Where I think the O's roster is right now

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Natty said:

How is Rickard's CF compared to Mullins? Seriously...

Solid. Not sure how it compares. Definitely plays top 3 defense w/r/t likely Orioles outfielders.

[Natty]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If Stewart doesn’t get a good look this year then I don’t know when he ever will. 

I just don’t see the harm of playing him a ton first couple months of the season. 

Stewart hit better than Mullins last year in the majors in every category. And also tied with him with 2 SB. LOL. 

[eddie83]

To me Davis plays a good bit into this. I say give him a couple of months and cut bait if things don’t change. That buys some time for the minor leaguers to grow. You can’t sell your fans on energetic play, hope and young talent with a 33 year old who is finished. Just give him some time. I think we all know the ending, just a matter of when. That said give him a couple of months. 

I don’t expect it to get better and when he is gone move Trey to first. Hays plays everyday up here then. If Stewart is playing well he stays and bring Diaz if he deserves it up. Can always take at bats away from Trumbo, or even let him go. 

 

 

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, Natty said:

Stewart hit better than Mullins last year in the majors in every category. And also tied with him with 2 SB. LOL. 

47 PA.

I think Stewart is a better hitter than Mullins, but the bar is lower for Mullins because of the greater defensive and positional value. 

However 47 PA does not tell you anything meaningful. 

[wildcard]

Their new management and I think they go off what they see this spring.   So spring will mean more than what they did in the minors last season IMO.

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Their new management and I think they go off what they see this spring.   So spring will mean more than what they did in the minors last season IMO.

I think you're fooling yourself. They'll go with what fits the long-term organizational plan. Spring will only matter so much.

[Luke-OH]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Their new management and I think they go off what they see this spring.   So spring will mean more than what they did in the minors last season IMO.

An analytically inclined FO will use all the data available to them, most of that data was logged before this spring. 

[wildcard]

The last 2 1/2 weeks of ST will be very telling IMO.    The regulars will  play a lot more to the other team.   That will allow Elias and Hyde to see their players in more game conditions.    They will have plenty of data to go on.  They will have bats speed, arm speed.   break on the pitches, strike zone recognition,  etc.

The O's starting pitching will tell a lot about where the team is headed.  If the starting pitching looks good then the defense is already improved, the relief pitching is good enough to compete and they will need to see how the offense comes together.

If the starting pitching is below average then all else matters a lot less.  They will keep more of the young prospects in the minors to save service time.

[DrungoHazewood]

52 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think you're fooling yourself. They'll go with what fits the long-term organizational plan. Spring will only matter so much.

I think there's this belief that the Elias Way will transform any number of players into far better versions of themselves, so what they did last year or prior is of little consequence. 

That's mostly misplaced.  Most players are not Dallas Keuchel, a couple analytics-based tweaks removed from a Cy Young.  The Orioles didn't recommend wildly counter-productive approaches for most of their farmhands last year.  For most, if not almost all, Orioles what they did last year and their established scouting reports and age are a reasonable guides to what they're going to do in the future.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think there's this belief that the Elias Way will transform any number of players into far better versions of themselves, so what they did last year or prior is of little consequence. 

That's mostly misplaced.  Most players are not Dallas Keuchel, a couple analytics-based tweaks removed from a Cy Young.  The Orioles didn't recommend wildly counter-productive approaches for most of their farmhands last year.  For most, if not almost all, Orioles what they did last year and their established scouting reports and age are a reasonable guides to what they're going to do in the future.

I'm actually one of the people who has that belief. The questions are how to quantify "any number of players" and how you figure out which ones would make that jump with or without new leadership. Hays and Diaz could have great years, but they might have anyway if no changes were made.

I expect a smarter organization will put guys with the same talents into a better competitive position, and that will produce better results fairly broadly. However, that won't likely turn Bundy into a ground ball pitcher or Davis into a .300 hitter. It's more likely, IMO, to turn your run of the mill .250 hitter into a .260 hitter, or to cut down on fly ball % a bit. However, across an entire organization, those small improvements add up.

I also think these improvements will compound over time. That's the expectation; that a smarter org will grow better all around players through a consistently better approach. This is why we're all excited.

On the periphery, I'm holding out hope that 1-3 guys use this new information and has an epiphany that creates much better results, along the lines of Keuchel. I'm not betting that it'll happen and I have no idea who those people might be, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. As I mentioned to Tony in another thread, I'd wager that's more likely with a guy who has elite physical traits than your journeyman #5 starter with years of mediocrity under his belt, but that's just my guess. Of course, that would have partially ruled out Keuchel (e.g., physical traits), so what do I know?

Hopefully this has enough caveats to not get piled upon. Lol.

[Frobby]

Honestly, sometimes we get too focused on who makes the OD roster and who starts or comes off the bench.    It’s a long season.   I’m more interested in who will look like a nugget by the end of the season than who makes our OD roster.    

[foxfield]

On 3/8/2019 at 11:56 AM, wildcard said:

The last 2 1/2 weeks of ST will be very telling IMO.    The regulars will  play a lot more to the other team.   That will allow Elias and Hyde to see their players in more game conditions.    They will have plenty of data to go on.  They will have bats speed, arm speed.   break on the pitches, strike zone recognition,  etc.

The O's starting pitching will tell a lot about where the team is headed.  If the starting pitching looks good then the defense is already improved, the relief pitching is good enough to compete and they will need to see how the offense comes together.

If the starting pitching is below average then all else matters a lot less.  They will keep more of the young prospects in the minors to save service time.

My preview says our starting pitching is low floor low ceiling. Outlook calls for pain. 

[sportsfan8703]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

CF Mullins

2B Villar

RF Hays

1B Trumbo

LF Santander

DH Mancini

3B Ruiz

C  Sisco

SS Martin

Bench -  Wynns, Jackson, Rickard, Nunez  

Starting Pitching

1)  Cobb  -   2)  Bundy  -  3) Cashman   -  4) Hess    5)  Karns

Bulllpen

1) Givens -  2) Scott  -   3) Castro  4) Fry   5 ) Phillips  6)  Bleier   7)  Wright

Really good, and well thought out post. Rep to you. I shortened to not make not make a super post follow up post. My thoughts,

• Who starts on the DL?  Davis, Karns, Trumbo, Bleier,  a random injury that pops up. 

• Love the ST Diaz is having. We have options now with everyone having good ST so that there is no need to start his service clock. Would not hate it though. 

• OF: I think Mullins, Rickard and Mancini are locks. So it’s Hays, Smith JR, Stewart, Santander and EY Jr fighting for 1, maybe 2(Trumbo or CD DL) spots. I’d give the edge to Smith JR and Hays/Santander. 

• I’d give big edges to guys already on the 40 man when making the team. Our 40 man is pretty snug at the moment. Except for Alberto v. Escobar, adding a C or EY Jr, would result in dropping a player with options. Therefore, I’m saying one of Alberto/Escobar makes the team. Wynns is the backup C. One of the OF on the 40 man makes it over EY JR. With all that being said I see,

Cobb, Bundy, Cashner, Hess, Karns/Wright 

Givens, Scott, Kline, Castro, Bleier, Arajuo, Karns/Wright

Mullins, Smith Jr, Villar, Mancini, Santander, Nunez, Ruiz, Sisco, Martin

Wynns, Davis(Nunez is better), Rickard, Escobar(swaps with Alberto on 40 man) 

Trumbo to DL(If healthy he takes Santander’s spot. In lineup and on 25)

[Going Underground]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here is what I'd like to see come OD, assuming Trumbo, Karns, and Wynns are not on the IL to start the season.

CF Mullins

2B Villar

RF Hays

1B Trumbo

LF Santander

DH Mancini

3B Ruiz

C  Sisco

SS Martin

Bench -  Wynns, Jackson, Rickard, Nunez      (Would not be surprised if Escobar, Sucre, and Young are actually here for "veteran" presence)

 

IMO, this is one of the best potential defensive alignments with Sisco and Santander being the only ones considered below average at their positions.  And I think those two have the ability to be close to average or at least not liabilities in the field.  Trumbo has historically hit better when in the field and Mancini seemed to have no problem in the DH role.  The difference in defense is probably negligible but a healthy Trumbo probably has he edge as a 1B.   Trying to maximize Trumbo's value heading into the summer although it probably doesn't make much difference there.   Santander is winning a job more than Stewart is losing it.   I chalk Hays last year up to injury.  Based on his 2017 season and this spring, he's in.   It's not like these guys are 21/22.   Let's see what they can do.   I also that Nunez is likely not to stay as a bench option in this alignment because his only role would be to platoon with Ruiz and he doesn't offer much else.   Still, with Jackson being able to play SS/2B, I'd rather hold onto Nunez awhile longer than carry Escobar, who is more likely to make the bench at Nunez's expense.

 

Starting Pitching

1)  Cobb  -   2)  Bundy  -  3) Cashman   -  4) Hess    5)  Karns

Bulllpen

1) Givens -  2) Scott  -   3) Castro  4) Fry   5 ) Phillips  6)  Bleier   7)  Wright

 

I understand Karns is probably not ready to start the season in the rotation.  I'm not a believer in Wright but he probably gets some starts while Karns gets up to speed in side sessions or back in Sarasota on the IL.   Obviously, if the latter happens, it opens up another roster spot.

 

This leaves us with something like this at Norfolk.

1B Mountcaste -   2B - Reinheimer  -  SS - Alberto  - 3B -  Wilkerson -  C Cervenka  -  LF Smith - CF - Diaz -  RF - Stewart - DH ?

Starters -   1) Ynoa  -  2) Akins -  3) Rogers  4)  Kremer   5)  Ortiz

Bullpen -   1) Carroll  2) L. Gonzalez  3) Kline  4) Ysla  5) Yackabonis  6) Y. Ramirez

 

P.S.  Of course, this is with the Orioles ownership having the guts to do the right thing and release Chris Davis.   The money is spent.   Putting an inferior player on the field because you made a huge mistake makes no sense to me at all.   

Wynns has not started since last Sunday and is not starting today.What is the extent of his injury? Does he have options? If Nunez,Santander ,Sisco and Mancini in the outfield,the defense would be as bad as last year. I don't see them doing this because they are preaching defense.But Buck used to always supposedly put a priority on defense.

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Going Underground said:

Wynns has not started since last Sunday and is not starting today.What is the extent of his injury? Does he have options? If Nunez,Santander ,Sisco and Mancini in the outfield,the defense would be as bad as last year. I don't see them doing this because they are preaching defense.But Buck used to always supposedly put a priority on defense.

Wynns has 2 options.