What are the chances of another July deadline trade?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

Yes.   Some posters have mentioned Brach and Jones being moved in August, when they'll have to go through waivers.   No way Schoop or Gausman make it through waivers.

It could happen, and it has in the past, everybody thinks somebody else will claim.

But, you are correct, odds will be that it doesn't happen.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Based on what?

His FIP is better, and you know how bad the O's defense has been, so using FIP seems at least reasonable.

I was looking at his stats before his last two bad outings like I mentioned before, when Brach had a 98 ERA+ and a 116 FIP+

[Tx Oriole]

15 hours ago, Diehard_O's_Fan said:

Attention all insiders or people in the know. What are the chances of the Orioles pulling off another July deadline trade? Does anyone even want Brad Brach? I would trade him for almost nothing. Will the front office surprise us by trading a guy like Schoop or Gausman? Will the Orioles seriously trade Mr. Oriole aka Adam Jones? I personally hope the Orioles can make atleast two or three more trades but won't be getting my hopes up.

I think it's a very low chance. 

[Il BuonO]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

His FIP is better, and you know how bad the O's defense has been, so using FIP seems at least reasonable.

I was looking at his stats before his last two bad outings like I mentioned before, when Brach had a 98 ERA+ and a 116 FIP+

I like FIP, but it’s use around here is pretty selective. For instance, almost everyone cites the Arrieta the year he was traded as being awful based on ERA (7.23). But there were indications (including FIP 4.61) that he was better than that.

I may go along with you regarding Brach, but Hamels 0.8 rWAR, 99 ERA+ and 1.37 WHIP looks more appealing than Brach’s 0.0 rWAR, 86 ERA+ (awful for a reliever), and 1.77 WHIP.

But I wouldn’t trade for Hamels either.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

I like FIP, but it’s use around here is pretty selective. For instance, almost everyone cites the Arrieta the year he was traded as being awful based on ERA (7.23). But there were indications (including FIP 4.61) that he was better than that.

I may go along with you regarding Brach, but Hamels 0.8 rWAR, 99 ERA+ and 1.37 WHIP looks more appealing than Brach’s 0.0 rWAR, 86 ERA+ (awful for a reliever), and 1.77 WHIP.

But I wouldn’t trade for Hamels either.

Yeah, I was mistaken in the Brach/Hamels comparison, I was looking at it before his last two poor outings and should have checked again before posting that.

I'm not really big on WHIP as a metric. Hits/9 is very fickle. 

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, I was mistaken in the Brach/Hamels comparison, I was looking at it before his last two poor outings and should have checked again before posting that.

I'm not really big on WHIP as a metric. Hits/9 is very fickle. 

I was really hoping to get you to break ranks on Arrieta.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

I was really hoping to get you to break ranks on Arrieta.

I didn't post here then, so my thoughts on Arrieta aren't provable and I'm sure hindsight has tilted my memory of them somewhat. I did think Arrieta had excellent stuff and was better than the ERA, but I was frustrated with his lack of progress, despite getting a sizable MLB leash.

[Smilin' Joe Fission]

New poster here.  I've been lurking for a while, especially over the last month with all the buzz.  Just wanted to say I've enjoyed the insight and activity on here and have gotten some good laughs.

As to the question, I think we'll see at least one more move (probably Brach or Danny) before Tuesday is over.  I agree that Jones will likely be moved at some point, maybe before the Aug. 31 deadline.  Though, I have to say I'll be torn on that one.  The return could be decent for him, but he's been my favorite ever since he came up and made his distaste for the Yankees and Red Sox known.  Also his love for the City and attitude in general would severely be missed.

[jamalshw]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Brach, Valencia and Jones all go by the deadline. I think two of those will, though the first two are unlikely to yield anything with any real upside. Jones could net something a bit better, but still, it'll be a relief prospect at Double-A or a low-A prospect with a bit more upside.

I REALLY want them to deal both Gausman and Schoop at the deadline and would love to see them try and move Mark Trumbo in August (eating a good portion of the deal, of course).

[Lucky_13]

Jones and Brach to the Indians makes sense

[OriolesMagic83]

The O's should trade Cashner.  The value of Gausman has to be pretty low right now.  The O's would be lucky to get 1 top 100 prospect for him.  The way Gausman is pitching, would you want him starting a playoff game for your team?

[Finisher]

20 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Jones and Brach to the Indians makes sense

Yeah would pursue this, or Gausman and Brach to Rockies, or just whatever you can get from Cubs.

[Lucky_13]

12 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's should trade Cashner.  The value of Gausman has to be pretty low right now.  The O's would be lucky to get 1 top 100 prospect for him.  The way Gausman is pitching, would you want him starting a playoff game for your team?

Disagree. Sonny Gray got three top top 100 prospects and he and Gausman are very similar pitchers and Gausman has the same amount of control remaining as Gray did last year. He'd bring back a lot especially with the lack of available pitchers this deadline. 

[jamalshw]

19 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

Jones and Brach to the Indians makes sense

 But what would that net? Would Chang be too much?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, jamalshw said:

 But what would that net? Would Chang be too much?

Chang would be too much.

I'd target Eli Morgan/Civale and Capel/Freeman. 2 for 2, might still be too much though.