Speed

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't get the relevance of your comments.

I stated that stealing bases increase the chances of a player being injured.

You agreed and then you lost me.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed you were implying that players shouldn't steal because they might get hurt or that it should be a detriment to doing so. If that is what you're saying, that implied meaning is what I was replying with in mind. Is that not correct?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed you were implying that players shouldn't steal because they might get hurt or that it should be a detriment to doing so. If that is what you're saying, that implied meaning is what I was replying with in mind. Is that not correct?

While I do believe that players should refrain from stealing except in high leverage situations the point I was making is that players who rely on stolen bases have an increased injury risk compared to players who don't.  That should be a factored in when discussing building around speed.

[weams]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I do believe that players should refrain from stealing except in high leverage situations the point I was making is that players who rely on stolen bases have an increased injury risk compared to players who don't.  That should be a factored in when discussing building around speed.

Exactly. Mike Trout as an example.

[Sessh]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I do believe that players should refrain from stealing except in high leverage situations the point I was making is that players who rely on stolen bases have an increased injury risk compared to players who don't.  That should be a factored in when discussing building around speed.

I've never thought about this much, but perhaps you have and can give some insight. Are oblique injuries more prevalent among players who rely predominantly on power? My thinking is swinging harder might put hitters more at risk for oblique injuries, but I don't know there's any truth in that at all as it just popped into my mind. It also seems that many of those SB related injuries are to the hand from sliding face first. That's a technique/preference thing and it's probably much safer to slide feet first, but I understand how head first is preferred just because you can grab the base with your hand. Really, sliding into a base is pretty hazardous no matter what the circumstances are or how you do it.

I would be happy just having a palatable speed element to our game as I think it's a desirable element for a team to have. I don't want everyone being of the same player type with the idea being each player brings something to the table that others don't have as opposed to everyone bringing the same thing to the table which produces a team that lacks versatility. I think steals/speed should be a part of the deal, a cog, but not the whole machine. So, personally, I'm not sure I would say "build around", but I would want the machine to have that element both for my outfield and as an option to manufacture runs on the bases.

[Can_of_corn]

No idea on the oblique question.

Doesn't seem to make a difference with pitchers that I've noticed.

[Sessh]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

No idea on the oblique question.

Doesn't seem to make a difference with pitchers that I've noticed.

Indeed. Any twisting motion of the trunk engages the obliques. Putting a high amount of force behind those movements would increase the risk of injury. Of course, pitchers repeatedly go full force with those twisting motions with every pitch. Hitters use a lot of force in those movements as well especially when they are trying to hit for power with every swing. Theoretically, it seems like such a correlation would exist, but I have no idea. I'd be interested to know.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Sessh said:

That's a fair point, but I'm not sure that I would count it against them for not being able to stay healthy since it's not necessarily something in your control past a certain degree. I agree about Hammonds as well.

Well I think if you are going to go the "draft an athlete" route, you've gotta have the absolute BEST in player development..  You've gotta have coaches and systems that can refine the raw talent and skills.  And you've gotta also teach them the game from the neck up, too.  And we all know the Orioles haven't had that in a very long time.  I understand where you're coming from that those names are in the past but...the Orioles failure to scout, draft and develop players over the years has always been consistent.  I will always argue that Manny was too special of a talent for the Orioles to screw up.

Now with Elias at the helm, that could change.  

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Sessh said:

I don't want to keep beating this horse as we'll all agree to disagree. Again, I am basically referring to players who can steal successfully at an adequate rate and not all players who steal bases or can steal bases. There is obviously a balance to strike there, so we're not in disagreement there.

The rub is when i think about what the difference is between a player who reaches second with a double and a player that reaches second through a steal. Once that runner is on second base, what's the difference? What does it matter how they got there? The only thing that matters to me is that he's there and once he's there, the "how" is irrelevant. The only responsibility the runner has at that point is not getting picked off or getting thrown out trying to steal third. The rest of the responsibility for scoring that run is on the bats that come up after this.

That's why these stats, to me, are doing more to confuse a very simple aspect than anything else. If Joey Rickard is on second base and Chris Davis is at the plate, what does it matter how Rickard got to second? It's all the same thing once he's there and it comes down to RISP production from the rest of the offense. I fail to understand what significance such a stat would hold that tries to differentiate between a runner that reached second base VIA a double and one that reached VIA a steal. Once the runner is on second, what's the difference? The bottom line is a player got himself in scoring position. How he got there will not affect whether or not Chris Davis strikes out and these stats you're throwing at me attempt to assign meaning to something that has no meaning. A stolen base is a cog in the run scoring machine. It is one of many means to get yourself into scoring position to make it easier for your teammates to drive you in. The more means a team is able to assimilate into their strategy to generate scoring chances, the better. If those scoring chances don't pan out, it does not mean that the means used to get those scoring chances is negligible.

Anyway, I said all I wanted to pretty much. We'll just agree to disagree, but I think it's a flawed statistic that produces misleading data.

I’m not even sure what you think we disagree about.   Nobody’s arguing that a single and a stolen base aren’t as valuable as a double (at least, with the bases empty).    We’re simply saying that when crediting a player with the value of his stolen bases, you also have to deduct the loss of value from the times he was caught stealing.    Do you disagree with that?   

[weams]

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

 

They are gearing up for a rematch with the O's for the #1 pick.

[weams]

 

[weams]

 

[Hallas]

I think that steals (at a high percentage) are overvalued by traditionalists and undervalued by analytics guys.  

On 12/9/2018 at 3:55 PM, Can_of_corn said:

While I do believe that players should refrain from stealing except in high leverage situations the point I was making is that players who rely on stolen bases have an increased injury risk compared to players who don't.  That should be a factored in when discussing building around speed.

Is there any study that shows this?  I know that it makes sense intuitively, but I took a quick cursory look at the top 6 players in baserunning runs, and they do not seem to be significantly more injury prone than the rest of MLB. Between 2016-2018, I believe Billy Hamilton, Trea Turner, and Eddie Rosario missed some time, but it wasn't a full season for any of them, and it didn't seem to significantly slow them down.  The other three (Jose Ramirez, Brett Gardner, Whit Merrifield) played full seasons, whether in the minors or in the big club.  I'm counting 15 injury-free seasons out of 18 player-seasons during that span. (My definition of a complete season is 140+ games.  I didn't look to see if any players went to the DL for very short stints.)