Where would Richie Martin fit on the O's top 30?

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Martin (picked 20 overall)) was drafted higher than Grenier (37) barely.    Martin this past year has showed progress with the bat.  Grenier has not done that with wood bats in limited at bats.   They seem pretty close in defense.  Martins bat has to rank higher than Grenier's at this point.

Basically mlb pipeline has ranked  Martin at 12 for the A's.  The A's system is ranked higher than the O's system.  So Martin would be moving to a low ranked system if the O's take him.  Logically he should rank higher than 12 in the O's system under mlb pipeline's methodology of ranking.  Greiner in ranked 9th in the O's system according to mlb pipeline.   Martin should rank slightly higher in the O's system  than Griener at this point because of the progress he has shown with the bat.  That is why I said 7 for Martin.

That is not necessary true in Tony/Luke system.  Pipeline and the Tony/Luke use different methodologies to rank prospects.

MLB pipeline has him as a “50” overall. That would rank him #3-13 in our system. They have Grenier 9. 

 

[wildcard]

55 minutes ago, bobmc said:

Have any non Oriole sites praised the abilities and "ready for stardom certainties" of Martin Cervenka this year?  

Not that I have seen.

[Frobby]

As I said, prospect rankings can vary widely.    As Tony pointed out, if mlb.com were the gospel, the A’s wouldn’t have protected Sky Bolt, who was ranked far below Martin on mlb.com.   

Mike Elias has a reputation as an independent thinker when it comes to talent evaluation.    I doubt he cares at all where any of the available players were ranked by mlb.com.    He’ll have his own opinions as to who is the BPA, and will act accordingly.    It’s anyone’s guess who he’ll choose.   FWIW, the Astros chose Josh Fields in their first Rule 5 draft under Elias, and he’s been a useful if unspectacular reliever who’s still in the majors 5 years later (3.71 career ERA).

[wildcard]

What is pretty clear to me is there is a large difference of opinions on Martin.    Pipeline would probably have him in the O;s top10 ahead of Grenier who is 9.  Mostly because him bat  got a lot better at AA and this defense they consider ML ready.

Tony say 16th.

Luke does not like him as well a Grenier to in ranked 23 on the Tony/Luke list.

He is rated any where between a 35 and 50 based on evaluation of his abilities.   

That makes it pretty hard to tell if the O's should take him on not.  IMO we just have to wait to see what Elias does.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO we just have to wait to see what Elias does.

That’s not even an opinion, that’s a fact.    Besides, let’s assume Elias likes Martin just as well as mlb.com does.     There still might be someone he likes even better.    

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s not even an opinion, that’s a fact.    Besides, let’s assume Elias likes Martin just as well as mlb.com does.     There still might be someone he likes even better.    

True.  We don't know what Elias will do.

I will say this on Martin.   He is describe as a glove first SS.  He was drafted in the first round #20 based on his glove out of U of Florida.    In  2017 he put up a 981 fielding percentage which is very good.   But he fell back in 2018 in fielding percentage.  He didn't  hit well through his first  3 years.   But last year he did hit well at AA.  300/368/439/807.    He played the last two years at AA and has showed something very good with both his offense and defense but not in the same year.  

I think his medicals probably tell a tale.  He has had two knee surgeries in three years.  But he performed well in 2018 with the bat after his last knee surgery.

If not picked in the Rule 5 draft he should progress to AAA at age 24.

If taken by the O's he would be the most advanced young SS in their system.  Ahead of Grenier in maturity if not in ceiling.

It seems he should be able to help the O's as a defensive SS in 2019.  Whether he is good enough to move Villar off SS, we would have to find out in ST.  He should not be expected to hit much in 2019 since he is jumping from AA.   But he could progress with the bat in his first few years.   He could develop into a good starting SS or he may be just a utility player.

Its clear that the A's and MLB Pipeline do not agree on Martin.  The A's would protect him if they thought is was their 12th best prospect. Instead the A's think they have 40 players on their ML roster that are better.  But they do have three other SS in their Top 30 prospect list and SS Mateo is rated very high in skills.

Bottom line:  We wait to see what Elias thinks.

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s not even an opinion, that’s a fact.   

Unless Elias is a sockpuppet in the Brady Anderson Conspiracy. There are no facts.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As I said, prospect rankings can vary widely.    As Tony pointed out, if mlb.com were the gospel, the A’s wouldn’t have protected Sky Bolt, who was ranked far below Martin on mlb.com.   

Mike Elias has a reputation as an independent thinker when it comes to talent evaluation.    I doubt he cares at all where any of the available players were ranked by mlb.com.    He’ll have his own opinions as to who is the BPA, and will act accordingly.    It’s anyone’s guess who he’ll choose.   FWIW, the Astros chose Josh Fields in their first Rule 5 draft under Elias, and he’s been a useful if unspectacular reliever who’s still in the majors 5 years later (3.71 career ERA).

The truest statement in this whole thread. Using any prospect list as gospel is dangerous. If the thought is where would MLB pipeline put Martin in the Orioles system, then using their rankings would make some sense I guess.

As for Martin, I'll defer to Luke who has actually scouted him a bit and his understanding of the entire field. If he says there are many other better players, then I'd go with that. I really am going off of scouting reports available online and statistical analysis since I haven't watched him play at all.

All I was saying was if he really was a plus defender at SS and the Orioles think he could possibly improve enough with the bat to be an everyday SS, then he has to be considered for that first pick.

[Tony-OH]

By the way, I don't know if Elias does this or not, but I would have assistants/scouts who's job it would be to know the system inside and out of every other team. If I were him, I'd want access and situational updates to big movers, potential under the radar guys, and so forth available to me at all times. Basically, have full situational awareness of the talent outside of your system which makes trades and FA signings much easier.

 

[weams]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

MLB pipeline has him as a “50” overall. That would rank him #3-13 in our system. They have Grenier 9. 

 

Pipeline uses name buzz alone. There are no scouts there. 

[weams]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The truest statement in this whole thread. Using any prospect list as gospel is dangerous. If the thought is where would MLB pipeline put Martin in the Orioles system, then using their rankings would make some sense I guess.

As for Martin, I'll defer to Luke who has actually scouted him a bit and his understanding of the entire field. If he says there are many other better players, then I'd go with that. I really am going off of scouting reports available online and statistical analysis since I haven't watched him play at all.

All I was saying was if he really was a plus defender at SS and the Orioles think he could possibly improve enough with the bat to be an everyday SS, then he has to be considered for that first pick.

Denise and I watched Martin a ton, he had a hot bat towards the end of the season and caught reasonable well for a minor leaguer. We have both watched several catchers fill that slot and Wynns was certainly better. As were Wieters and Joseph.  Pena was excellent. Perez very good. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Pipeline uses name buzz alone. There are no scouts there. 

They have Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo out front, and Lord knows who behind the scenes.   But I don’t know that I’d say they go by buzz alone.    Who knows what they do?

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

They have Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo out front, and Lord knows who behind the scenes.   But I don’t know that I’d say they go by buzz alone.    Who knows what they do?

I assumed they had an intern or two. Possibly not. I consider them both to be personalities at this juncture. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Denise and I watched Martin a ton, he had a hot bat towards the end of the season and caught reasonable well for a minor leaguer. We have both watched several catchers fill that slot and Wynns was certainly better. As were Wieters and Joseph.  Pena was excellent. Perez very good. 

We are mixing Martin's.  Martin Cervenka and Richie Martin.

[weams]

39 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We are mixing Martin's.  Martin Cervenka and Richie Martin.

MArtin Cervenka is the catcher I was discussing. In the incorrect place.