Where would Richie Martin fit on the O's top 30?

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

MArtin Cervenka is the catcher I was discussing. In the incorrect place. 

Haha, I kinda figured that! 

[Luke-OH]

The thing with Richie Martin is that his type of player is extremely rare at the MLB level. By that, I mean players who can’t lift the ball. 

Sure, there are a handful, Duffy, Hosmer, and a couple more. But they all have elite ability to barrel the baseball, something Martin hasn’t shown even in this his best year. They make more contact and better contact than he does, maybe Martin can improve those qualities against MLB pitching, but I’d bet against it.

Also, @wildcard, I didn’t say I had Grenier ahead of Martin, just that they are similar. 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

 

Also, @wildcard, I didn’t say I had Grenier ahead of Martin, just that they are similar. 

If you had a choice to have either in your organization,  with no rule 5 requirements. For the same money.  Who would you chose? 

[Luke-OH]

30 minutes ago, weams said:

If you had a choice to have either in your organization,  with no rule 5 requirements. For the same money.  Who would you chose? 

It would depend on the team, Grenier has more ceiling, as he is already stronger than Martin is now and has shown the ability to change his swing to get the ball in the air. But we don’t know if he’ll be able to make enough contact for a guy with limited power.

Martin is closer to the majors, and is more likely to hit for average, but there is no reason to project any power in the majors, so the upside is limited.

If it’s a rebuilding team like the O’s, I’d go Grenier, if it’s a competitive team, I’d go Martin.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

The thing with Richie Martin is that his type of player is extremely rare at the MLB level. By that, I mean players who can’t lift the ball. 

Sure, there are a handful, Duffy, Hosmer, and a couple more. But they all have elite ability to barrel the baseball, something Martin hasn’t shown even in this his best year. They make more contact and better contact than he does, maybe Martin can improve those qualities against MLB pitching, but I’d bet against it.

Also, @wildcard, I didn’t say I had Grenier ahead of Martin, just that they are similar. 

Good call. At 2.10 GO/AO he is a pretty extreme groundball guy. Unless he's a plus-plus runner that will be tough to maintain.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

The thing with Richie Martin is that his type of player is extremely rare at the MLB level. By that, I mean players who can’t lift the ball. 

Sure, there are a handful, Duffy, Hosmer, and a couple more. But they all have elite ability to barrel the baseball, something Martin hasn’t shown even in this his best year. They make more contact and better contact than he does, maybe Martin can improve those qualities against MLB pitching, but I’d bet against it.

Also, @wildcard, I didn’t say I had Grenier ahead of Martin, just that they are similar. 

I took this to mean you had Grenier ahead on Martin because you rank on ceiling not who is closer the majors.

Quote

He’d be right around Cadyn Grenier  for me. He’s not even remotely close to the Orioles top 10. I like Grenier’s chances to be a starting SS better than Martin, but Martin is closer to the bigs

 

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good call. At 2.10 GO/AO he is a pretty extreme groundball guy. Unless he's a plus-plus runner that will be tough to maintain.

Must have been why they left him unprotected. Fly ball rate is the new Moneyball.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Must have been why they left him unprotected. Fly ball rate is the new Moneyball.

Which is why collecting ground ball pitchers isn't smart.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I took this to mean you had Grenier ahead on Martin because you rank on ceiling not who is closer the majors.

 

I don’t rank on ceiling, I rank on a combination of ceiling/floor and the likelihood of each.

The Orioles Hangout list valued ceiling (not as the only factor, but a strong factor), I contributed to that list, but it isn’t my list. I probably won’t do a fully fleshed out list like I did last year, because of twins, but I’ll post the name order and answer questions at some point.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Good call. At 2.10 GO/AO he is a pretty extreme groundball guy. Unless he's a plus-plus runner that will be tough to maintain.

20% flyball, and 15% non infield flyball, that would be worse than any qualified MLB player in 2018. Watching him hit, it’s pretty obvious he’s not going to lift the ball. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

20% flyball, and 15% non infield flyball, that would be worse than any qualified MLB player in 2018. Watching him hit, it’s pretty obvious he’s not going to lift the ball. 

Sounds like an entire swing rebuild would be needed.

I would think that would have already been attempted at some point in his development.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sounds like an entire swing rebuild would be needed.

I would think that would have already been attempted at some point in his development.

Yep, that’s why I think it’s a utility ceiling, which is solid for the Rule 5 draft but not anything special.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

The thing with Richie Martin is that his type of player is extremely rare at the MLB level. By that, I mean players who can’t lift the ball. 

Sure, there are a handful, Duffy, Hosmer, and a couple more. But they all have elite ability to barrel the baseball, something Martin hasn’t shown even in this his best year. They make more contact and better contact than he does, maybe Martin can improve those qualities against MLB pitching, but I’d bet against it.

Also, @wildcard, I didn’t say I had Grenier ahead of Martin, just that they are similar. 

Luke, you realize what this means don't you?

You do some of your best work when you have had no sleep.   If we have a tough problem in the future we just have to get you to stay up all night and hey, you.ve got it.

Nice find Luke.  Thanks.

 

[Aristotelian]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is why collecting ground ball pitchers isn't smart.

How so? Wouldn't you wan't them to neutralize the FB hitters?

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How so? Wouldn't you wan't them to neutralize the FB hitters?

I was going to type out an explanation but this article does it more clearly than I would have.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/as-more-mlb-batters-become-launch-angle-disciples-pitchers-are-quietly-adapting/2018/03/27/ecace82c-2dda-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html

TL:DR - hitters who embrace a positive launch angle swing are good at going down and crushing low sinking fastballs and pitchers are adjusting by throwing more high FBs and curveballs.