liberatore	LHP	Mountain Ridge (Glendale, Ariz.)	HS	18.07	VIDEO	Liberatore boasts two potential future plus or better off-speed offerings with his curveball and changeup, to go with a projectable frame and a fastball that can reach the mid 90s.
10	Logan	Gilbert	RHP	Stetson Univ.	4-YR	21.01	VIDEO	Gilbert has already fanned 76 in 54 1/3 innings of work this spring, thanks to a lively low-90s fastball that can reach 95 mph and well-rounded four-pitch mix including an above-average changeup, quality slider and developing curve.
11	Ryan	Rolison	LHP	Univ. of Mississippi	4-YR	20.11	VIDEO	Rolison wowed last summer on the Cape, working 28 innings while striking out 35 and allowing just 10 walks and 15 hits, and has continued to demonstrate a bat-missing FB/SL combo this spring, striking out 63 batters in 46 2/3 innings of work.
12	Brady	Singer	RHP	Univ. of Florida	4-YR	21.10	VIDEO	Singer impresses evaluators with both his power arsenal and competitive demeanor on the mound, wielding a low-to-mid-90s heater and sweeping slider that can stand shoulder to shoulder with any other one-two punch in the draft class.
13	Jackson	Kowar	RHP	Univ. of Florida	4-YR	21.08	VIDEO	Kowar can work his fastball into the mid 90s, regularly clocking in at 90 to 94 mph on a steep downhill plane, and backs it up with a nice 12-to-6 curve and a solid low-80s changeup that presents with good arm speed and plane deception.
14	Nander	De Sedas	SS	Montverde (Montverde, Fla.)	HS	18.10	VIDEO	A switch-hitter with pop from both sides of the plate, the FSU commit has a left-side arm with hands that could play at the six-spot, long term.
15	Mason	Denaburg	RHP/C	Merritt Island (Merritt Island, Fla.)	HS	18.10	VIDEO	The Florida commit works primarily off of a low-to-mid 90s fastball that has reached as high as 97 mph this spring, while flashing a quality slider as a second plus or better offering (though a recent velo drop and elbow soreness portend a potential slip in draft-day stock if he's not able to return to the bump before June).

[Luke-OH]

I watched Logan Gilbert's start against Oklahoma State in NCAA postseason regional play.

Here is a brief report.

Tall, lean, well proportioned, present lower half strength, some room for good weight 5-10lb. Live arm, uses lower half well, deliberate arm circle, quick through release. Repeatable, athletic delivery, excellent extension. Extremely calm presence on the mound. Competitive and focused, but not emotional.

Threw 121 pitches, 78 for strikes.

23 swinging strikes (19%), 4 on Curveballs, 1 on Slider, 2 on Changeups, 16 on FB

Threw nearly 70% FB with about 20% Curveballs, and maybe 8-9 sliders, 3 changeups (might have been a couple more that he threw too firm and looked like slow FB)

FB ranged from 87-94, but was mostly 92-94 through the first 80-some pitches, his 77th pitch was 94mph and his 114th pitch was 92mph. Even at 100+ pitches he was mostly 90-91.

FB plays above it's velocity with late run when down in the zone and impressive ride when located up. He gets elite extension out of his 6'6" frame and the ball jumps out of his hand. He commanded the pitch fairly well, and could move it up and down in the zone at will. Little difficulty with location in and out, which led to two HR allowed on fastballs that ran right into the hitter's wheelhouse. 

CU 73-77, sharp break early and late in the game, 1-7 with significant depth, softer shape in the middle of the outing. Was able to throw for strikes often, also able to spike in the dirt for swings, although he failed to finish some of those pitches.

SL 81-84, more of a cutter-type movement, tight but small horizontal and vertical break. Induced GB/foul balls mostly, was able to throw it for strikes. Could be a weapon if he could give it a touch more horizontal run.

Grades (present/future)

FB 55/55 - was plus early, but just average late, can flatten out at times, but will miss bats at the pro level. Plays well above it's velocity.

CB 55/60 - flashed plus, was just average at times, but he broke out the plus version late when needed

SL 45/50 - this pitch has a high ceiling, it plays off his curveball/fastball well, currently it's more of a change of pace than a weapon

CH 50/55 - didn't use it much, but it's very deceptive, this is a pitch that should play up in pro ball and well more repetition

Command 45/55 - fringe average command is very good from the college ranks, the only guy with stuff who is better is Casey Mize IMO. The clean delivery and repeatable delivery give him a good shot at getting to above average command as a pro. Tall guys with stuff usually aren't this far along at this point. 

[Otter]

Watched a few of the later innings of McLanahan's start against Hartford.  The stuff is elite; fastball has velocity and life, along with movement (at least it looked that way on TV).  The slider also flashed plus on occasion in my opinion.  However, the team that drafts him is going to have to be extremely patient and put in a lot of work with him.  His mechanics, arm slot, and follow through were all over the place and varied greatly from pitch to pitch.  Both his control and command would come and go from hitter to hitter.  In the innings I watched he had a really hard time commanding his fastball when it was in the 94-96 range, and he visibly slowed his delivery and arm speed in order to throw strikes.  When his fastball was 90-91, he had much better control but not necessarily command.  That being said, it was a small sample size and it could have just been a bad game.  But in this game he made Tanner Scott look like Greg Maddux.  He just didn't look like a first round pick IMO.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Otter said:

Watched a few of the later innings of McLanahan's start against Hartford.  The stuff is elite; fastball has velocity and life, along with movement (at least it looked that way on TV).  The slider also flashed plus on occasion in my opinion.  However, the team that drafts him is going to have to be extremely patient and put in a lot of work with him.  His mechanics, arm slot, and follow through were all over the place and varied greatly from pitch to pitch.  Both his control and command would come and go from hitter to hitter.  In the innings I watched he had a really hard time commanding his fastball when it was in the 94-96 range, and he visibly slowed his delivery and arm speed in order to throw strikes.  When his fastball was 90-91, he had much better control but not necessarily command.  That being said, it was a small sample size and it could have just been a bad game.  But in this game he made Tanner Scott look like Greg Maddux.  He just didn't look like a first round pick IMO.

I caught part of it as well and wasn't impressed, he's definitely worn down considerably as the season has progressed. That's concerning given the previous TJS, effort to the delivery, and less than ideal stature.

He had an 80 FB with a 60 SL earlier this year, the peak stuff will put him in the first, but I wouldn't touch him at 11.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I caught part of it as well and wasn't impressed, he's definitely worn down considerably as the season has progressed. That's concerning given the previous TJS, effort to the delivery, and less than ideal stature.

He had an 80 FB with a 60 SL earlier this year, the peak stuff will put him in the first, but I wouldn't touch him at 11.

This might slip him to 11. I'm still a fan.