Response to Roch's Jan 1st blog on O's moves

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I bet if he moves on most of the following doesn't go with him.

I think it is more about the position than who is filling it.

I’m not so sure.    Roch started his blog while he was at the Sun.   As I recall he was the first to have a daily blog covering the Orioles.   I think a lot of people latched on to him early and stuck with him when he moved to MASN.     His twitter account has 54,000 followers, more than double what Melewski gets and way more than the MASN Nats reporters get, triple what Peter Schmuck gets, about 9 times what Jon Meoli gets, double what Dan Connolly gets.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not so sure.    Roch started his blog while he was at the Sun.   As I recall he was the first to have a daily blog covering the Orioles.   I think a lot of people latched on to him early and stuck with him when he moved to MASN.     His twitter account has 54,000 followers, more than double what Melewski gets and way more than the MASN Nats reporters get, triple what Peter Schmuck gets, about 9 times what Jon Meoli gets, double what Dan Connolly gets.    

Britt is at 45K and she just switched jobs.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Britt is at 45K and she just switched jobs.

That’s the closest to Roch, and she has a national platform.    Joe Trezza, who succeeded her, has 13,000 followers.    It will be interesting to see where that number is at the end of the 2019 season.    

[OregonBird]

I remember Roch when he was covering high school baseball for the Anne Arundel County Sun, a local insert to The Sun, in the early 90s.  Back then he was Roch Eric Kubatko, about 170lbs and sported a somewhat curly, dark mane.  He was always pleasant when talking to my coaches and I whenever he did a write up on us.  That was 26 years ago.   

I hope he's able to stick in this new org.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

It's hard for me to fathom any one or two contracts actually paying for themselves in terms of ticket sales, memorabilia or viewership. Elias would have to find some genuinely undervalued talent to make it worth it.

If this team actually does become competitive, it's because he and his guys are somehow able to squeeze more juice from the 40 man roster. That improvement would likely have to come a little bit from just about every type of adjustment you think you can make (e.g., openers instead of starters, smarter use/match-ups of all pitchers, plate approach improvements, swing plane, better advance scouting/data, better defense/alignments, unexpected players emerging). Even with all of that, it takes real talent to win, particularly in the AL East with 3 90+ win teams and a fourth that has a couple of stud prospects on the way.

I'm not advocating signing any big name free agents. I'm just saying that I'd be fine with them signing a few veterans to one year deals to bridge the gap to their younger players. I personally don't think they have five MLB quality SPs on their current major league roster. I'm not even sure they have four. As long as they're not blocking anyone or bogging themselves down with long term deals I don't see a problem with adding a few selective free agents during the rebuild process. As for all the other things you mentioned (i.e., advanced scouting/data, better defense, etc.) that's not going to happen overnight. I'd say it's going to take at least a year to overhaul the systems and probably longer to change the culture. 

[Aristotelian]

Good post, wildcard. I pretty much agree with all that you said except I don't see any harm in giving Stewart and Mancini reps in the OF in the absence of any alternative. If we could somehow get rid of Trumbo, I would definitely be in favor of moving Stewart to LF.

I would not mind seeing Villar play some SS, if only to increase his trade value.

Per Roch:

* Continue with attempts to re-sign Caleb Joseph to provide a veteran catcher who knows the staff. Pair him with Austin Wynns and let Chance Sisco continue to develop at Triple-A Norfolk. Sisco could force his way back on the roster later in the summer, better prepared to stay on it.

Does this mean that the O's under Elias have been trying to resign Joseph? And does this mean that Caleb has turned down a reasonable offer? Both seem preposterous to me.

[weams]

21 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

Does this mean that the O's under Elias have been trying to resign Joseph? And does this mean that Caleb has turned down a reasonable offer? Both seem preposterous to me.

I think it means that Caleb has not agreed to take a MiLB deal with invite at this point. 

[weams]

22 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good post, wildcard. I pretty much agree with all that you said except I don't see any harm in giving Stewart and Mancini reps in the OF in the absence of any alternative. If we could somehow get rid of Trumbo, I would definitely be in favor of moving Stewart to LF.

I would not mind seeing Villar play some SS, if only to increase his trade value.

Per Roch:

* Continue with attempts to re-sign Caleb Joseph to provide a veteran catcher who knows the staff. Pair him with Austin Wynns and let Chance Sisco continue to develop at Triple-A Norfolk. Sisco could force his way back on the roster later in the summer, better prepared to stay on it.

Does this mean that the O's under Elias have been trying to resign Joseph? And does this mean that Caleb has turned down a reasonable offer? Both seem preposterous to me.

I also do not believe the new management will have Mancini play any outfield if they do keep him. 

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

I think it means that Caleb has not agreed to take a MiLB deal with invite at this point. 

He says to pair Joseph with Wynns to let Sisco develop at AAA???

[weams]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

He says to pair Joseph with Wynns to let Sisco develop at AAA???

So he surmises. He was told by Caleb's side that the Orioles had reached out. The rest is all Roch. Or so I surmise. No one from the club is talking this stuff to Roch. 

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

So he surmises. He was told by Caleb's side that the Orioles had reached out. The rest is all Roch. Or so I surmise. No one from the club is talking this stuff to Roch. 

I just don't see any benefit to bringing back Joseph. He shouldn't be a starting catcher on a MLB team, not even a bad one. If they were truly concerned about Sisco then they probably should have targeted someone like Lucroy. I know it's hindsight, but his 1 year / $3.3M contracts seems very reasonable to me. 

[LookinUp]

57 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't see any harm in giving Stewart and Mancini reps in the OF in the absence of any alternative.

^^^This.

The whole point in having data nerds (which I say with ultimate respect) run your franchise is that they can quantitatively evaluate players independent of the circumstances around them. If Mancini and Stewart are 80% as good as regular outfielders, they'll be able to quantify those affects on the pitchers more usefully than has been done in the past. I'm sure it's not perfect, but this is the added value Elias brings to this franchise.  

 

[Tx Oriole]

4 hours ago, weams said:

I think it means that Caleb has not agreed to take a MiLB deal with invite at this point. 

That's okay to my way of thinking. I don't want them to resign Caleb anyway. What's wrong with Wynns and Sisco?

[Bradysburns]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Here are Stewart's grades from Orioles.com

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

That shows a significant below average arm, average speed and below average fielding.   Not a right fielder IMO.  He is rated as the O's 23rd prospect for good reasons.

Yep - again, a strange first-round pick in my view. Why intentionally pick someone who projects in a limited way? It's not like any particular part of his game -- other than OBP as I recall -- was worth crowing about. I bet he'll be a valuable piece someday, maybe here, maybe not.

But I wouldn't DRAFT that kind of player. I would look to pick up a guy like that exactly how Gillick picked up Inky... on the cheap and at the last minute, and to fill a very specific hole. 

[Bradysburns]

10 hours ago, foxfield said:

We all do, but at least for awhile, Orioles and elite are going to be mutually exclusive.  Trust the process!!!!  We will have to watch some lumps of coal before we get to see any diamonds.

Yes, that's right. The Process... and I do trust it. 

Whew. What a weird feeling. 

Regardless of Stewart's past... I am confident he has a better chance to succeeding, whatever happens, now that Elias and crew are here.