Front Page - Taking Inventory

[ScGO's]

Roch discussed in one of his recent posts; adding to the MLB roster is not the club's priority.  There is no need to win at the moment, and if ME is trying to implement "his" system, then adding established, expensive vets who potentially have become comfortable in "their ways" could be counter productive to the culture he's trying to create.  A coaching staff can provide veteran leadership.  There's like 10 coaches with the team at a time.   I also don't think he's trying to spend any big money on the club.  If he signs anyone, I think it will be for less than 5 mil or milb deals for bargain basement prices.  

I think he's trying to see what he's already got in the system and he's currently trying to figure out everything's potential value and how it should be used because through the, lets say, next 3 seasons he's going to add 200+ ball players through the drafts, trades, intl signs, etc.  Those will be "his guys" and he's trying to figure out what he inherited from DD and how it compares to the players he likes.  This may lead to some prospect for prospect trades too.  

Trumbo, Cashner, Cobb, Givens, Villar, Bundy, and even Davis could all be gone after this season. He's cleaning house and trying to keep his spending down so they can sign young talent, hire scouts, etc.  

I figured with the rumored 5 year contract, he's probably most interested in the players who have 5+ years of control.  Those are the players that he is probably most interested in assessing and understanding their value as they could potentially be here as he moves out of the rebuild.  If he doesn't see that player contributing to the team's goals in 2021 and beyond, he's going to shed them from the system one way or another.  I am most interested to see which players he covets in this 5+ years of control group.  

Below is a database of the top 101 players(with some honorable mentions) with 5+ years of control in our system (in my opinion of course) that I believe ME has probably targeted for assessment and the reasons why.  I tried to rank them in an order ME would value the player.  Its a good scope of who and where our system's talent is.

Based on his trends in Houston, which of these players do you see ME valuing most?  Which ones will he believe are overrated and may look to move to other teams?  Which players may his analytics approach best support?

[ScGO's]

1 minute ago, ScGO's said:

Roch discussed in one of his recent posts; adding to the MLB roster is not the club's priority.  There is no need to win at the moment, and if ME is trying to implement "his" system, then adding established, expensive vets who potentially have become comfortable in "their ways" could be counter productive to the culture he's trying to create.  A coaching staff can provide veteran leadership.  There's like 10 coaches with the team at a time.   I also don't think he's trying to spend any big money on the club.  If he signs anyone, I think it will be for less than 5 mil or milb deals for bargain basement prices.  

I think he's trying to see what he's already got in the system and he's currently trying to figure out everything's potential value and how it should be used because through the, lets say, next 3 seasons he's going to add 200+ ball players through the drafts, trades, intl signs, etc.  Those will be "his guys" and he's trying to figure out what he inherited from DD and how it compares to the players he likes.  This may lead to some prospect for prospect trades too.  

Trumbo, Cashner, Cobb, Givens, Villar, Bundy, and even Davis could all be gone after this season. He's cleaning house and trying to keep his spending down so they can sign young talent, hire scouts, etc.  

I figured with the rumored 5 year contract, he's probably most interested in the players who have 5+ years of control.  Those are the players that he is probably most interested in assessing and understanding their value as they could potentially be here as he moves out of the rebuild.  If he doesn't see that player contributing to the team's goals in 2021 and beyond, he's going to shed them from the system one way or another.  I am most interested to see which players he covets in this 5+ years of control group.  

Below is a database of the top 101 players(with some honorable mentions) with 5+ years of control in our system (in my opinion of course) that I believe ME has probably targeted for assessment and the reasons why.  I tried to rank them in an order ME would value the player.  Its a good scope of who and where our system's talent is.

 

Based on his trends in Houston, which of these players do you see ME valuing most?  Which ones will he believe are overrated and may look to move to other teams?  Which players may his analytics approach best support?

Orioles Controllable Depth

 

Sorry , it didn't attach the first time

[weams]

Front Page HHP

[wildcard]

Nice post.  Looks like you did a lot of work on this.   It deserves a few comments in return.

1) I know your criteria is at least 5 years of service and that is fine but I have to think that Miguel Castro with 4 years of service remaining will be as big a part of the rebuild as many on the players on the list.

2) If Hays plays well in the first half I see no reason for him to spend the 2nd half in the minors.

3) Same goes for Akin.  If he pitches well in the 1st half at AAA I think he will be in the majors after the July trades.

4)  I don't think you are giving Hess his due at #31.   His 2nd half of a 3.81 ERA, 10 starts, more innings pitched than hits and a 1.25 WHIP.   IMO he enters 2019 with a rotation spot.  Its his to lose.

[ThomasTomasz]

It is going to be how the Cubs and Astros built things, a big focus on hitters.  Hitters play just about every day, the risk for big injuries is a lot less and in some circles, carry more value early on.  This is exactly what the Astros did.  They build around Altuve, Bregman, Correa and Springer.  Their big starting pitchers, aside from McCullers and Keuchel (who was a previous regime player) came via trade or the FA market- Verlander, Cole, Morton and Giles.

The Cubs, meanwhile, did the same thing.  They built around Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Russell, Schwarber and Contreras.  When they were ready to compete, they signed Jon Lester to a big time FA contract, along with John Lackey, also acquiring Jake Arrieta as a reclamation project.  

Simply put, they focused on assets who could build value without the risk of starting pitchers.  Granted, each team did grow some of their own starters.  I mentioned McCullers and Keuchel, and the Cubs also had Hendricks.  The Astros used payroll and prospects to get the pitchers they needed, guys with clear bills of health who met their analytic numbers.  It seems that is the best way to build the team from the ground up. 

[El_Duderino]

Re the OP, I don’t think prospect for prospect trades are all that common. Good list, I’m betting most of those top guys stay with the orioles at this point. FWIW,  I like Mountcastle better than the two guys ahead of him.

[atomic]

I think "ME" is a terrible way to refer to Elias.  

[weams]

24 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think "ME" is a terrible way to refer to Elias.  

I call him Mike Elias myself. 

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Nice post.  Looks like you did a lot of work on this.   It deserves a few comments in return.

1) I know your criteria is at least 5 years of service and that is fine but I have to think that Miguel Castro with 4 years of service remaining will be as big a part of the rebuild as many on the players on the list.

2) If Hays plays well in the first half I see no reason for him to spend the 2nd half in the minors.

3) Same goes for Akin.  If he pitches well in the 1st half at AAA I think he will be in the majors after the July trades.

4)  I don't think you are giving Hess his due at #31.   His 2nd half of a 3.81 ERA, 10 starts, more innings pitched than hits and a 1.25 WHIP.   IMO he enters 2019 with a rotation spot.  Its his to lose.

Mancini and Mike Wright fall into that 4 years category too.  I could see all three traded if they perform. 

Hess stuck around last year. I guess his lower ranking comes from my being conditioned from all the years of watching middling O's prospects come up and perform fairly well for 50-100 IP before the wheels fell off.  I hope one out of Hess, Ramirez, Yac, Means, Rogers, or Ynoa can develop into a #4-5 starter that can stick. I'm not so sure it will happen though.

[ScGO's]

56 minutes ago, atomic said:

I think "ME" is a terrible way to refer to Elias.  

Are you an anti-initials sort of guy or does the reference to the first person pronoun come off as egotistical?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Mancini and Mike Wright fall into that 4 years category too.  I could see all three traded if they perform. 

Hess stuck around last year. I guess his lower ranking comes from my being conditioned from all the years of watching middling O's prospects come up and perform fairly well for 50-100 IP before the wheels fell off.  I hope one out of Hess, Ramirez, Yac, Means, Rogers, or Ynoa can develop into a #4-5 starter that can stick. I'm not so sure it will happen though.

IMO Castro has a better chance to be with he O's when they are contenders because he just turned 24.   Next season Mancini will play at 27 and Wright at 29.  That puts them in their 30's in three years and  I agree those two are more likely to be traded or in Wright's case DFA'd.

[Aristotelian]

Good post overall but I think some of the rankings are pretty far off. The Astros may have coveted position players but you have to build on what grows, and our strength is the pitchers. You have Hall correctly #1, but Kremer, GrayRod, and Akin are very exciting. Meanwhile, Mullins hasn't proven he can hit, dnd Hays was a massive disappointment. Maybe one of the young internationals pans out, otherwise I think the next core group of position players is probably not in our system yet.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Good post overall but I think some of the rankings are pretty far off. The Astros may have coveted position players but you have to build on what grows, and our strength is the pitchers. You have Hall correctly #1, but Kremer, GrayRod, and Akin are very exciting. Meanwhile, Mullins hasn't proven he can hit, dnd Hays was a massive disappointment. Maybe one of the young internationals pans out, otherwise I think the next core group of position players is probably not in our system yet.

I wouldn’t split too many hairs with the OP’s rankings. It’s a great idea and a great post. This shows a realistic approach that we all just need to grasp, lots of guys just aren’t going to be here when we’re good again. 

2019 is just going to to be a tough year because we’re going to be terrible but at the same time not have a ton of “prospects” on the team. Hopefully our tradable players will have good starts and allow us to acquire more players to add to the AA/A inventory. 

[ScGO's]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

IMO Castro has a better chance to be with he O's when they are contenders because he just turned 24.   Next season Mancini will play at 27 and Wright at 29.  That puts them in their 30's in three years and  I agree those two are more likely to be traded or in Wright's case DFA'd.

Good point.  

[ScGO's]

10 hours ago, El_Duderino said:

Re the OP, I don’t think prospect for prospect trades are all that common. Good list, I’m betting most of those top guys stay with the orioles at this point. FWIW,  I like Mountcastle better than the two guys ahead of him.

I see this working out more as an attachment with a veteran in order to up the return.  

For example, say Trumbo shows he's healthy and is somewhere between .750-850 with some HR pop before the deadline.  We swing him to another team with a prospect that ME is "meh" on but still has some prospect clout (remember all the old O's brass is moving to other positions of influence and could be higher on our prospects than ME is). This player could be a Sisco or a Wells or even a Mountcastle: all guesses, bc I still don't know what ME will covet in our system.  This might help us bring back the elite prospects our system is lacking at the top.  Overall, I think this lists shows that our depth is fairly solid, we just lack the cream at the top.