Schoop, Gausman, and Bundy Trade Expectations

[Bradysburns]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s the thing about Schoop — he doesn’t really have an established, consistent level of offensive performance.   We have some feel for his power capabilities, but his on base capabilities are really up in the air.    Overall if I’m an outside evaluator I probably believe his career numbers are about indicative of his midpoint expectation, maybe slightly bumped up to discount his rookie season.   And yes, I expect his market value today exceeds what it’ll be next July.

So let me see if I got this straight. 

1) Schoop had an all-star, breakout year last season, heading into his prime... OPSing at .840, which would rank him fourth (OPS-wise) among all qualifying second basemen today.

2) This year, he stunk up the first half, and some peripherals look questionable, suggesting a possible long-term reversion to around .740 OPS, which would rank him 14th among 22 qualifying second basemen as of today

So you're assuming a couple conditions when you say he'd likely draw more return now, versus after the season or next season. 

A) Schoop's current perceived value is likely a .740-ish OPS player, his lifetime average OPS, which would rank him in the bottom half of all qualifying second basemen right now, according to MLB.

B) That Schoop's REAL long-term value may be a .740 OPS player, thus the calculus moves to controllability, and that alone (because we can assume his offensive performance will be mediocre, so trade partners would prefer more of that than less)

The second point is where we depart, and strongly. I believe Schoop will return to an .800-plus OPS, likely in the second half. (Many reasons why: the injury this year, coming into his physical prime, his attitude, et al.)

That alone would quell doubts about his injury and his likely performance in the future... adding tons to his perceived value. 

And I believe you could trade him over the offseason, versus waiting till the trade deadline. 

That would allow you to reestablish his baseline value, AND his new team would be getting a full season.

All that said, if another team blew us away with an offer now, I'd jump on it. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

So let me see if I got this straight. 

1) Schoop had an all-star, breakout year last season, heading into his prime... OPSing at .840, which would rank him fourth (OPS-wise) among all qualifying second basemen today.

2) This year, he stunk up the first half, and some peripherals look questionable, suggesting a possible long-term reversion to around .740 OPS, which would rank him 14th among 22 qualifying second basemen as of today

So you're assuming a couple conditions when you say he'd likely draw more return now, versus after the season or next season. 

A) Schoop's current perceived value is likely a .740-ish OPS player, his lifetime average OPS, which would rank him in the bottom half of all qualifying second basemen right now, according to MLB.

B) That Schoop's REAL long-term value may be a .740 OPS player, thus the calculus moves to controllability, and that alone (because we can assume his offensive performance will be mediocre, so trade partners would prefer more of that than less)

The second point is where we depart, and strongly. I believe Schoop will return to an .800-plus OPS, likely in the second half. (Many reasons why: the injury this year, coming into his physical prime, his attitude, et al.)

That alone would quell doubts about his injury and his likely performance in the future... adding tons to his perceived value. 

And I believe you could trade him over the offseason, versus waiting till the trade deadline. 

That would allow you to reestablish his baseline value, AND his new team would be getting a full season.

All that said, if another team blew us away with an offer now, I'd jump on it. 

I did say, “perhaps bumped up a bit to discount his rookie season.”   Take that year away and he’s at .776 since then.    That would put him 10th this year among qualified 2B.    And I think that’s about where I’d guess he belongs.    But there’s a lot of uncertainty.   

By the way, to me it’s somewhat misleading to rank him among “qualified” 2B.    When you say he’d be “14th among 22 qualified 2B,” it sort of implies he’d be considered below average.   But the ones who aren’t qualified almost by definition aren’t good enough to start every day, and Schoop is better than all of those.  

 

[Bradysburns]

On 7/24/2018 at 10:56 AM, Frobby said:

I did say, “perhaps bumped up a bit to discount his rookie season.”   Take that year away and he’s at .776 since then.    That would put him 10th this year among qualified 2B.    And I think that’s about where I’d guess he belongs.    But there’s a lot of uncertainty.   

By the way, to me it’s somewhat misleading to rank him among “qualified” 2B.    When you say he’d be “14th among 22 qualified 2B,” it sort of implies he’d be considered below average.   But the ones who aren’t qualified almost by definition aren’t good enough to start every day, and Schoop is better than all of those.  

 

I'd guess you were accurate with the current perceived value (roughly 10th of the 22 qualifiers), for what it's worth. 

On the bolded part, also agreed. I thought that was a slightly hazy delineation, too. It looks like that's just how MLB.com reports the rankings, in particular. 

Appreciate the back-and-forth (with you and Can, as well). Enlightening stuff.