The Orioles Should Trade Gausman at the Deadline

[weams]

1 minute ago, Rene88 said:

I support both teams. Longer I am in DC, the more I like the Nats but follow and love both. Assuming your question is sincere and not trolling like others.

Should they buy or should they sell. 

[Rene88]

Just now, weams said:

Should they buy or should they sell. 

I would they should trade Harper and I think it’s addition by subtraction. You know my opinion on Dusty:)

Headed to Bowie tonight, weather permitting.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

I would they should trade Harper and I think it’s addition by subtraction. You know my opinion on Dusty:)

Headed to Bowie tonight, weather permitting.

Say hi to Rylan for me. I got them starting Thursday. 

[Hallas]

8 hours ago, MSBird said:

A deal centered around Brendan Rodgers would be a huge win. Unless the Rockies decide to flip Arenado (if they don’t think they can resign him) 2B is the only spot open for Rodgers. If Gausman’s value is to the point that it could net Rodgers+, that’s a move you have to make. Even if Gausman takes a big step forward in the next year or two, I’d rather have a controlled Rodgers when the next competitive window opens (hopefully 2020-21) instead of having to pay up for Gausman. I’d take the risk of dealing Gausman now, even if there’s a chance he blows up and further increases his trade value before FA, if it nets prospect/s of Rodgers caliber. 

I have to think that Gausman returning a prospect as good as Rodgers would be a pretty big overpay on the Rockies' part.  If we look back to the Bedard trade, we traded an ace in the offseason for Jones, a #44 prospect in 2007, Tillman, who was I believe #42 prospect in 2008, and moved up to #16 in 2009.  And that was for 2 years of an unqualified ace.  Gausman is definitely not that, and while the Rockies get him for an extra 1/2 season, the Rockies would have to be banking on some serious development on the part of Gausman for that to be a fair trade.  Even if you consider the #12 prospect to be roughly equal to the #44 and #42 prospects (not a foregone conclusion) 1: I don't think Gausman is nearly on the same level as 2007/2008 Bedard, and 2: the Bedard trade was pretty widely considered to be an overpay, so I'm not sure if you can expect even close to an equivalent package.

[Rene88]

Weams: Nats scouts at game tonight. As I said on Twitter, thinking Kieboom (Os do want a long term answer at SS). 2+ years left of Gausman ...makes sense. And let’s be honest, we know he will be better once he leaves the vortex. 

[MSBird]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

I have to think that Gausman returning a prospect as good as Rodgers would be a pretty big overpay on the Rockies' part.  If we look back to the Bedard trade, we traded an ace in the offseason for Jones, a #44 prospect in 2007, Tillman, who was I believe #42 prospect in 2008, and moved up to #16 in 2009.  And that was for 2 years of an unqualified ace.  Gausman is definitely not that, and while the Rockies get him for an extra 1/2 season, the Rockies would have to be banking on some serious development on the part of Gausman for that to be a fair trade.  Even if you consider the #12 prospect to be roughly equal to the #44 and #42 prospects (not a foregone conclusion) 1: I don't think Gausman is nearly on the same level as 2007/2008 Bedard, and 2: the Bedard trade was pretty widely considered to be an overpay, so I'm not sure if you can expect even close to an equivalent package.

Rodgers is blocked at SS and 3B and would have to stick at 2B to see the field. If the Rockies want Gausman, the ask should be Rodgers. If the Rockies don’t want to part with Rodgers, the Orioles should feel no pressure to trade Gausman to the Rockies. Yes, the Bedard trade is widely seen as an overpay, but it’s hard to use prior trades/overall prospect rankings as a barameter for future trades. If the Rockies value Gausman as much as they are rumored to value him and they feel like he can be a top of the rotation starter (which they’ve been lacking for a while), the Orioles should try to get Rodgers. If the Rockies aren’t willing to part with him (or a package of comparable value), the Orioles should move on to the next suitor (even if that doesn’t  come until the offseason/next trade deadline). 

[Thato'sfan]

To trade or not to trade. That is the dilemma faced by the Orioles as the upcoming July 31st non-waiver trade deadline approaches. Though it has become clear that multiple veteran rental pieces will be moved, the people in the warehouse must decide whether some of the controllable pieces should be made available.

In comes Kevin Gausman.

The 27 year old Colorado native, whose inconsistency has made him an enigma to evaluators and fans alike, is amid one of his better first half performances as an Oriole. Gausman, known for being an outstanding second half pitcher, carries an uninspiring 4.54 ERA through 20 starts this season. However, Gausman has shown some encouraging signs this season, including a strong strikeout rate of 7.615/9IP and a career low BB/9. Furthermore, he has averaged 5.85 innings per start this season, making him an appealing option for contenders in need of managing valuable bullpen innings as he has been able to often work late into ballgames. In addition, his durability over the past three years and his untapped potential make him a prime candidate to be traded for a major haul.

That being said, this is not the right time to trade Gausman. He is having his worst month of the season, carrying a 5.96 July ERA along with a strikeout rate of 4.4K/9. Some of you might say that this is a SSS bias, but no reasonable team would give up a haul for a guy with such a decline in overall performance over the last month. Gausman would become too large of a question mark for contenders attempting to solidify their pitching staff.

We may be getting somewhat overly excited with the thought of a stacked farm system and trading players. The Orioles would be wise to wait off on dealing Gausman in the offseason. If reports of the Orioles viewing Gausman as a front of the rotation starter, their only chance of receiving a fitting haul would be after a strong second half from KG. Even though some of his stats are inflated due to poor defense, Gausman's season hasn't good enough to entice contenders to pay the steep asking price.

Some may point to Gausman's decreased Velo as a major red flag, but in reality it isn't. His strikeout rate prior to July was well above 8/9 IP and has been a mid-rotation starter. Someone will eventually be willing to trade a haul for him, but it won't happen this season.

Given that the Orioles won't be contenders for a few years at the least, KG should certainly be dealt. But the Orioles can't rush into it. They must be extremely thorough in scouting suitors and should be comfortable with the return. Don't get it twisted, this has to be a franchise altering trade. And it has to be a win. There is no need to to look further than the Bedard trade of 2008 to see the potential impact of these sorts of trades.

 

 

[Hallas]

5 hours ago, MSBird said:

Rodgers is blocked at SS and 3B and would have to stick at 2B to see the field. If the Rockies want Gausman, the ask should be Rodgers. If the Rockies don’t want to part with Rodgers, the Orioles should feel no pressure to trade Gausman to the Rockies. Yes, the Bedard trade is widely seen as an overpay, but it’s hard to use prior trades/overall prospect rankings as a barameter for future trades. If the Rockies value Gausman as much as they are rumored to value him and they feel like he can be a top of the rotation starter (which they’ve been lacking for a while), the Orioles should try to get Rodgers. If the Rockies aren’t willing to part with him (or a package of comparable value), the Orioles should move on to the next suitor (even if that doesn’t  come until the offseason/next trade deadline). 

I get that, but this isn't a Manny situation where there is no equivalent player on the market.  Cole Hamels and Happ are probably better pitchers than Gausman, and could likely be had for cheaper (yes I'm aware that they aren't controlled past this year.  That may be seen as a bonus.)  And the Rays are shopping Chris Archer, and I'm sure the Rays would love to have Rodgers, as their recent farmhand callups (Arroyo and Adames) haven't done so great this year.  It's unlikely that another suitor is going to come around willing to give a current-top-15 prospect, given that there are mid-rotation starters available all the time.  And yes, he gets a bonus for having top-tier stuff, but he hasn't actually put it together yet, so even if a team is banking on getting it all together for him, they're not going to trade for him as if he were a #1/2 starter.

[TonySoprano]

 

[wildbillhiccup]

14 hours ago, MSBird said:

Rodgers is blocked at SS and 3B and would have to stick at 2B to see the field. If the Rockies want Gausman, the ask should be Rodgers. If the Rockies don’t want to part with Rodgers, the Orioles should feel no pressure to trade Gausman to the Rockies. Yes, the Bedard trade is widely seen as an overpay, but it’s hard to use prior trades/overall prospect rankings as a barameter for future trades. If the Rockies value Gausman as much as they are rumored to value him and they feel like he can be a top of the rotation starter (which they’ve been lacking for a while), the Orioles should try to get Rodgers. If the Rockies aren’t willing to part with him (or a package of comparable value), the Orioles should move on to the next suitor (even if that doesn’t  come until the offseason/next trade deadline). 

I mean, I'm all for trading Gausman (and getting Rodgers), but you act like there's no place for him to play in Colorado. That's simply not true. The team plans to use him at 2b when LeMahieu becomes a free agent at the end of the season. I think the scouts even say that he projects to be a better defensive 2b than SS. So unless the Rockies resign LeMahieu I don't see them trading Rodgers. Unless they plan on making a run at Dozier or Lowrie. After that it's slim pickings at 2b. 

[foxfield]

14 hours ago, MSBird said:

Rodgers is blocked at SS and 3B and would have to stick at 2B to see the field. If the Rockies want Gausman, the ask should be Rodgers. If the Rockies don’t want to part with Rodgers, the Orioles should feel no pressure to trade Gausman to the Rockies. Yes, the Bedard trade is widely seen as an overpay, but it’s hard to use prior trades/overall prospect rankings as a barameter for future trades. If the Rockies value Gausman as much as they are rumored to value him and they feel like he can be a top of the rotation starter (which they’ve been lacking for a while), the Orioles should try to get Rodgers. If the Rockies aren’t willing to part with him (or a package of comparable value), the Orioles should move on to the next suitor (even if that doesn’t  come until the offseason/next trade deadline). 

I like this, but in all honesty if he is good enough, he makes his own position.  Manny was "blocked" by JJ Hardy.  The Orioles found a way to get the 19 yr old on the field.  Of course, I hope you are right!

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I like this, but in all honesty if he is good enough, he makes his own position.  Manny was "blocked" by JJ Hardy.  The Orioles found a way to get the 19 yr old on the field.  Of course, I hope you are right!

If he isn't traded he'll be their staring 2b in 2019. Or they'll use Hampson as a stop gap to start the season then call up Rodgers mid-season. 

 

When Rodgers was in high school, scouts debated whether he was a long-term shortstop. The consensus now is that while he doesn’t have the quickness and range teams typically desire there, his arm strength and instincts allow him to get the job done at short. He could be a solid defender at second or third base, though Nolan Arenado blocks him at the hot corner in Colorado.

[awannabegeek]

9 hours ago, Hallas said:

I get that, but this isn't a Manny situation where there is no equivalent player on the market.  Cole Hamels and Happ are probably better pitchers than Gausman, and could likely be had for cheaper (yes I'm aware that they aren't controlled past this year.  That may be seen as a bonus.)  And the Rays are shopping Chris Archer, and I'm sure the Rays would love to have Rodgers, as their recent farmhand callups (Arroyo and Adames) haven't done so great this year.  It's unlikely that another suitor is going to come around willing to give a current-top-15 prospect, given that there are mid-rotation starters available all the time.  And yes, he gets a bonus for having top-tier stuff, but he hasn't actually put it together yet, so even if a team is banking on getting it all together for him, they're not going to trade for him as if he were a #1/2 starter.

Holy name recognition Batman!

Cole Hamels has had a much much better career than KG, he is not currently a better pitcher than KG though

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=P

Controllable years are not just a bonus, they're a major difference.  It's the reason why the Orioles got a top 50-75 prospect as a centerpiece for a HOF talent and the Padres got a top 15 prospect for a Closer and journeyman (albeit one that is currently and will probably continue to have excellent results). 

[jamalshw]

How long is LeMahieu out? Would the Rockies do a Schoop and Gausman package for Rodgers + Almonte + Hilliard (or something of that ilk)? 

 

If it's just Gausman, I ask for Rodgers, but don't think it ends there. I would be willing to do something with McMahon and Lambert. Would Colorado do something like that? Lambert gets to a pretty close arm and McMahon is behind Rodgers, Story, Arenado and likely Garrett Hampson. Meanwhile, Colton Welker and Tyler Nevin aren't that far off if you envision McMahon at 1B for the Rockies. He's seemingly fallen out of favor with his slow start to this year, too.

[Thato'sfan]

7 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

How long is LeMahieu out? Would the Rockies do a Schoop and Gausman package for Rodgers + Almonte + Hilliard (or something of that ilk)? 

 

If it's just Gausman, I ask for Rodgers, but don't think it ends there. I would be willing to do something with McMahon and Lambert. Would Colorado do something like that? Lambert gets to a pretty close arm and McMahon is behind Rodgers, Story, Arenado and likely Garrett Hampson. Meanwhile, Colton Welker and Tyler Nevin aren't that far off if you envision McMahon at 1B for the Rockies. He's seemingly fallen out of favor with his slow start to this year, too.

Not timetable on the Lemahieu injury. It might be a rough fit with Schoop and Lemahieu, but this would be  a great trade for the Rockies. The peak of their window likely closes after 2019, since Arenado will probably be gone. Lemahieu being an upcoming free agent, Schoop would give them a better team for next year and maximizes their potential to win. They are a pitching starved team and Gausman presents himself as a solid rotation reinforcement(his fastball/splitter combo would probably play well in the high altitude compared to breaking ball guys). I don't know if we would take back lemahieu, but this would certainly give Colorado their best chance to win a ring.