Elias' rebuild is going to be centered around high draft picks and player development

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, weams said:

The Astros were the worst team for 4 or 5 years. People still went when they got good. 

2.98 mm this year.  Up almost 1.4 mm from their low point.   

[jrobb21613]

The talent I believe was there last year to win a lot more games than we did the orginanazation the mistake of not firing Buck after the disaster of a finish in 2017 when it was clear he had lost the team. This years team with Manny and others gone does not have the talent level of last years but with good coaching I believe we will be better and will win more games and at the right price I think it would be a good move to bring in the right veteran leadership to lead by example for these young guys but it has to be the right guys at the right price.

[Es4M11]

16 hours ago, weams said:

That's what I mean. Baltimore could never get there. 

Certainly would be a long climb to get there, but I think it could be done. Obviously sustained success needs to happen first. The Orioles were just shy of 2.5m in 2014. Excluding 2018, I think the previous 5-6 years of winning brought back a lot of causal fans during that period. I also believe that there is a segment of the fan base that was still absent during this period of time (2012-2017) because they could see that the club was not built for sustained success, and had no real plan to achieve that goal. I think many of the diehard fans became turned off by the way the club was built the last several years, money being poorly spent, and not building off of the success in 2014.

Going forward, I think if the Orioles can build a solid foundation from the ground up (better scouting & development, international signings, greater synergy throughout the organization, etc) and turn that into diverse a team on the filed (no more HR or nothing offense) with sustained success, then a more robust and consistent fan base will materialize in time.

Also would help to lower the cost of upper deck seating during non-premium games. That area of the stadium is a ghost town most nights, and I don't think it would hurt to drop those tickets to $10 or less -- would likely lead to greater concession sales at the least.

 

[terphoopsfan]

12 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

Whom? The Ravens, Redskins and Nats? What college teams? Maryland Terps and Middies.  Who are the so many in the Baltimore Washington area? 

Ravens, Orioles, Redskins, Terps, Wizards, Capitals, Nationals to start not to mention the smaller area colleges like Howard, Coppin St., Towson, etc. If you grew up in the area that's quite a bit of teams in the Balt/DC area to decide how to spend your discretionary income on. Grew up an O's fan many many years ago (think Brooks) and when we moved to NOVA I had an Orioles package for a few seasons before permanently moving south. Hell, I still make sure I plan my vacation around home games when we come back just to catch one. Not exactly sure what's so hard to fathom?

Others are right though, when the team starts hopefully winning again the ballpark will be packed. From '92-'01 they averaged more than 3 mil thru the gates. The reality is kids growing up since 2000 have basically known nothing but a crap product, ownership hasn't actually endeared itself to the fans and there's more options out there than ever before. It'll take a lot of work and marketing, hopefully Elias and Co. can make it rain Orioles magic again.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, terphoopsfan said:

Ravens, Orioles, Redskins, Terps, Wizards, Capitals, Nationals to start not to mention the smaller area colleges like Howard, Coppin St., Towson, etc. If you grew up in the area that's quite a bit of teams in the Balt/DC area to decide how to spend your discretionary income on. Grew up an O's fan many many years ago (think Brooks) and when we moved to NOVA I had an Orioles package for a few seasons before permanently moving south. Hell, I still make sure I plan my vacation around home games when we come back just to catch one. Not exactly sure what's so hard to fathom?

Others are right though, when the team starts hopefully winning again the ballpark will be packed. From '92-'01 they averaged more than 3 mil thru the gates. The reality is kids growing up since 2000 have basically known nothing but a crap product, ownership hasn't actually endeared itself to the fans and there's more options out there than ever before. It'll take a lot of work and marketing, hopefully Elias and Co. can make it rain Orioles magic again.

I am sorry if I sounded harsh. Anyway I hope he can make the changes needed. 

[terphoopsfan]

4 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I am sorry if I sounded harsh. Anyway I hope he can make the changes needed. 

No need to apologize, we all want the same thing. Unfortunately, ownership hasn't giving some of us much to root for thru the years. If you've grown up in the area in the last 20 years and didn't have someone in the family invested in the team it's hard to root for a team that loses a majority of your life. Plus the dynamics of baseball is so different from the other teams/sports that in today's society it's hard to invest that kinda effort over a 162 game schedule. Let's face it, there's more interesting things going on with the other franchises from a win/loss perspective than what we're about to do.

I gotta say I'm probably more interested in what happens at the MiL level this year. I'll follow some of the young kids on the Orioles to watch their production and see how they're progressing. It would be easier if the Orioles would stream their games, much easier for fans like me to follow but not sure if that's going to happen anytime soon.

[Frobby]

Let’s focus on the player development side of this.   As a general matter, what are we expecting/hoping to see?

1.    On the pitching side, Elias has his guy in place in Chris Holt.   Last year, the Astros’ top four affiliates all led their leagues in strikeouts, and Elias has alluded to some “secret sauce” that made that possible.   So, I’ll be looking for an increase in our affiliates’ K rates.   Here’s a comparison between us and the Astros:

Low A: Astros 11.1, O’s 8.5

Hi A: Astros 9.7, O’s 7.8

AA: Astros 9.7, O’s 8.2

AAA: Astros 9.8, O’s 8.3

That will be interesting to follow.   Also, Elias has alluded to the Astros’ belief that certain pitching motions are more sustainable for major league success, and that they only drafted pitchers who already had those motions and wouldn’t be forced into doing something against their nature.   He didn’t really get into detail about what they considered a successful type of motion.    But I think we’ll see some turnover in personnel that may give us a clue as to what Elias is looking for.   

2.   On the hitting side, Tony mentioned on his webcast that the Astros looked for hitters with certain swing planes, and only drafted those types of hitters.    So, I think we’ll be looking at a lot of guys trying to adjust their swing planes.  Another thing I expect to see is more emphasis on plate discipline.    Here’s the spread between BA and OBP at the four levels last year:

Low A: Astros .078, O’s .063.

Hi A: Astros .080, O’s .068

AA: Astros .071, O’s .061

AAA: Astros .079, O’s .068

I’m sure there are some other trends I could pick out, but these seem to be pretty easy indicators to follow this year to judge how player development is going on a macro level.   

[DrungoHazewood]

On 12/31/2018 at 3:47 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Astros drew 2.98M last year.

Yea, but that could have been 3.05 if they'd won 70 games in 2013.  

[interloper]

On 12/31/2018 at 3:34 PM, atomic said:

You also lose fans permanently when you are worst team in league 3 years in a row.  If they are worst team in league in 2020 I think that would be a mistake.  And if there is new ownership by that time Elias might be gone.  Realize the Astros blew 2 of their #1 overall  picks and so did the Ray's.  

 

Don't care.

[NCRaven]

On 1/1/2019 at 9:12 AM, Es4M11 said:

Certainly would be a long climb to get there, but I think it could be done. Obviously sustained success needs to happen first. The Orioles were just shy of 2.5m in 2014. Excluding 2018, I think the previous 5-6 years of winning brought back a lot of causal fans during that period. I also believe that there is a segment of the fan base that was still absent during this period of time (2012-2017) because they could see that the club was not built for sustained success, and had no real plan to achieve that goal. I think many of the diehard fans became turned off by the way the club was built the last several years, money being poorly spent, and not building off of the success in 2014.

Going forward, I think if the Orioles can build a solid foundation from the ground up (better scouting & development, international signings, greater synergy throughout the organization, etc) and turn that into diverse a team on the filed (no more HR or nothing offense) with sustained success, then a more robust and consistent fan base will materialize in time.

Also would help to lower the cost of upper deck seating during non-premium games. That area of the stadium is a ghost town most nights, and I don't think it would hurt to drop those tickets to $10 or less -- would likely lead to greater concession sales at the least.

 

I don't see Baltimore ever reaching 2.98 million, just due to the market size, especially after a third of the market was taken away by the Nats.  In 2017, Houston had a census estimated population of 2.313 million.  Baltimore's was 617 thousand.  The math just doesn't work.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't see Baltimore ever reaching 2.98 million, just due to the market size, especially after a third of the market was taken away by the Nats.  In 2017, Houston had a census estimated population of 2.313 million.  Baltimore's was 617 thousand.  The math just doesn't work.

I agree.    If we couldn’t do better than 2.464 mm in 2014, it’s pretty doubtful we’ll ever see 3 mm again.  But I’d like to win 100 games two years in a row and win the World Series like the Astros did and test that proposition.  

[Santandah]

32 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't see Baltimore ever reaching 2.98 million, just due to the market size, especially after a third of the market was taken away by the Nats.  In 2017, Houston had a census estimated population of 2.313 million.  Baltimore's was 617 thousand.  The math just doesn't work.

 

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree.    If we couldn’t do better than 2.464 mm in 2014, it’s pretty doubtful we’ll ever see 3 mm again.  But I’d like to win 100 games two years in a row and win the World Series like the Astros did and test that proposition.  

2.5 million might not be possible, but that 617,000 population number undersells the market by quite a bit. The total population for the Baltimore metropolitan area -- the city, Baltimore County, Howard County, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Hartford and Queen Anne's -- is closer to 2.8 million. While I don't have the actual stats on where ticket buyers come from, I have to believe that the majority come from the counties, given the wealth distribution in Maryland. 

The Orioles also have to build back up their TV viewership, which will also come from the counties. That viewership is down 24 percent since 2016, according to Forbes. Winning will most cetainly help that, and most certainly help the O's profit margin. 

[TAMC]

Houston Metro area about 6.3 million

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Santandah said:

 

2.5 million might not be possible, but that 617,000 population number undersells the market by quite a bit. The total population for the Baltimore metropolitan area -- the city, Baltimore County, Howard County, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Hartford and Queen Anne's -- is closer to 2.8 million. While I don't have the actual stats on where ticket buyers come from, I have to believe that the majority come from the counties, given the wealth distribution in Maryland. 

The Orioles also have to build back up their TV viewership, which will also come from the counties. That viewership is down 24 percent since 2016, according to Forbes. Winning will most cetainly help that, and most certainly help the O's profit margin. 

Those figures from Forbes related to 2017.    Ratings were down drastically in 2018.    

[NCRaven]

12 minutes ago, TAMC said:

Houston Metro area about 6.3 million

That was my point.  Whether you look at the cities themselves or include the metropolitan areas, Houston is huge compared to Baltimore.  There is no comparison.  The only limit for Houston is the seating capacity of their stadium.  Minute Maid has a capacity of 41,168 x 81 = 3,334,608 is the absolute max.  With standing room, OPACY can handle 48,187.  So conceivably, Baltimore could draw 3.9 mil, but it ain't happening!