Mancini is an average defensive left fielder according to UZR

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As someone once said, “it depends what your definition of ‘is’ is.”     

I am going by what UZR says is average.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am going by was UZR says is average.

You can’t say Mancini “is” an average LF in my opinion.   You can predict that he will be.    I can understand your rationale for that prediction, I simply disagree with it.   

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

You can’t say Mancini “is” an average LF in my opinion.   You can predict that he will be.    I can understand your rationale for that prediction, I simply disagree with it.   

You have a point that it is projecting what his next year's UZR will be.  But without injury he probably has the range he had in 2017 right now.  And he probably has the arm he had last year right now.   So "is"  is talking about what  his abilities are now.  Not his past combined numbers that included learning on the job and an injury.

What I think is probably true is that "average" is not good enough for most posters here.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You have a point that it is projecting what his next year's UZR will be.  But without injury he probably has the range he had in 2017 right now.  And he probably has the arm he had last year right now.   So "is"  is talking about his abilities are now.  Not his past combined numbers that included learning of the job and an injury.

What I think is probably true is that "average" is not good enough for most posters here.

With the roster set up he will be the LF. He could be adequate short term.

He isn’t going to become more athletic with age and isn’t blessed with speed right now. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, pastorfan said:

I'n not sure Elias will allow him to play OF. He might move him to 1B. Maybe he slowly implements things and allows him for this year, I'm not sure.

I don't think Elias will be filling out any lineup cards.  

[Just Regular]

Here's another input 'I consider alongside the defensive metrics.

Minor league games by position: 458 at 1B, 0 at OF.  If the scouts and org thought he had a modicum of natural talent for OF, I imagine they would have tried to develop it.  That the results have been what they've been is probably about what you'd expect making a non-outfielder play the position.

Great job by Mancini to have hit his way to the majors, and frankly I'm curious to see if he can find an extra half gear hitting once he moves past having to try and survive in LF on a regular basis.  A poor man's version of Eric Karros's career is probably his best case outcome if the hopeless LF attempt has indeed taxed his hitting a bit.

Earl in Weaver on Strategy talked about using guys for what they're good at, and shielding them from what they aren't.  That's not been what Mancini's experienced up here.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

With the roster set up he will be the LF. He could be adequate short term.

He isn’t going to become more athletic with age and isn’t blessed with speed right now. 

Hopefully the O's future outfield is LF - Diaz, CF - Mullins/McKenna,  RF - Hays  IMO.

[now]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Hopefully the O's future outfield is LF - Diaz, CF - Mullins/McKenna,  RF - Hays  IMO.

Producing, that is! And not just another Gibbons - Matos - Bigbie.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, now said:

Producing, that is! And not just another Gibbons - Matos - Bigbie.

I think this is a significantly better group.    But, we’ll see.   

[Spy Fox]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

Statcast has him at -10 Outs Above Average in 2018. That was 81st out of 87th qualified outfielders. Catch probability numbers may not be perfect but I'm curious to hear a critique of them that could excuse Mancini all the way up to average. 

[Satyr3206]

People on the Hangout don't want average. They want Flash Gordon with a Cannon arm and an internal homing beacon. I'd love to see what the stats would do with that combo.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

Statcast has him at -10 Outs Above Average in 2018. That was 81st out of 87th qualified outfielders. Catch probability numbers may not be perfect but I'm curious to hear a critique of them that could excuse Mancini all the way up to average. 

And -5 in 2017 (72nd of 91), which cuts against wildcard’s theory that Mancini has close to average range when healthy.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

And -5 in 2017 (72nd of 91), which cuts against wildcard’s theory that Mancini has close to average range when healthy.

It's not my theory.  Its UZR numbers  from your precious Fangraphs.

[Luke-OH]

 

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Where did I say Mancini was an average left field in 2017 or 2018?    I am projecting that if he is healthy he can put up the range numbers of 2017.   Its below average range but it is offset by his arm if he throws like he did in 2018.

On 12/27/2017 at 8:07 AM, wildcard said:

Mancini is a better defender in LF than  Santander.  Mancini is at least an average defender in left.   Santander defense is rated below average by Orioles.com and  was panned by Baseball America.

 

[weams]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I thought they did.   That’s why I expected his 2018 numbers to improve over 2017, but they didn’t.  

I'll agree there. He made two real good plays at the end of 2017.