Where I think the O's roster is right now

[sportsfan8703]

Ruiz and Nunez both make the starting lineup. Ruiz at 3rd, Nunez at 1st. Escobar vs Alberto is a straight 40 man roster spot battle. If Wynns is hurt then we have to make a 40 man move to add a C. 

40. Alberto(Escobar will likely replace him)

39. Wilkerson- Options don’t matter here, lots of  Util depth now. Where does he rank in the UT depth?  Behind Jackson, Escobar, Alberto, Peterson, Reinheimer? Pointless for him to be on the 40 man.  We’re in a different spot than last September.

38. Arajuo - Is he really worth the trouble?  Is he really that good?  Where does he rank amongst the other bullpen options?  Again, we’re just in a much different spot than we were last OD. 

37. Wright - Will always have to perform and eat innings to justify keeping him over a rotation of fresh arms with options.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Here is what I'd like to see come OD, assuming Trumbo, Karns, and Wynns are not on the IL to start the season.

CF Mullins

2B Villar

RF Hays

1B Trumbo

LF Santander

DH Mancini

3B Ruiz

C  Sisco

SS Martin

Bench -  Wynns, Jackson, Rickard, Nunez      (Would not be surprised if Escobar, Sucre, and Young are actually here for "veteran" presence)

 

IMO, this is one of the best potential defensive alignments with Sisco and Santander being the only ones considered below average at their positions.  And I think those two have the ability to be close to average or at least not liabilities in the field.  Trumbo has historically hit better when in the field and Mancini seemed to have no problem in the DH role.  The difference in defense is probably negligible but a healthy Trumbo probably has he edge as a 1B.   Trying to maximize Trumbo's value heading into the summer although it probably doesn't make much difference there.   Santander is winning a job more than Stewart is losing it.   I chalk Hays last year up to injury.  Based on his 2017 season and this spring, he's in.   It's not like these guys are 21/22.   Let's see what they can do.   I also that Nunez is likely not to stay as a bench option in this alignment because his only role would be to platoon with Ruiz and he doesn't offer much else.   Still, with Jackson being able to play SS/2B, I'd rather hold onto Nunez awhile longer than carry Escobar, who is more likely to make the bench at Nunez's expense.

 

Starting Pitching

1)  Cobb  -   2)  Bundy  -  3) Cashman   -  4) Hess    5)  Karns

Bulllpen

1) Givens -  2) Scott  -   3) Castro  4) Fry   5 ) Phillips  6)  Bleier   7)  Wright

 

I understand Karns is probably not ready to start the season in the rotation.  I'm not a believer in Wright but he probably gets some starts while Karns gets up to speed in side sessions or back in Sarasota on the IL.   Obviously, if the latter happens, it opens up another roster spot.

 

This leaves us with something like this at Norfolk.

1B Mountcaste -   2B - Reinheimer  -  SS - Alberto  - 3B -  Wilkerson -  C Cervenka  -  LF Smith - CF - Diaz -  RF - Stewart - DH ?

Starters -   1) Ynoa  -  2) Akins -  3) Rogers  4)  Kremer   5)  Ortiz

Bullpen -   1) Carroll  2) L. Gonzalez  3) Kline  4) Ysla  5) Yackabonis  6) Y. Ramirez

 

P.S.  Of course, this is with the Orioles ownership having the guts to do the right thing and release Chris Davis.   The money is spent.   Putting an inferior player on the field because you made a huge mistake makes no sense to me at all.   

Nice post but Elias is not giving up on Davis before Don Long as time to work to fix his problems.   Trumbo is not standing in the field for nine innings with his reconstructed knee.  Mullins looks over matched at the plate.  Looks like you are sending Araujo back to the Cubs.  Karns not only has to get healthy he has to pitch well enough to win a spot.  I don't see that happening.

Here is my:

Villar 2B

Rickard LF

Mancini 1B

Trumbo DH

Ruiz 3B

Hays CF

Sisco C

Santander RF

Martin ss

Bench:  Davis, Jackson, Escobar,  Susac or Perez

Cobb, Buncy, Hess, Cashner, Wright

Givens, Bleier, Castro, Fry, Phillips, Araujo, Yacabonis

Ynoa is gaining and could make the team if he has a good two weeks.  Maybe he comes up when Araujo goes down after 17 days.

Nunez is playing himself off the roster.   Diaz comes up to play right before May 1st.

 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

21 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Wynns has not started since last Sunday and is not starting today.What is the extent of his injury? Does he have options? If Nunez,Santander ,Sisco and Mancini in the outfield,the defense would be as bad as last year. I don't see them doing this because they are preaching defense.But Buck used to always supposedly put a priority on defense.

If he is able to swing a bat next week (well, this week, now) then does that give him enough time? 

If anything, it helps give Sucre some extra playing time as it is one less catcher in the rotation.

[UpstateNYfan]

18 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Wynns has not started since last Sunday and is not starting today.What is the extent of his injury? Does he have options? If Nunez,Santander ,Sisco and Mancini in the outfield,the defense would be as bad as last year. I don't see them doing this because they are preaching defense.But Buck used to always supposedly put a priority on defense.

That's contradictory to what he put on the field. Manny, ss; AJ cf; Mancini lf, Trumbo rf...Although many thought last years team would have a chance to make the playoffs, this defensive alignment doesn't cut it. BS liked a defensive catcher...all else was who could hit dingers.

[HowAboutThat]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nice post but Elias is not giving up on Davis before Don Long as time to work to fix his problems.   Trumbo is not standing in the field for nine innings with his reconstructed knee.  Mullins looks over matched at the plate.  Looks like you are sending Araujo back to the Cubs.  Karns not only has to get healthy he has to pitch well enough to win a spot.  I don't see that happening.

Here is my:

Villar 2B

Rickard LF

Mancini 1B

Trumbo DH

Ruiz 3B

Hays CF

Sisco C

Santander RF

Martin ss

Bench:  Davis, Jackson, Escobar,  Susac or Perez

Cobb, Buncy, Hess, Cashner, Wright

Givens, Bleier, Castro, Fry, Phillips, Araujo, Yacabonis

Ynoa is gaining and could make the team if he has a good two weeks.  Maybe he comes up when Araujo goes down after 17 days.

Nunez is playing himself off the roster.   Diaz comes up to play right before May 1st.

 

You both have some good ideas. I agree that Scott doesn’t make it. However, Mullins isn’t going anywhere, and Wynns is the best overall combination of D and O so he also stays. Bleier May start in the minors for a week or so so he can get in some extra prep work. I don’t think Escobar makes the team. He’s never hit and his defense collapsed the last three years. He serves no purpose. 

[HowAboutThat]

On 3/8/2019 at 9:49 AM, LookinUp said:

Solid. Not sure how it compares. Definitely plays top 3 defense w/r/t likely Orioles outfielders.

The only question about Rickard is whether he starts every day or as part of a platoon.

[HowAboutThat]

On 3/8/2019 at 7:48 AM, Luke-OH said:

Diaz: 0% BB, 14.8% K 

Mullins: 8% BB, 12% K

Stewart: 8% BB, 32% K

Bostick: 0% BB, 31.8% K

Mountcastle: 12% BB, 24% K

Hays: 4.5% BB, 18.2% K

Jackson: 8.7% BB, 21.7% K

Rickard: 8.7% BB, 17.4% K

Ruiz: 16% BB, 20% K

Wilkerson: 0% BB, 38.1% K

Martin: 9.1% BB, 13.6% K

Santander: 4.8% BB, 28.6% K

Nunez: 0% BB, 26.3% K

Villar: 10% BB, 30% K

Young Jr: 19% BB, 23.8% K

Escobar: 15.8% BB, 0% K

Peterson: 15.8% BB, 10.5% K

Reinheimer: 0% BB, 6.7% K

Perez: 0% BB, 14.3% K

Davis: 14.3% BB, 50% K

Sisco: 25% BB, 18.8% K

K rate begins to stabilize at 60 PA, BB rate at 120 PA. So none of these numbers mean too much right now, but they reflect true talent in a much smaller sample than overall triple slash. 

Davis has a 50% K rate!  Wowjustwow.

meanwhile Sisco has gotten his down to 18.8%, which is a huge improvement. I hope his opposition has been mostly MLB quality.

[sportsfan8703]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nunez is playing himself off the roster.   Diaz comes up to play right before May 1st.

 

Nunez is playing himself into 1B. That’s fine. I see nobody blocking him. Ruiz looks like a really good pickup. Nunez looks like what we thought he was. Good bat, below average defense at 1st. I don’t want to give up Nunez’s bat because of CD or Trumbo. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Davis has a 50% K rate!  Wowjustwow.

 

Have you been paying attention the last few years? 

[Natty]

 Last year we gave Santander 101 AB and he could not hit. This year in ST he is absolutely hitting great. Putting up spectacular numbers 

.458

.500

.958

1.458

 Does it mean anything? 

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, Natty said:

 Last year we gave Santander 101 AB and he could not hit. This year in ST he is absolutely hitting great. Putting up spectacular numbers 

.458

.500

.958

1.458

 Does it mean anything? 

The swing looks better, but then again, it looked good in AA in 2017, but under the lights it lost it's fluidity as he looked like he tried to do too much, leading to a stiff, grooved swing. So I think a lot of it is mental for Santander, I'm not comfortable getting on board until I see him take some relaxed ABs with fluid swings in the majors. 

Edit: BB/K isn't great, but he has impacted the ball on contact. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Davis has a 50% K rate!  Wowjustwow.

meanwhile Sisco has gotten his down to 18.8%, which is a huge improvement. I hope his opposition has been mostly MLB quality.

If it wasn’t for the way he’s looked doing it, I wouldn’t be that worried about 7 K’s in 14 PA for Davis.  Even in his very best season (2013), he once struck out 7 times in 12 PA.   In a 9 day stretch of 2012, he had skeins of 7 K’s in 12 PA and then 7 K’s in 11 PA.   He’s probably struck out 7+ times in 14 PA many times in his career, even when he was pretty good.    

The bigger worry here is that he really doesn’t look like he has any confidence or ability.    He looks utterly confused.    He’s not some aggressive guy hacking at too many pitches.    He just looks impossibly torn between taking clear strikes and then swinging at breaking stuff a foot out of strike zone.

It’s still only 14 PA, but I’m not optimistic of any turnaround whatsoever.   

[ChuckS]

The big question for me is whether both Trumbo and Davis (long shot to be released, but possible) make the OD roster.  It's looking more and more like that is the case with Trumbo slated to get into games next week. 

If one or both are left off the roster, that opens up a spot for a Santander or possibly a Hays but now I think you have the following for position players:

Catcher (2): Sisco, Wynns 

Infielders (6): Davis, Trumbo, Villar, Martin, Ruiz, Nunez 

Outfielders (5): Mullins, Stewart, Rickard, Mancini (IF/OF), Jackson (IF/OF)

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A few extra thoughts.  My post was prefaced with "what I would like to see" not "this is what I think will happen".   Anyway, a few points.

1. Pedro Araujo.  No problem waiting 17 days and sending him out.   I actually thought he looked good the first two weeks of the season with a couple of good outings against the Yankees in extra innings.   He was never the same after that.  He has an average fastball and a very good breaking pitch.   Is he anything beyond ordinary?   Because when it comes to ordinary or better RH relievers I count 1) Carroll 2) Yackabonis 3) Kline 4) Wotherspoon  5) Ramirez 6) Ynoa 7) Phillips  etc. etc. etc.  We got Miguel Castro off of waivers.   Good RH reliever arms are not hard to find.    Does Araujo have the potential to be better than ordinary?  No sure.

2. Cedric Mullins -  Overmatched?   Haha.    Sure, it's easy to say that because he's 4 for 27.   Of course 3 of those hits are for xbases and he's only K'd 3 times along with 3 walks.  I am not worried about Cedric.  He has progressed every year he's been in pro ball.   I'm not sure what he turns out to be but "overmatched" will not be one of them.   I certainly would hope that a player with potential like Mullins is in the lineup over a known quantity like Joey Rickard.

3. No one knows what these guys look like once the regular season starts and they stop seeing frequent hanging breaking pitches and poorly located fastballs.  I know that Santander has potential, if he can stay healthy.   I know that Hays has potential.     Santander may flame out but let's find out.    He's 24.   I have no desire to see what he can do in Norfolk while Joey Rickard plays a decent LF and tries to get his OPS above .700.    

Technically, we didn’t get Castro off waivers.    We traded for him after he had been DFA before he was put on waivers.    I don’t think that changes your point.    I’m not in a very good position to evaluate Araujo but I do like him better than some of the guys you listed.     I agree with your points on the outfielders.   

[Luke-OH]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Technically, we didn’t get Castro off waivers.    We traded for him after he had been DFA before he was put on waivers.    I don’t think that changes your point.    I’m not in a very good position to evaluate Araujo but I do like him better than some of the guys you listed.     I agree with your points on the outfielders.   

I like him better than Wotherspoon, but that's it.