Chris Davis Trade Possible in 2019-20?

[Il BuonO]

25 minutes ago, Barnaby Graves said:

We could've made the correct decision just by doing the opposite of whatever Jim Bowden says to do, which is almost always the correct thing to do.

Exactly. What GM ever lost his job because he didn’t sign an overpriced FA? Ridiculous.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

For sure it will depress his value, and I also don't think he will be any team's first choice.  But we might be able to find a desperate team that whiffed on the real prizes of the trade deadline.

Just as an exercise, flip the script.  Put yourself in another teams shoes in July, 2019 that's contending for a playoff spot.  You need a first baseman that can hit some bombs.

The Orioles come calling for you to take Chris Davis off their hands.  He's had two terrible seasons but this year his OPS has floated between .850 and .900.  All they're asking for is for you to take part of his contract (we'll say half) and they want two low level prospects back. 

Do you:

Take the Orioles offer, or at least open up a dialogue

or

Continue to scour for guys that could produce an .750-.800 OPS, keep your prospects and your money?

[mdbdotcom]

Chris Davis has played in over 100 games in 8 seasons, including 2018. Among those 8 seasons, he has had exactly 2 seasons in which he "mashed." Those 2 seasons out of 8 are the outliers. They are the seasons on which his contract was based. No matter how well he hits next season (at age 33), no team will expect him to keep it up for the remainder of the contract. 

He's all ours.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just as an exercise, flip the script.  Put yourself in another teams shoes in July, 2019 that's contending for a playoff spot.  You need a first baseman that can hit some bombs.

The Orioles come calling for you to take Chris Davis off their hands.  He's had two terrible seasons but this year his OPS has floated between .850 and .900.  All they're asking for is for you to take part of his contract (we'll say half) and they want two low level prospects back. 

Do you:

Take the Orioles offer, or at least open up a dialogue

or

Continue to scour for guys that could produce an .750-.800 OPS, keep your prospects and your money?

Just trade for Steve Pearce instead.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Just trade for Steve Pearce instead.

I'm not 100% sure whether this is in jest, but Steve Pearce is one of the weirder players to have produced a 5+ win season.  He was basically bad Chris Davis, but without 2 borderline MVP seasons, when he did what he did in 2014.

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just as an exercise, flip the script.  Put yourself in another teams shoes in July, 2019 that's contending for a playoff spot.  You need a first baseman that can hit some bombs.

The Orioles come calling for you to take Chris Davis off their hands.  He's had two terrible seasons but this year his OPS has floated between .850 and .900.  All they're asking for is for you to take part of his contract (we'll say half) and they want two low level prospects back. 

Do you:

Take the Orioles offer, or at least open up a dialogue

or

Continue to scour for guys that could produce an .750-.800 OPS, keep your prospects and your money?

This is tough for me to answer.  If I'm Dan Duquette, who's got a history of finding diamonds in the rough (Pearce, Nate McLouth, I'm sure there's a few others I'm missing here...) I'd probably take my chances on a scrap heap find.  If I'm a GM who's not so good at this, I might take a stab at Davis.  There are a couple of major risks with trying to scour the scrap heap: the scrap heap player might not exist that season; the scrap heap player may underperform, which is especially problematic given that he's already a borderline hitter as a starting 1B; the scrap heap player may sign with a rival.  Given your scenario that the Orioles have offered Davis for those terms, there's some value in having that bird in-hand.

 

edit to add: As I mentioned before, I think that the chance that Davis finds his mojo next season is about 500-to-1, so this exercise is likely moot.  But I suppose it's not impossible.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I'm not 100% sure whether this is in jest, but Steve Pearce is one of the weirder players to have produced a 5+ win season.  He was basically bad Chris Davis, but without 2 borderline MVP seasons, when he did what he did in 2014.

This is tough for me to answer.  If I'm Dan Duquette, who's got a history of finding diamonds in the rough (Pearce, Nate McLouth, I'm sure there's a few others I'm missing here...) I'd probably take my chances on a scrap heap find.  If I'm a GM who's not so good at this, I might take a stab at Davis.  There are a couple of major risks with trying to scour the scrap heap: the scrap heap player might not exist that season; the scrap heap player may underperform, which is especially problematic given that he's already a borderline hitter as a starting 1B; the scrap heap player may sign with a rival.  Given your scenario that the Orioles have offered Davis for those terms, there's some value in having that bird in-hand.

 

edit to add: As I mentioned before, I think that the chance that Davis finds his mojo next season is about 500-to-1, so this exercise is likely moot.  But I suppose it's not impossible.

If Steve Pearce is playing well, I’d definitely prefer him over the risk of Davis.

If the Orioles paid 80% of Davis’ salary and he played better, maybe another team would take that chance.  

[Malike]

The Orioles have to pay Davis until something like 2036 don't they? If he's traded does the team have to pick the deferred money up as well? I think an outright release is more likely than a trade in the future.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

The Orioles have to pay Davis until something like 2036 don't they? If he's traded does the team have to pick the deferred money up as well? I think an outright release is more likely than a trade in the future.

I'm sure the O's could eat the deferred payments if they found a trade partner.

[El Gordo]

 

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure the O's could eat the deferred payments if they found a trade partner.

I honestly don't think that would be possible. The only scenario I can see of having Davis not playing for the O's would be for them bite the bullet and just release him. (I doubt that happens, but I think it's more likely than a trade) 4 more years!

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

I honestly don't think that would be possible. The only scenario I can see of having Davis not playing for the O's would be for them bite the bullet and just release him. (I doubt that happens, but I think it's more likely than a trade) 4 more years!

I don't think they can find a trade partner.

I was just saying that if they could that part of the deal would include the O's paying the deferred monies.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not sure.  He's been hitting this way for well over a year now.  I can't see any team taking him no matter how much contract we eat, AAAAND giving us prospects because he's hits so poorly for so long that anything he does that's positive is almost an outlier.

 

Honestly, I’ll worry about this scenario if and when it happens.   It’s quite unlikely to occur.   

[Ohfan67]

I’m amazed at the Davis trade speculation. It will take a MIRACLE for Davis to become productive again. He seems more toasted than the bagel I just ate. 

[El Gordo]

4 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I’m amazed at the Davis trade speculation. It will take a MIRACLE for Davis to become productive again. He seems more toasted than the bagel I just ate. 

[El Gordo]