Austin Hays 2019

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There is no doubt that the lack of walks limits the upside of both Hays and Mountcastle, but we can probably stop acting like Tony and Luke don't know about the issue. They're obviously weighing everything, including age, position, hit tool, power, etc. along with the walks.

I think Hays, if healthy, can be better than Adam Jones. That's pretty darn good, but not Mookie Betts good. I think Mountcastle would be worse, mostly because he doesn't have defensive value. I don't think the walks will be fatal to their profiles, but admit that I am concerned it will be a very big issue in the majors.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would love if Mountcastle was more patient and drew more walks, but he hits for a high average and some power which means he gets good contact on pitches he can hit. If he were undisciplined and chasing pitches he couldn't hit well often, his power and average numbers wouldn't be there. some guys foul off or miss hittable pitches that extend at bats and may lead to a walk. Mountcastle doesn't miss that many of those pitches. 

[Moose Milligan]

Would like to see both up in Baltimore in September.  I have a feeling that it won't happen.

 

[Tony-OH]

Let me put it this way on Mountcastle. Imagine a world where Mountcastle went to college and the Orioles drafted him in the first round last year (would have been his Junior year) instead of Grayson Rodriguez. Let's say the Orioles were so enamored with him that they sent him right to Bowie and he slashed .297/.341/.464/.806.

Then in his first full season in the minors at 22-years of age (Mancini started  in Delmarva at 22), they sent him to AAA and he slashed .297/.320/.493/.813. Are you telling me people wouldn't be flipping out over this kid?

Mountcastle had a bad night last night where he wasn't seeing the ball well and is in a bit of a funk over his last 12 games (.204/.235/.388/.623), but he's 22-years old and has as much upside offensively as anyone in the organization not named Adley Rutschman.

[orioles22]

I agree. Let's get him in left and Hays in center the rest of the year and hope they can fill those roles in April in Baltimore.

[LookinUp]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Imagine a world where Mountcastle went to college and the Orioles drafted him in the first round last year ... Let's say the Orioles were so enamored with him that they sent him right to Bowie and he slashed .297/.341/.464/.806.

Then in his first full season in the minors at 22-years of age ..., they sent him to AAA and he slashed .297/.320/.493/.813. Are you telling me people wouldn't be flipping out over this kid?

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

There's no doubt that's true, but we always hope that professional instruction will improve the warts of guys we draft. Mountcastle has had that instruction for years now and still has that same wart. That makes me less bullish that he'll be able to improve upon this one aspect of his game than I might be if he were just leaving college.

I'm not speaking for RZNJ, but maybe that's where the disconnect is between me and you guys. I really do value the age/level thing, but I think I'm discounting it a bit because he's already been in the system for so long. I feel like age/level is the reason he's rated higher than guys like Diaz and Hays, but I don't like the profile as much as those guys, so I'd personally rate him below them.

It's also worth noting that I think we're arguing on the margins here. I like Mountcastle, but am sympathetic to RZNJ's position too.

 

Part of Mountcastle's instruction was "Learn what you can't hit".  The O's under Buck and Dan were not exactly teaching patience in the minors.  Weren't Hays' walk numbers a lot better in college?

[LookinUp]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

Because his walk numbers aren't as bad and he has genuine defensive value. I think their hit tools are similar, with a bit less power for Hays.

For me, I don't like that either's walk rates are low, but I really worry about just how low Mountcastle's are. They're pretty extreme.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Real question, why are you bullish on Hays more than Mountcastle when he has similar aggressive tendencies and has been older at the same levels and has struggled with injuries over his career?

I’m not LookinUp, but it seems to me Hays’ advantage is on the defensive side, where he can handle CF if needed and has an above average arm.     Offensively they are pretty similar.   

[OsEatAlEast]

I remember being really pumped when the O's got Hays in the 3rd round in the 2016 draft. He was pretty close to a 5 tool player out of college. I just couldn't believe the O's got lucky enough to nab him. Didn't see the injury bug hitting him this hard though. Hope he can shake it off soon.

[hoosiers]

Would like to see Hays promoted sooner than later.  He seems to have AA nailed (he did a few years ago) and seems on a good run right now at Norfolk.  Hays is 24.  If he has some adjusting to do to major league pitching, and perhaps some additional plate discipline lessons, I would prefer it start sooner than later.  Not keen to see Hays struggle with major league pitching and be sent up and down multiple times next year and have him be a question mark entering 2021.  Hays was about the best hitter on the major league team in Spring Training.  The only difference between that guy and right now has been some interim injuries.  Hopefully, he kicks butt through the end of this month and is called up around that time.  He's ready.  He has been ready.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Hayes put up a Monster season in 2017.  Relative to other hitters, he was at the top among his peers.  Was that guy a mirage?  He's been injured a bit since then.   I know Tony keeps playing the age card with Mountcastle but I'm not buying it.  His career OPS is under .800 and it's slightly above in an enhanced offensive environment this year.  5 walks and 47 strikeouts since June 1.  A slump?   He got more aggressive?  I didn't think it was possible.  Huge red flag with the caveat that I respect Tony and Luke's positive take.  I'm having trouble looking at the numbers and a feeling about Mountcastle and buying into that positive vibe.   Everyone assumes he'll be average in LF.  I do not.   

Everyone’s entitled to have a slump.    Mountcastle was rock steady for three months.   I expect him to snap out of this.    If he’s still struggling in August, I’ll worry about it.   

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Because his walk numbers aren't as bad and he has genuine defensive value. I think their hit tools are similar, with a bit less power for Hays.

For me, I don't like that either's walk rates are low, but I really worry about just how low Mountcastle's are. They're pretty extreme.

Valid points. I agree that Hays has the significant advantage with speed and defensive value, but I think Mountcastle's bat will end up being more impactful. Honestly, they are pretty close as prospects for me at this point. How they finish the year could swing it to one or other, but they will most likely be next to each other on the prospect list.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Valid points. I agree that Hays has the significant advantage with speed and defensive value, but I think Mountcastle's bat will end up being more impactful. Honestly, they are pretty close as prospects for me at this point. How they finish the year could swing it to one or other, but they will most likely be next to each other on the prospect list.

Mountcastle has a pretty big advantage when it comes to being healthy enough to actually play.

[Answerman]

Had an opportunity to see them both play a couple games this weekend in Durham. Just based on the eye test, Hays was the best player on the team...and second place (perhaps Mason Williams?) wasn’t close. The ball screams off his bat. Makes solid contact. Even his outs are loud. 

Unfortunately, Mountcastle was a non-factor. His contact was routine ground outs. I’ve also seen him a bunch of times in the past as well. For my money, while I absolutely hold out hope for the kid, I think his MLB ceiling is Mancini - if everything falls into place. I would almost be willing to include him in a trade if something comes available that is worth getting...perhaps down the road.

All in all, I didn’t see much in Norfolk that gets me excited.