Will Manny earn his $300 mm contract?

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think yes.  But overall I think Arenado is better and Manny will be in his shadow.  

So hard to tell how good anyone is who plays at Coors.   Arenado is a .984 OPS hitter at home, .787 on the road.    And that spread is just about average for Rockies players.   Certainly Arenado is very good and may be better than Manny at 3B at this point.    He will have much gaudier numbers since Petco is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors.    

[Frobby]

Fun small sample size fact: Manny has a 1.000 OPS at Petco (4 games), .572 at Coors (7 games).   

[Number5]

4 hours ago, Hallas said:

It's possible, I guess.  I honestly can't think of too many SS that shifted positions strictly because of age slowing them down defensively.  Vizquel and Jeter didn't really slow down.  Jeter was a terrible defensive SS for his entire career, and he wasn't any worse at the end of it than he was at the beginning of it.

Seems like a lot of shortstops change positions as they slow down with age.  Ripken, Banks, Fregosi, Petrocelli, Harrah, Tejada, Desmond, Garciaparra all come to mind.  Of course there are plenty that don't change positions because they can't hit well enough to man another position.  For those guys, they're just done when they can't play SS anymore.

[jabba72]

I'll say yes but think there could be some regression his last two, three years.  

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Hallas said:

Your decline phase calculation is bit more rapid than a typical 36 year-old's decline.  According to fangraphs a 36 year old produces about 40 runs worse than their peak.  Assuming his 2018 season is his peak, that would put his age-36 projection at around 20 runs over replacement, which is good for a little over 2 wins.  A decline to 0 at age 36 seems awfully pessimistic barring catastrophic injury.

 

That is probably pessimistic.  But if you assume a less aggressive aging curve you end up with him pushing into the top 25 or 30 position players of all time in career value.  That's certainly possible, but I'm more comfortable with a little steeper decline.

Here's a stretch goal for Manny: If he plays 14 more years and averages 5.5 wins/season he'll pass Mike Schmidt as the highest-valued 3B of all time.

[Moose Milligan]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

So hard to tell how good anyone is who plays at Coors.   Arenado is a .984 OPS hitter at home, .787 on the road.    And that spread is just about average for Rockies players.   Certainly Arenado is very good and may be better than Manny at 3B at this point.    He will have much gaudier numbers since Petco is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors.    

Better defender, too.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

So hard to tell how good anyone is who plays at Coors.   Arenado is a .984 OPS hitter at home, .787 on the road.    And that spread is just about average for Rockies players.   Certainly Arenado is very good and may be better than Manny at 3B at this point.    He will have much gaudier numbers since Petco is at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors.    

 

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Better defender, too.

Yeah, when I said “may be better than Manny at 3B at this point,” that’s what I meant.    

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

Yeah, when I said “may be better than Manny at 3B at this point,” that’s what I meant.    

Maybe.  Advanced stats (looking at UZR primarily) appear to consider MM as the better 3B.  If you want to point to MM's 2017 number as "proof," I think you would have to weigh Arenado's 2016 just as heavily (or close to it).

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Maybe.  Advanced stats (looking at UZR primarily) appear to consider MM as the better 3B.  If you want to point to MM's 2017 number as "proof," I think you would have to weigh Arenado's 2016 just as heavily (or close to it).

Rtot and UZR like Manny better, Rdrs likes Arenado better.  They’re close.    And don’t sleep on Matt Chapman.

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, Number5 said:

Seems like a lot of shortstops change positions as they slow down with age.  Ripken, Banks, Fregosi, Petrocelli, Harrah, Tejada, Desmond, Garciaparra all come to mind.  Of course there are plenty that don't change positions because they can't hit well enough to man another position.  For those guys, they're just done when they can't play SS anymore.

Jeter would have too, but A-Rod was already at third, and couldnt play anywhere else.

Hardy expressed a willingness to go to third, but his playing health went too quick for that.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Hardy expressed a willingness to go to third, but his playing health went too quick for that.

Also, outside of Todd Cruz, it's rare to have a third baseman with a .560 OPS.  I guess it would be a nice mirror image with Davis.

(Alright, so I looked it up and his last 1700 PAs he OPS'd .644, although he was under .600 two seasons)

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That is probably pessimistic.  But if you assume a less aggressive aging curve you end up with him pushing into the top 25 or 30 position players of all time in career value.  That's certainly possible, but I'm more comfortable with a little steeper decline.

Here's a stretch goal for Manny: If he plays 14 more years and averages 5.5 wins/season he'll pass Mike Schmidt as the highest-valued 3B of all time.

But isn't that to be expected for someone that's in the top 30 all time in terms of position player WAR up to his current age?  (Machado is 26, I believe, by B-R's WAR calculation anyway)  I get that you are hesitant to project a 26-year-old into the hall of fame with 10+ years of their career remaining (unless they are named after a type of fish and play in Anaheim) but I also kind of feel like it's not unreasonable given that he's produced so well up to this point.  Looking at the players with similar WAR numbers to Manny up to their age 25 season:

10	Cal Ripken Jr.	34.6	1981	1986	20-25	830	3562	3210	529	927	183	20	133	472	313	10	417	10	2	27	111	11	13	.289	.351	.483	.834	*6/5HD	BAL
11	Rickey Henderson	34.2	1979	1984	20-25	791	3488	2916	586	850	129	29	51	271	520	21	416	20	16	16	40	493	138	.291	.400	.408	.808	*7/8HD9	OAK
12	Ted Williams	34.2	1939	1942	20-23	586	2613	2104	541	749	154	33	127	515	495	45	196	12	4		45	11	11	.356	.481	.642	1.123	*79/H1	BOS
13	Sherry Magee	34.0	1904	1910	19-25	984	4095	3582	552	1062	205	96	28	553	349		301	53	107			287		.296	.367	.431	.798	*7/98H3	PHI
14	Manny Machado	33.8	2012	2018	19-25	926	4074	3720	522	1050	211	12	175	513	296	34	669	15	14	29	108	53	24	.282	.335	.487	.822	*56	BAL-LAD
15	Joe DiMaggio	33.6	1936	1940	21-25	686	3116	2827	613	970	171	58	168	691	260		147	18	11		27	17	3	.343	.402	.623	1.025	*8/79H	NYY
16	Barry Bonds	33.3	1986	1990	21-25	717	3009	2601	468	688	156	26	117	337	377	56	448	11	3	17	28	169	51	.265	.358	.479	.837	*78/H9	PIT
17	Stan Musial	32.7	1941	1946	20-25	611	2655	2323	439	812	185	64	52	357	299	44	103	12	21		34	30	28	.350	.426	.551	.978	973/8H	STL
18	Willie Mays	32.5	1951	1956	20-25	610	2629	2314	419	708	102	43	152	412	286	55	259	10	1	17	53	83	24	.306	.382	.584	.966	*8	NYG
19	Lou Gehrig	31.7	1923	1928	20-25	613	2631	2193	504	753	174	62	111	510	358		283	10	68			26	27	.343	.438	.631	1.069	*3/H97	NYY
20	Babe Ruth	31.1	1914	1920	19-25	533	1948	1568	360	514	118	39	103	359	340		264	11	24			27	14	.328	.451	.650	1.101	71/9H83	BOS-NYY

There are a lot of good players in that list.  Only one of them isn't a HOFer by stats alone.

[makoman]

5 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Jeter would have too, but A-Rod was already at third, and couldnt play anywhere else.

Jeter should have moved somewhere else when they acquired A-Rod to begin with. 

[DrungoHazewood]

22 minutes ago, Hallas said:

But isn't that to be expected for someone that's in the top 30 all time in terms of position player WAR up to his current age?  (Machado is 26, I believe, by B-R's WAR calculation anyway)  I get that you are hesitant to project a 26-year-old into the hall of fame with 10+ years of their career remaining (unless they are named after a type of fish and play in Anaheim) but I also kind of feel like it's not unreasonable given that he's produced so well up to this point.  Looking at the players with similar WAR numbers to Manny up to their age 25 season:

10	Cal Ripken Jr.	34.6	1981	1986	20-25	830	3562	3210	529	927	183	20	133	472	313	10	417	10	2	27	111	11	13	.289	.351	.483	.834	*6/5HD	BAL
11	Rickey Henderson	34.2	1979	1984	20-25	791	3488	2916	586	850	129	29	51	271	520	21	416	20	16	16	40	493	138	.291	.400	.408	.808	*7/8HD9	OAK
12	Ted Williams	34.2	1939	1942	20-23	586	2613	2104	541	749	154	33	127	515	495	45	196	12	4		45	11	11	.356	.481	.642	1.123	*79/H1	BOS
13	Sherry Magee	34.0	1904	1910	19-25	984	4095	3582	552	1062	205	96	28	553	349		301	53	107			287		.296	.367	.431	.798	*7/98H3	PHI
14	Manny Machado	33.8	2012	2018	19-25	926	4074	3720	522	1050	211	12	175	513	296	34	669	15	14	29	108	53	24	.282	.335	.487	.822	*56	BAL-LAD
15	Joe DiMaggio	33.6	1936	1940	21-25	686	3116	2827	613	970	171	58	168	691	260		147	18	11		27	17	3	.343	.402	.623	1.025	*8/79H	NYY
16	Barry Bonds	33.3	1986	1990	21-25	717	3009	2601	468	688	156	26	117	337	377	56	448	11	3	17	28	169	51	.265	.358	.479	.837	*78/H9	PIT
17	Stan Musial	32.7	1941	1946	20-25	611	2655	2323	439	812	185	64	52	357	299	44	103	12	21		34	30	28	.350	.426	.551	.978	973/8H	STL
18	Willie Mays	32.5	1951	1956	20-25	610	2629	2314	419	708	102	43	152	412	286	55	259	10	1	17	53	83	24	.306	.382	.584	.966	*8	NYG
19	Lou Gehrig	31.7	1923	1928	20-25	613	2631	2193	504	753	174	62	111	510	358		283	10	68			26	27	.343	.438	.631	1.069	*3/H97	NYY
20	Babe Ruth	31.1	1914	1920	19-25	533	1948	1568	360	514	118	39	103	359	340		264	11	24			27	14	.328	.451	.650	1.101	71/9H83	BOS-NYY

There are a lot of good players in that list.  Only one of them isn't a HOFer by stats alone.

I think there's a good chance Manny stays in this peer group and clearly is a Hall of Famer.  I just don't want to get over-exuberant.

The only non-Hall of Famer on that list is Sherry Magee.  He certainly could be in Cooperstown, and has a far better resume than many Hall of Famers.  He had a 137 OPS+, basically on par with Reggie or ARod or Brett or Griffey, but he played in the deadball era so his raw numbers weren't as impressive.  And when he had an off year in '19 he went and played about five more excellent years in the independent high minors.

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think there's a good chance Manny stays in this peer group and clearly is a Hall of Famer.  I just don't want to get over-exuberant.

The only non-Hall of Famer on that list is Sherry Magee.  He certainly could be in Cooperstown, and has a far better resume than many Hall of Famers.  He had a 137 OPS+, basically on par with Reggie or ARod or Brett or Griffey, but he played in the deadball era so his raw numbers weren't as impressive.  And when he had an off year in '19 he went and played about five more excellent years in the independent high minors.

I guess you're considering Bonds a HOFer for all intents and purposes.