Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[24fps]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Play in the tail end of the Negro Leagues, be the only player with 15+ seasons of 30 homers, endure death threats and constant racism to break the single most beloved record in sports history and you can be as arrogant as you want.  If anyone's earned it, it's him.

You'll get no disagreement from me.  Every black player who played in the '50's and 60's especially had to be tough to begin with.  That Aaron never appeared arrogant or bitter that I could see is all the more remarkable given the difficulty of the times.

[OFFNY]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I don't like Derek Jeter at all. Then again, I'm not one of his many conquests who got an autographed baseball as a parting gift to remember their one-night stand.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, LA2 said:

 

And so, what did you get instead ??? J/K !!!

 

o

 

 

o

[atomic]

13 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Well, something or somebody didn't last long in that equation.   I'll let others speculate...

Could be worse.  Could have not measured up.  

[Frobby]

Elsewhere, someone posted that Steven Strasburg had just reached 1500 strikeouts and was the fastest to get there.   Can_of_corn jokingly asked if he got there faster than Davis.     The answer is no — Davis got there in 4694 PA, whereas Strasburg faced 5169 batters to get there.   

bobmc asked if Davis was the fastest to get there.    The answer is, I think so.   Mark Reynolds took 4734 to get there.    I haven’t done a comprehensive search but I don’t  see anyone else who’s very close.   

[Roll Tide]

Rob Deer struck out 1409 times in 4513 ABs

[Roll Tide]

Reggie Jackson holds the record for the most career strikeouts by a batterwith 2,597. Jim Thome (2,548), Adam Dunn (2,379), Sammy Sosa (2,306), Alex Rodriguez (2,287) and Andres Galarraga (2,003) are the only other hitters to strikeout over 2,000 times.

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Reggie Jackson holds the record for the most career strikeouts by a batterwith 2,597. Jim Thome (2,548), Adam Dunn (2,379), Sammy Sosa (2,306), Alex Rodriguez (2,287) and Andres Galarraga (2,003) are the only other hitters to strikeout over 2,000 times.

Did not think Arod would have been that high.

[bobmc]

53 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Rob Deer struck out 1409 times in 4513 ABs

Frank Howard had 1460 in 6488 AB's - I was thinking he had 1500.  Kong Kingman had 1816 in 6677 AB's but not sure when he hit 1500.  He had 1576 K's in 5524 AB's so not Kingman either.

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Reggie Jackson holds the record for the most career strikeouts by a batterwith 2,597. Jim Thome (2,548), Adam Dunn (2,379), Sammy Sosa (2,306), Alex Rodriguez (2,287) and Andres Galarraga (2,003) are the only other hitters to strikeout over 2,000 times.

 

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did not think Arod would have been that high.

 

2 hours ago, bobmc said:

Frank Howard had 1460 in 6488 AB's - I was thinking he had 1500.  Kong Kingman had 1816 in 6677 AB's but not sure when he hit 1500.  He had 1576 K's in 5524 AB's so not Kingman either.

Negative bulk records (I.e. most strikeouts, most interceptions, etc.) are funny things. You have to be pretty dang good to play long enough to strikeout 2000+ times. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

What is the most realistic best case scenario for Davis long term?

[TonySoprano]

13 hours ago, bobmc said:

Frank Howard had 1460 in 6488 AB's - I was thinking he had 1500.  Kong Kingman had 1816 in 6677 AB's but not sure when he hit 1500.  He had 1576 K's in 5524 AB's so not Kingman either.

Yeah, the first that came to mind was Kingman, but when I looked at his numbers, Davis had him beat.

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, bobmc said:

Frank Howard had 1460 in 6488 AB's - I was thinking he had 1500.  Kong Kingman had 1816 in 6677 AB's but not sure when he hit 1500.  He had 1576 K's in 5524 AB's so not Kingman either.

Howard was feast or famine with him. Except for Pitch 1, which he liked to see how the pitcher was throwing. Howard was always swinging and when he connected, it wasnt a little cheap homerun, just over the wall, it was usually upperdeck.  Back before the steroid era.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

 

Negative bulk records (I.e. most strikeouts, most interceptions, etc.) are funny things. You have to be pretty dang good to play long enough to strikeout 2000+ times. 

And strikeouts are even funnier, because the standards have so radically changed over history, especially in the past 30-40 years.  In 1980 Omar Moreno had the 10th-most strikeouts in baseball with 101.  Today the average player strikes out 139 times per 600 PAs. 

In 1957 Duke Snider led MLB with 104 Ks.  There have been six teams since 2013 who had seven individual players strike out 104 or more times.

It's pretty amazing that Reggie still holds the MLB career mark.  I assume that (absent any major rules changes) in my lifetime someone will retire with close to 3500 Ks.  Bill James has this rule of thumb that any career record that's less than 15 years of league-leading performance is vulnerable.  Over the past decade the league-leading (batter) K mark is just over 200, so 15 years of that is over 3000.  It's not a matter of if, but when.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Rob Deer struck out 1409 times in 4513 ABs

Over Deer's career the average strikeout rate was about 15-16%.  He struck out 31% of the time.

Today the average rate is 23%, so to match Deer on a context-adjusted basis someone would have to strike out about 47% of the time.  Last year Chris Davis struck out 37% of the time.  I think we're at or near a theoretical limit.  If you're striking out 40% of the time, and walking another 7% you'd have to hit something like .375 on balls in play/homers just to hit .225 overall.  To hit .300 you'd have to hit almost .500 on balls in play, which is basically impossible.

[LA2]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Over Deer's career the average strikeout rate was about 15-16%.  He struck out 31% of the time.

Today the average rate is 23%, so to match Deer on a context-adjusted basis someone would have to strike out about 47% of the time.  Last year Chris Davis struck out 37% of the time.  I think we're at or near a theoretical limit.  If you're striking out 40% of the time, and walking another 7% you'd have to hit something like .375 on balls in play/homers just to hit .225 overall.  To hit .300 you'd have to hit almost .500 on balls in play, which is basically impossible.

Thanks for setting the bar for Krush, who was able to maintain a place in the lineup with a .168 BA last year and .167 so far this season--not even close to the .225 you posited. That lowers his BABIP to an attainable sub-.300 level. 40% means K'ing 200 times in 500 at-bats. I think he can do it!