What kind of team would you build?

[jamalshw]

I think the current market inefficiency is for high contact, marginal power guys. Its all about the three true outcomes (walks, homers and Ks). To me, there's something to be said about guys that can put the ball and play and make things happen.

Because of that, I'd love to see a team offense built around high OBP guys with good team speed. More than that, though, I'd focus on guys that also have a solid average. I know average has become inconsequential lately and I'd still want guys that have a good command of the zone and willingness to take a walk, but I also want guys that'll spread the ball and hit to all fields.

I would also prioritize defense and, fortunately, the speedsters tend to be better defenders (or at least cover more ground). On the mound, I'd focus more on starting pitching than bullpen arms as I see the bullpen guys as more volitale. With good bullpen arms getting paid more and more, the cost is no longer worth as much of a gamble. I'd rather have a couple anchor guys in the pen and try to make it work with guys like Richard Rodriguez (look what he's doing with Pittsburgh, to bad we don't have him...oh, wait).

[atomic]

Fast good defensive players. Players who have high OBP and low strike outs who can steal bases and play their positions.  Then focus on starting pitching.  

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, now said:

Where's our handy WAR conversion tool to actually compare the value of these two players?

Can’t quite do it without knowing whether the extra 40 points of BA comes entirely from singles, or also more doubles and triples than the more powerful player (or fewer).    But let’s assume those things are a wash, and each player gets 600 PA and assume 32 doubles and no triples for each.   That means 180 times on base for the power hitter, 228 for the OBP guy (36 more walks, 12 more hits).   SLG would be .488 for the slugger, .429 for the on base guy.    OPS .788 for the slugger, .809 for the on base guy.    Throw in the fact that OBP is weighted more heavily than SLG in the more advanced formulas, and the higher OBP guy is clearly the more valuable hitter in this hypothetical.   

[now]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can’t quite do it without knowing whether the extra 40 points of BA comes entirely from singles, or also more doubles and triples than the more powerful player (or fewer).    But let’s assume those things are a wash, and each player gets 600 PA and assume 32 doubles and no triples for each.   That means 180 times on base for the power hitter, 228 for the OBP guy (36 more walks, 12 more hits).   SLG would be .488 for the slugger, .429 for the on base guy.    OPS .788 for the slugger, .809 for the on base guy.    Throw in the fact that OBP is weighted more heavily than SLG in the more advanced formulas, and the higher OBP guy is clearly the more valuable hitter in this hypothetical.   

Good stuff. Now seriously, how cool would it be to have an app where you just plug in the various basic stats and it would spit out OPS, WAR, and $value!!!

[Camden_yardbird]

Let see.  Of the last 14 WS winners all but one was a large market team.  In the last 5 years the only team to win by spending less than $125 million was the Royals.   Houston was at $125 million and was the only team to have a smaller salary than the loser.

That said three teams have made the WS in the last five years with salaries below $110 million, the Royals (losers in 2013), the Indians and the Mets.  The Indians and Mets had top 10 pitching staffs.  The Royals had a well rounded team with a lock down bullpen and strong defense.

So absent the Orioles becoming a large market team, I would prioritize pitching and defense and strong on base skills.  To get there though will require two things, international spending and young talent either through a true fire sale or several years of being a bottom 5 team.

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, now said:

Hmm, my take would be the opposite of this. Seems to me the Orioles of the Showalter era have been largely successful on fundamentals, making up for a shortfall in pure talent compared to other clubs; with the poster boy being J.J. Hardy, or, on the pitching side, say, Darren O'Day.

Well I'm not sacrificing actual performance for fundamental soundness. It's just how I'm selecting my players out of the gate - if they don't deliver, I'd be faster to cut the cord and move on.

Hardy and O'Day aren't great examples, as both got hurt, were never the same after they got hurt, and were given endless chances by the team due in large part to sentiment.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Hardy and O'Day aren't great examples, as both got hurt, were never the same after they got hurt, and were given endless chances by the team due in large part to sentiment.

If you look at how each of them did their first four years they were here, they were awesome.    I think a big lesson is, keep the team relatively young.    

[esmd]

3 hours ago, now said:

Hmm, my take would be the opposite of this. Seems to me the Orioles of the Showalter era have been largely successful on fundamentals, making up for a shortfall in pure talent compared to other clubs; with the poster boy being J.J. Hardy, or, on the pitching side, say, Darren O'Day.

I would agree, to an extent.  The 2nd half of last year and so far this year they have not been a fundamentally sound team.

[esmd]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Can’t quite do it without knowing whether the extra 40 points of BA comes entirely from singles, or also more doubles and triples than the more powerful player (or fewer).    But let’s assume those things are a wash, and each player gets 600 PA and assume 32 doubles and no triples for each.   That means 180 times on base for the power hitter, 228 for the OBP guy (36 more walks, 12 more hits).   SLG would be .488 for the slugger, .429 for the on base guy.    OPS .788 for the slugger, .809 for the on base guy.    Throw in the fact that OBP is weighted more heavily than SLG in the more advanced formulas, and the higher OBP guy is clearly the more valuable hitter in this hypothetical.   

Pretty cool stuff.  Thanks for the education.

[25 Nuggets]

I'm going to break it down by positional group:

OF:  I'd try to have a CF in the high OBP, good defense mold.  I want mashers in the corners, guys with high OPS+ that play up to Camden Yards.  If they're not good defenders the CF can cover for them.  I'd definitely want a reserve glove OF, and an offense-first PH type.  In other words, not that different from the model that the Orioles use.  For the actual team, I would have moved Adam Jones to RF and gotten a rangier CF a while ago.

IF:  Getting a good hitting catcher is important to me.  Arm, blocking, framing... all of that is nice too, but historically in order to have a top-notch lineup, you need to get offense where most teams don't and then stack that on top of offense where you expect it.  1B, masher, preferably left handed but not necessary.  Average defense is fine.  Now 2B-3B-SS, I really want some good gloves.  People that erase ground balls and turn double plays.  Again, this is not so different from the Orioles philosophy during their recent playoff runs.

DH:  Could go with DH-by-committee, but no.  Not here.  Give me a J.D. Martinez.  A highly paid, top-of-the-line DH makes a big difference, and there aren't really that many of them.

SP:  Full of high strikeout, low WHIP pitchers and ground ball machines.  I can live with either giving up solo home runs, or a lack of home runs combined with a bunch of double plays.  The ground ball pitchers work with the good infield defense.  But Camden Yards is simply a place where home runs happen.  The funny thing is how different these two profiles are from each other, and yet they can both win games.  What I don't want are pitchers that need a big ballpark to induce fly balls and be effective because well, we don't have a big ballpark.

RP:  High K, low WHIP machines from both sides of the plate.  I would prioritize the bullpen, as the Orioles have done.

 

Basically, the Orioles have had the kind of team structure in mind that works for a team that plays in a HR haven - and lo, they've made the playoffs a few times and even reached the ALCS once.  But then they made some bad payroll decisions and here we are.  Where would I put the money?  That depends entirely on the kind of prospects that pan out in the developmental system.  There should be no definitive answer there.  But I sure would try to sign extensions of my best players well before the Orioles have tried to.

[now]

2 hours ago, esmd said:

I would agree, to an extent.  The 2nd half of last year and so far this year they have not been a fundamentally sound team.

True dat (unfortunately).

And with Buck still at the helm, one wonders how that could happen.

Maybe fundamentals are more of a tool than a skill, after all?

[weams]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Of course, we’d all like to see a team that does everything well.    But if you were the Orioles’ new GM and were given free reign, what kind of team would you try to build?   What characteristics would be most important to you?

Pitching vs. hitting?

Offense vs. defense?

Power vs. speed/OBP?

Rotation vs. bullpen?

Raw talent vs. fundamental soundness?

Assume you can’t have it all — what are your points of emphasis?   And take into account where we play.

Pitching  / Power. 

Unless moving to Portland. 

Raw talent. Coach them up. 

Rotation. Always Rotation.

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

If you look at how each of them did their first four years they were here, they were awesome.    I think a big lesson is, keep the team relatively young.    

Precisely. Hardy and O'Day had some very strong years in O's colors... They just got old, got busted and lost value, and the organization was unwilling to let them go. It wasn't a case of choosing fundamentals over raw talent. It was a mistake in sentiment.

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Pitching  / Power. 

Unless moving to Portland. 

Raw talent. Coach them up. 

Rotation. Always Rotation.

Don't say things like this, it makes me sad. And I live in Portland now. I'd still hate it.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Don't say things like this, it makes me sad. And I live in Portland now. I'd still hate it.

I'm being completely honest. Small ball gets slaughtered over the long run in the Yard. Bundy gave up two hits today Fanned 14! We still would lose 3-2.