TT: Orioles get Haul for Machado

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t.      Jones was Seattle’s no. 1 prospect and a top 20 guy.   I believe Tillman was no. 2 and Butler no. 6.    Sherrill was established as a good major league reliever.    That was a much bigger haul — as it should have been.  

I disagree as I stated above. Regardless of where they were in Seattle's list, if you look at their stats, age, and overall scouting, I think the Machado haul has the potential to be even better. 

Jones was rightfully so a top prospect and he probably would be more highly rated than Diaz. Diaz won't have the power that Jones has but I think Diaz will hit for a higher average and OBP. 

Reading the scouting reports on Kremer, he sounds a lot like a young Tillman and let's face it, Tillman was really a 4th/5th starter who was occasionally a 2 or 3 starter.

Even so, the other three guys the Orioles got have the potential to all have roles, including the potential to be an everyday player and closer. Obviously Butler was an injury guy and Sherrill was a solid reliever, but what am I saying is that this haul has the potential to be much better. It may not be, but the fact that it has this much potential for a two and half month rental is astounding.

 

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Tillman was certainly a more highly regarded prospect than Kremer is. Would be happy to get the 12.7 rWAR we got from Tillman's first 6+ seasons out of Kremer.

Sure, he was, but the scouting reports sound a lot alike. Kremer may have a tick or two higher velocity and but his curveball was his out pitch as was Tillman early on. The difference will be whether Kremer's change and slider can become average.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Mancini's arm as it turns out is not the problem.  I don't want to see Mountcastle out there if he can't move.

I suspect this will clear up once Trumbo is gone.

What makes you think Mountcastle can't move. He's an ok runner once he gets moving. Not a base stealer but not a clog.

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, atomic said:

He kills the Orioles out there. He has zero range.  He is not an outfielder.

He reminds me of myself.  When I was in my early 20's playing softball I played center field.  So when I joined my company softball team I thought I was a center fielder  After a game I thought I was a Right Fielder. After that I took my place at first base and stayed there.  I wasn't butchering anything but I wasn't getting to anything in the outfield either that wasn't hit right to me. Mancini is like 45 year old me.  

Well can't argue with your company softball analogy.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Go_Os said:

MLB already has the new guys ranked

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=bal

That list is so crazy that I can't even start to discuss it's wrongness. lol

Raise your hand if you think Sedlock is a better prospect than Stewart, Kramer, Baumann, Lowther or about ten other guys on that list!

Who here would rate Mason McCoy over Ryan Mckenna who comes in at a laughable #28 behind guys like aforementioned McCoy, Rifeala, Reyes, Kline, Wynns and several other fringe prospects. 

I normally don't bash lists because they are opinions, but good God. I think Josh Hart would still be on the list if the Orioles hadn't cut him.

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

That list is so crazy that I can't even start to discuss it's wrongness. lol

Raise your hand if you think Sedlock is a better prospect than Stewart, Kramer, Baumann, Lowther or about ten other guys on that list!

Who here would rate Mason McCoy over Ryan Mckenna who comes in at a laughable #28 behind guys like aforementioned McCoy, Rifeala, Reyes, Kline, Wynns and several other fringe prospects. 

I normally don't bash lists because they are opinions, but good God. I think Josh Hart would still be on the list if the Orioles hadn't cut him.

They update their list at the same frequency of you and your guys. I assume it will be updated soon. They probably just plugged these guys in based on whatever rating system the used for the last ranking.

[hoosiers]

Nice analysis, Tony!  I respectfully disagree on the Seattle package - that was a big time package.  Tillman was a league top 5 prospect in High A at the time of the trade IIRC and he eventually became a mid-season BA Top 10 prospect - like Matusz.  Sherrill was the third part of that trade and he became a closer who was flipped for an organizational top five prospect.  Diaz won't have AJ's power, but he will probably have a career obp 30-50s point higher than AJ.  We'll see - I hope you are right.

Anyway, I believe the Os are two nice drafts and some international participation away from a top five farm system about two years out - entering 2021 - when we should still have another very high draft pick.  Lots of losing between now and then.

Chin up, Os fans.  We took the first steps toward our next competitive team today.

[glenn__davis]

9 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Reading the scouting reports on Kremer, he sounds a lot like a young Tillman and let's face it, Tillman was really a 4th/5th starter who was occasionally a 2 or 3 starter.

I think this sells Tillman pretty short.  He was much better than a 4/5 starter for a 5-year run or so.  

[Luke-OH]

9 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Nice analysis, Tony!  I respectfully disagree on the Seattle package - that was a big time package.  Tillman was a league top 5 prospect in High A at the time of the trade IIRC and he eventually became a mid-season BA Top 10 prospect - like Matusz.  Sherrill was the third part of that trade and he became a closer who was flipped for an organizational top five prospect.  Diaz won't have AJ's power, but he will probably have a career obp 30-50s point higher than AJ.  We'll see - I hope you are right.

Anyway, I believe the Os are two nice drafts and some international participation away from a top five farm system about two years out - entering 2021 - when we should still have another very high draft pick.  Lots of losing between now and then.

Chin up, Os fans.  We took the first steps toward our next competitive team today.

I agree that the Seattle deal was a bigger haul and of course it was, Bedard was controllable.

This is a strong return for a Machado rental, Diaz is the best centerpiece of the ones rumored to be available (Medina, Burnes, etc). With the rest of the package they did well to get guys who are in AA or ready for AA but still have realistic MLB regular upside, that's hard to do. Pop has the realistic upside of a set-up man, Bannon of an everyday 3B or 2B, and Kremer of a backend starter. Usually throw-ins with this type of realistic upside (I'm not talking absolute ceiling) are much more raw/risky. These guys are likely to at least be up and down types, that's a good combination of floor/ceiling in addition to arguably a top 50 prospect. 

[MachoMachadoMan]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I disagree as I stated above. Regardless of where they were in Seattle's list, if you look at their stats, age, and overall scouting, I think the Machado haul has the potential to be even better. 

Jones was rightfully so a top prospect and he probably would be more highly rated than Diaz. Diaz won't have the power that Jones has but I think Diaz will hit for a higher average and OBP. 

Reading the scouting reports on Kremer, he sounds a lot like a young Tillman and let's face it, Tillman was really a 4th/5th starter who was occasionally a 2 or 3 starter.

Even so, the other three guys the Orioles got have the potential to all have roles, including the potential to be an everyday player and closer. Obviously Butler was an injury guy and Sherrill was a solid reliever, but what am I saying is that this haul has the potential to be much better. It may not be, but the fact that it has this much potential for a two and half month rental is astounding.

 

Tony, I appreciate the optimism here, but when I consider Bedard Haul vs. Machado Haul, the Bedard Haul was significantly better at the time of the trade. In retrospect, we can look back and say Tillman was never a real top of the line starter, but at the time he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had him #16 Overall and the 5th starting pitcher the offseason after the trade. The offseason prior to the trade, he was #44 Overall. 

To be equal to the Bedard Haul, we would've needed to get Diaz and Mays, as many of us were hoping for. 

All of that said, I am happy with this trade and I'm thankful for your analysis and optimism. I hope Kremer  and Pop dominate during the second half and we look back at the Machado Haul as the beginning of brighter days for the organization like the Bedard Haul set in motion. 

[Ruzious]

From listening to Dodgers fans, we can't understate the importance of getting Bannon in this trade - as long as he's used at 2nd base.  They think he has all-star potential there - defensively and offensively.  And it sounds like the O's are promoting him to AA - hopefully at 2nd base.  And getting both Kremer and Pop... great job by the O's.  I'm pleasantly surprised.  We need to keep Duq - my guess is that this was primarily his work.   

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Go_Os said:

MLB already has the new guys ranked

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=bal

If they’re going to update the list, why don’t they really update it?    Their ordering of the incumbent prospects is just crazy in spots.   

[Aristotelian]

I found this 2006 prospect sheet with Jones rated #1 in the organization but a B+ rating and comparison to Mike Cameron upside.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/12/17/10418/783

Jones was not on the Acuna/Vlad Jr level. The same website had Diaz as #7 and B/B+ going into the season, but Diaz seems to have really elevated himself even further with that .428 OBP in AA. 

Tillman was #7 after pitching to close to 5 ERA in A Ball with a lot of walks. I think we got insanely lucky to get what we did out of Tillman.

Sherrill probably elevated the Mariners package but that is understandable for a controlled elite pitcher. For a rental of Manny, I would say that is a good deal and I agree that the package overall could be argued comparable to what we got for Bedard. DD seemed to target some guys with lower rankings but good numbers in positions of need. Time will tell but the potential is there.

 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I found this 2006 prospect sheet with Jones rated #1 in the organization but a B+ rating and comparison to Mike Cameron upside.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/12/17/10418/783

Jones was not on the Acuna/Vlad Jr level. The same website had Diaz as #7 and B/B+ going into the season, but Diaz seems to have really elevated himself even further with that .428 OBP in AA. 

Tillman was #7 after pitching to close to 5 ERA in A Ball with a lot of walks. I think we got insanely lucky to get what we did out of Tillman.

Sherrill probably elevated the Mariners package but that is understandable for a controlled elite pitcher. For a rental of Manny, I would say that is a good deal and I agree that the package overall could be argued comparable to what we got for Bedard. DD seemed to target some guys with lower rankings but good numbers in positions of need. Time will tell but the potential is there.

 

Your description of Jones strikes me as correct.    I remember one of the prospect pundits being asked where Jones would have been ranked if he still had prospect status (he didn’t), and the answer was 20th or so.     Not Vlad Jr. or Acuna, but higher than Diaz.    

Tillman was definitely ranked higher in some circles than what you cite from Sickles.    Yeah he struggled a bit in HiA, but he was only 19 and that was an extreme hitters’ league (league ERA of 4.85).    Butler was also highly regarded, but got hurt his first year with us and that was the end of him.   

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree that the Seattle deal was a bigger haul and of course it was, Bedard was controllable.

This is a strong return for a Machado rental, Diaz is the best centerpiece of the ones rumored to be available (Medina, Burnes, etc). With the rest of the package they did well to get guys who are in AA or ready for AA but still have realistic MLB regular upside, that's hard to do. Pop has the realistic upside of a set-up man, Bannon of an everyday 3B or 2B, and Kremer of a backend starter. Usually throw-ins with this type of realistic upside (I'm not talking absolute ceiling) are much more raw/risky. These guys are likely to at least be up and down types, that's a good combination of floor/ceiling in addition to arguably a top 50 prospect. 

It is interesting that DD took what I perceive to be lower ceiling, less risky guys - several of whom should see the majors - instead of a couple of lottery tickets at the lower rungs.  It would be nice if our scouts advised on the right guys and Kremer does become a decent starter.