The Victor Victor Mesa/Sandy Gaston thread

[NCRaven]

The $6mil or so to sign VVM is a signing bonus and should be seen as spread over the time that he spends in the Orioles sytem until such time as he becomes a free agent, is signed to a long-term extension, or is traded.  So it really is a minimal expense, especially when compared to the old system.  Also, even if VVM isn't with the Orioles in 5 years, that may well be because he was traded and we will have received prospects in his place.

Having said that, this piece from Fangraphs shows at least one reason that Peter Angelos avoided the Latin American amateur market for so long:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-might-be-in-actual-legal-trouble/

 

[eddie83]

If these players have confidence in themselves and have any kind of career in the majors how much will they save playing in Florida as opposed to Maryland? 

If the Marlins get VVW it isn’t so he can rot in the minors.  

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Malike said:

Even if it's wasted on a bad team? I mean, there are 164 pages in this thread. One would have you believe that the future of the organization hinges entirely on this signing. Looks to be some talent being held back in Mexico that might be opened before the trade deadline in July and of course, I'm sure Asia will have some talent that will end up state side. Clearly, the Mesa brothers are waiting for Miami to get as much money as they can, because they prefer to play there. Not the end of the world.  There should be other talent to spend the money on.

He's probably going to spend 2019 in the minors.  Assuming the O's don't play service time games that gives the O's until 2025 to produce a winning team for him to play on.  They can also trade him at any point during the process.  If he's a 1.5-2 win guy than flip him after his arb one season and you will get back more than 6M in value.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

If these players have confidence in themselves and have any kind of career in the majors how much will they save playing in Florida as opposed to Maryland? 

If the Marlins get VVW it isn’t so he can rot in the minors.  

VVM should be ready by 2020.  Junior and Garcon won't be.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

I realize that on a competitive team yes. What good is a 1.5-2 win player when your team is likely to be the worst in baseball during his tenure? I'd rather they sign high ceiling kids who aren't ML ready, that way you can develop a bed of talent that is ready to compete together. I didn't call anyone a moron, sorry for triggering you. I will now put a trigger warning before I say anything that might offend the masses. I would argue that your logic of they must have him, while he basically contributes on a losing team is as bad a logic.

There are not a lot of guys that project to be 3+ win players.

[Malike]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He's probably going to spend 2019 in the minors.  Assuming the O's don't play service time games that gives the O's until 2025 to produce a winning team for him to play on.  They can also trade him at any point during the process.  If he's a 1.5-2 win guy than flip him after his arb one season and you will get back more than 6M in value.

The way the organization is run, I wouldn't assume anything. 2025 seems optimistic. I'm not saying there isn't value in Mesa, I'm saying what appears to be happening (Mesa is waiting for Miami to get enough money) isn't the end of the world or an indictment of the Orioles. If they had the extra 750k, then they would just keep waiting until Miami got enough money. It's pretty clear from Dad's statements, he wants his boys there and kids tend to want to please their parents.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

There are not a lot of guys that project to be 3+ win players.

Of course there aren't. Who knows. Mesa might be a replacement level player. Still not a bad signing. No matter how many people gnash their teeth here about what is happening, it doesn't appear to be changing. If they wanted the most money, they could have already taken it. It should be clear to the rational, they want to play in Miami and are giving them every opportunity to get equal money and that appears to be the case. At some point, it becomes an overpay. Should O's trade for 2M more and offer him 8?

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

VVM should be ready by 2020.  Junior and Garcon won't be.

VVM is the key to all of this. 

Apparently the brothers are tied together anyway. 

My point remains. The extra money the Orioles can offer which still would be taxed is not that substantial in the grand scheme of things. If VVM let’s say makes $6M in his career once he gets to the majors -if I understand correctly- he saves $345,000 by playing in Miami instead of Baltimore. 

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

I realize that on a competitive team yes. What good is a 1.5-2 win player when your team is likely to be the worst in baseball during his tenure? I'd rather they sign high ceiling kids who aren't ML ready, that way you can develop a bed of talent that is ready to compete together. I didn't call anyone a moron, sorry for triggering you. I will now put a trigger warning before I say anything that might offend the masses. I would argue that your logic of they must have him, while he basically contributes on a losing team is as bad a logic.

No one is triggered, you're just speaking condescendingly about something you have no idea what you're talking about. He wouldn't play in 2019 so we're talking 2020 at the earliest and then you have an ample time frame to field a competitive team while paying VVM well below his value. If you can't field a competitive team you trade him. This is all really self explanatory. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Malike said:

Of course there aren't. Who knows. Mesa might be a replacement level player. Still not a bad signing. No matter how many people gnash their teeth here about what is happening, it doesn't appear to be changing. If they wanted the most money, they could have already taken it. It should be clear to the rational, they want to play in Miami and are giving them every opportunity to get equal money and that appears to be the case. At some point, it becomes an overpay. Should O's trade for 2M more and offer him 8?

If you think he's a 1.5-2 win player then yes, you offer him 8.  If you are right he'll be producing 12-17M in value annually.  Of course you pay 8M for that.

Under the old rules the Dodgers spent 15.5M on Diaz (moved in the Machado trade).  I don't think he was projected to be a 3+ win player.

(Pretty sure the Dodgers also took a big tax hit for Diaz)

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

No one is triggered, you're just speaking condescendingly about something you have no idea what you're talking about. He wouldn't play in 2019 so we're talking 2020 at the earliest and then you have an ample time frame to field a competitive team while paying VVM well below his value. If you can't field a competitive team you trade him. This is all really self explanatory. 

So basically, sign him and when the team isn't good trade him? Sounds like we'll be getting a lot of value out of that signing. You are assuming 2020 at the earliest, you don't know that and I'm not being condescending. I'm being rational and not ledge jumping about what is going to happen here. You can slam the O's for tons of things, I have a hard time slamming them when it's clear that Mesa wants to be in Miami and is giving them every opportunity to get it done, and they will. There will be other talents to sign before July of 2019. If the O's had 8M in pool money I believe we'd be in the same position. Waiting for Miami to get enough money. I know exactly what I'm talking about, don't blame me for you being unable to comprehend something simple.

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Malike said:

So basically, sign him and when the team isn't good trade him? Sounds like we'll be getting a lot of value out of that signing. You are assuming 2020 at the earliest, you don't know that and I'm not being condescending. I'm being rational and not ledge jumping about what is going to happen here. You can slam the O's for tons of things, I have a hard time slamming them when it's clear that Mesa wants to be in Miami and is giving them every opportunity to get it done, and they will. There will be other talents to sign before July of 2019. If the O's had 8M in pool money I believe we'd be in the same positing. Waiting for Miami to get enough money. I know exactly what I'm talking about, don't blame me for you being unable to comprehend something simple.

 

Miami has spent too much money to match the O's if the O's reached their capped amount.

So the Mesa brothers would be waiting until July.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you think he's a 1.5-2 win player then yes, you offer him 8.  If you are right he'll be producing 12-17M in value annually.  Of course you pay 8M for that.

Under the old rules the Dodgers spent 15.5M on Diaz (moved in the Machado trade).  I don't think he was projected to be a 3+ win player.

(Pretty sure the Dodgers also took a big tax hit for Diaz)

Again, if the O's had 8 we'd be in the same holding pattern waiting for Miami to get pool money.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Malike said:

Again, if the O's had 8 we'd be in the same holding pattern waiting for Miami to get pool money.

Look up.

[Malike]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Miami has spent too much money to match the O's if the O's reached their capped amount.

So the Mesa brothers would be waiting until July.

Miami can spend whatever they want. They'd just take a penalty no? If they can trade for 20M in slot space they could couldn't they?