Underrated: 2016

[Just Regular]

 

I was 7, turning 8 in September in 1989.  I have some faint memories from it, but nothing really super clear.  

So was Ballard viewed as a guy during 1989 and into the offseason as "OMG, we got a stud!" or were people back then even saying, "yeahhh....that's just not gonna last."

You know who I did think was becoming a stud that summer - Bob Milacki.

He was a rookie who had a 4.39 ERA after a blowup on July 9th.  He then went on a 17-start run with a 3.03 ERA and 7 IP/start, and in my mind had clearly surpassed Ballard as the Game 1 starter if we got there.

His 36 starts led the league and he was 5th in AL innings amidst this cohort: Saberhagen, D. Stewart, Gubicza, Clemens, MILACKI, Moore, Blyleven, Nolan Ryan

It was a 3-win season from a guy who had been a high-ish draft pick - the kind of year we'll love if Hall or Rodriguez can manage in 2022.

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

You know who I did think was becoming a stud that summer - Bob Milacki.

He was a rookie who had a 4.39 ERA after a blowup on July 9th.  He then went on a 17-start run with a 3.03 ERA and 7 IP/start, and in my mind had clearly surpassed Ballard as the Game 1 starter if we got there.

His 36 starts led the league and he was 5th in AL innings amidst this cohort: Saberhagen, D. Stewart, Gubicza, Clemens, MILACKI, Moore, Blyleven, Nolan Ryan

It was a 3-win season from a guy who had been a high-ish draft pick - the kind of year we'll love if Hall or Rodriguez can manage in 2022.

I'm sure the 18-year-old version of me saw Milacki as the next of the great Oriole starters.  But with the benefit of hindsight and 30 years of analytical advances we can look at his 4.2 K/9, 101 ERA+, and his 243 innings at the age of 24 and have some skepticism that he would continue to be both healthy and good.

Remember his 1988 debut?  Three September starts: eight innings of one hit, shutout ball in his major league debut.  Then eight innings, two runs, five days later.  And capped off with a 10 strikeout 3-hit shutout of the Yanks.  He was basically Cy Young.  His third and first games were the best and 3rd-best starts by Game Score by any Oriole that year.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm sure the 18-year-old version of me saw Milacki as the next of the great Oriole starters.  But with the benefit of hindsight and 30 years of analytical advances we can look at his 4.2 K/9, 101 ERA+, and his 243 innings at the age of 24 and have some skepticism that he would continue to be both healthy and good.

Sometimes I think all the analytics are bad for being a fan.    I like dreaming on a guy who’s had a good couple of months.    I hate it when analytics say there’s a 90% chance it’s a mirage.   

The good news is, there are guys who can beat the odds 3 years out of 4, maybe 4 out of 5.    Give me the Rodrigo Lopezes, the Jeremy Guthries, the Miguel Gonzalezes, and let me enjoy them until the chickens finally come home to roost!

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sometimes I think all the analytics are bad for being a fan.    I like dreaming on a guy who’s had a good couple of months.    I hate it when analytics say there’s a 90% chance it’s a mirage.   

The good news is, there are guys who can beat the odds 3 years out of 4, maybe 4 out of 5.    Give me the Rodrigo Lopezes, the Jeremy Guthries, the Miguel Gonzalezes, and let me enjoy them until the chickens finally come home to roost!

Yea, I strongly disagree. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, I strongly disagree. 

That’s because you are no fun.   

(And yes, I am just joking.)

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sometimes I think all the analytics are bad for being a fan.    I like dreaming on a guy who’s had a good couple of months.    I hate it when analytics say there’s a 90% chance it’s a mirage.   

The good news is, there are guys who can beat the odds 3 years out of 4, maybe 4 out of 5.    Give me the Rodrigo Lopezes, the Jeremy Guthries, the Miguel Gonzalezes, and let me enjoy them until the chickens finally come home to roost!

That is basically the Orioles' MO under DD and Angelos. How's it working out?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s because you are no fun.   

(And yes, I am just joking.)

I just happen to think it's fun to point out that a players BABIP is unsustainable.

We don't all enjoy the same things.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just happen to think it's fun to point out that a players BABIP is unsustainable.

We don't all enjoy the same things.

You probably also enjoy pointing out that a beautiful woman probably won’t look as good in 20 years.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

You probably also enjoy pointing out that a beautiful woman probably won’t look as good in 20 years.   

In some cases it is sustainable.

[Just Regular]

 

I'm sure the 18-year-old version of me saw Milacki as the next of the great Oriole starters.  But with the benefit of hindsight and 30 years of analytical advances we can look at his 4.2 K/9, 101 ERA+, and his 243 innings at the age of 24 and have some skepticism that he would continue to be both healthy and good.

Remember his 1988 debut?  Three September starts: eight innings of one hit, shutout ball in his major league debut.  Then eight innings, two runs, five days later.  And capped off with a 10 strikeout 3-hit shutout of the Yanks.  He was basically Cy Young.  His third and first games were the best and 3rd-best starts by Game Score by any Oriole that year.

Amen brother.  I did a lot of overbidding for him in high school fantasy leagues in 1990 and it....did not go well.

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sometimes I think all the analytics are bad for being a fan.    I like dreaming on a guy who’s had a good couple of months.    I hate it when analytics say there’s a 90% chance it’s a mirage.   

The good news is, there are guys who can beat the odds 3 years out of 4, maybe 4 out of 5.    Give me the Rodrigo Lopezes, the Jeremy Guthries, the Miguel Gonzalezes, and let me enjoy them until the chickens finally come home to roost!

You'd think differently if the O's came up with a Mike Mussina more than once every 40 years!

[DrungoHazewood]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sometimes I think all the analytics are bad for being a fan.    I like dreaming on a guy who’s had a good couple of months.    I hate it when analytics say there’s a 90% chance it’s a mirage.   

The good news is, there are guys who can beat the odds 3 years out of 4, maybe 4 out of 5.    Give me the Rodrigo Lopezes, the Jeremy Guthries, the Miguel Gonzalezes, and let me enjoy them until the chickens finally come home to roost!

Didn't you have a crush on Steve Trachsel?

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You'd think differently if the O's came up with a Mike Mussina more than once every 40 years!

No, you are misunderstanding me. I’m not saying the team shouldn’t use analytics to the greatest degree possible.    I’m just saying that from the fan experience point of view I think things arguably were more enjoyable when we had less of that information.    When I go to a restaurant and have a great meal, I don’t necessarily want to spend my time studying exactly how it was cooked.    I just want to hold each bite in my mouth and savor it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

No, you are misunderstanding me. I’m not saying the team shouldn’t use analytics to the greatest degree possible.    I’m just saying that from the fan experience point of view I think things arguably were more enjoyable when we had less of that information.    When I go to a restaurant and have a great meal, I don’t necessarily want to spend my time studying exactly how it was cooked.    I just want to hold each bite in my mouth and savor it.

I watch a lot of cooking shows.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I watch a lot of cooking shows.

I don’t.   But I do try to stay up on sabermetrics and baseball analytics to a reasonable degree.   I’m just saying that while it enhances my knowledge, I’m not sure it actually enhances my enjoyment of the game.   At least, I have mixed feelings about it.