An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

[Spl51]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2019/11/15/who-detroit-tigers-draft-no-1-could-come-down-trio/4178857002/

Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law say Martin should go 1-1. 

Some other scouts are saying Torkelson might fit at third, usually talk like this is seriously optimistic though.

[sportsfan8703]

On 11/3/2019 at 1:20 PM, Spl51 said:

With Manning already getting MLB time and Mize coming soon, as well as other pitching prospects that are more advanced, they have almost no impact position players coming up. The Tigers are old school, looking to fill holes with the draft, they've drafted pitching heavily for a while. There's a chance they go with Torkelson, it just doesn't seem likely for a first baseman to go 1st overall over the shortstop.

Good thoughts. Seems like Martin will be their pick then. They are tanking hard too, looks like they got mad when we got AR. 

I’m a big fan of going bats with these high picks but Hancock is a stud prospect. Hancock coupled with Hall/Rodriguez would give us 3 TOR potential arms for the 2022-23 rotation. Combine those three with the wave of arms in AAA in 2020 and that would give us a good chance at having a legit, AL East, rotation. 

[WalkWithElias]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good thoughts. Seems like Martin will be their pick then. They are tanking hard too, looks like they got mad when we got AR. 

I’m a big fan of going bats with these high picks but Hancock is a stud prospect. Hancock coupled with Hall/Rodriguez would give us 3 TOR potential arms for the 2022-23 rotation. Combine those three with the wave of arms in AAA in 2020 and that would give us a good chance at having a legit, AL East, rotation. 

Based on the few snippets I've read, Martin would be my preferred pick. But if he's gone, I would definitely prefer Hancock over Torkelson. The fact that Hancock is a seasoned college arm adds to that argument because it would put him closer to Hall and Rodriguez's timeline, and as we've seen from our disappointing Cavalry days, you can never have too many pitching prospects. 

[7Mo]

56 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Based on the few snippets I've read, Martin would be my preferred pick. But if he's gone, I would definitely prefer Hancock over Torkelson. The fact that Hancock is a seasoned college arm adds to that argument because it would put him closer to Hall and Rodriguez's timeline, and as we've seen from our disappointing Cavalry days, you can never have too many pitching prospects. 

Nothing wrong with favoring Hancock over Torkelson but what if Torkelson could be a league average third baseman? 

A scout from an American League team called Torkelson’s swing a work of art. His power, the scout said, was an easy, breezy fury that can turn fences in any direction into fly-by zones. It was a view shared by a National League scout who especially likes that Torkelson’s swing is short and not the longer version that in the big leagues can be beaten or exploited.

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Torkelson has another advantage, which to a sideline fan might seem trivial but to a scout means everything: age. Torkelson doesn’t turn 21 until next August, almost three months after Hancock, and five months later than Martin.

It means, throughout his competitive life, he has been working against generally older opponents who haven’t beaten up on the kid. Even a few months of difference there will show up on a scout’s notebook or on an analyst’s laptop.

Torkelson has one tactical soft-spot compared with Martin: He’s a first baseman. For now, anyway, and this is where Torkelson’s future intrigues.

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base. Nor did the same scout disagree with those who believe Torkelson might fit in left field, or even right field. He is, the scout said, a corner-position player —infield or outfield, with of course his right-handed throwing arm making third base a preference over first base.

[WalkWithElias]

1 hour ago, 7Mo said:

Nothing wrong with favoring Hancock over Torkelson but what if Torkelson could be a league average third baseman? 

A scout from an American League team called Torkelson’s swing a work of art. His power, the scout said, was an easy, breezy fury that can turn fences in any direction into fly-by zones. It was a view shared by a National League scout who especially likes that Torkelson’s swing is short and not the longer version that in the big leagues can be beaten or exploited.

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Torkelson has another advantage, which to a sideline fan might seem trivial but to a scout means everything: age. Torkelson doesn’t turn 21 until next August, almost three months after Hancock, and five months later than Martin.

It means, throughout his competitive life, he has been working against generally older opponents who haven’t beaten up on the kid. Even a few months of difference there will show up on a scout’s notebook or on an analyst’s laptop.

Torkelson has one tactical soft-spot compared with Martin: He’s a first baseman. For now, anyway, and this is where Torkelson’s future intrigues.

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base. Nor did the same scout disagree with those who believe Torkelson might fit in left field, or even right field. He is, the scout said, a corner-position player —infield or outfield, with of course his right-handed throwing arm making third base a preference over first base.

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability. It can work in short stints, but Torkelson would be expected to have a longterm role on the team. If he were to begin playing 3B regularly this season to improve his draft stock and showed competence, that changes. I just don't want to assume a guy can move to a difficult defensive position without evidence. However, I do think we've seen enough from Mancini that a good enough athlete can learn left field. I do not know how Torkelson's overall athleticism compares to Trey, but most said Trey was a lead-footed, 1B/DH only type and while he would never fool someone into thinking he's a strong defensive corner outfielder, he has been passable. JMO

 

[Number5]

25 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability. It can work in short stints, but Torkelson would be expected to have a longterm role on the team. If he were to begin playing 3B regularly this season to improve his draft stock and showed competence, that changes. I just don't want to assume a guy can move to a difficult defensive position without evidence. However, I do think we've seen enough from Mancini that a good enough athlete can learn left field. I do not know how Torkelson's overall athleticism compares to Trey, but most said Trey was a lead-footed, 1B/DH only type and while he would never fool someone into thinking he's a strong defensive corner outfielder, he has been passable. JMO

 

But first base is hard.

 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

I find it difficult to believe a player pegged to 1B in college can learn to play league-average third at a ML-level. Third base is not someplace a team should bank on hiding a defensive liability.

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

Quote

 

Torkelson played his prep years as a shortstop and third baseman and sits at first base at ASU only because the Sun Devils infield is supreme. As many as three ASU first-rounders are expected to be nabbed next June.

The National League scout said any team drafting Torkelson would be wise to at least explore third base.

 

 

[Luke-OH]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

 

I'm skeptical about Torkelson at 3B, but it is true, Alika Williams and Gage Workman are legit defenders at SS and 3B respectively and Day 1 talents. 

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure you read the piece correctly. It says he's at first because there could be three other first rounders in that same infield. Also says he played SS and 3B in high school. I have no knowledge of his actual abilities at all, but I think the scout is saying that his drafting team shouldn't just assume that he's a defensive liability. 

I know the draft happens in-season, but do these guys actually work out for teams pre-draft? Seems like a good reason to entertain a later draft with a combine so skills like these can be assessed.

 

Colleges will typically have a "pro day" in the fall where scouts come on campus to see a workout. And the college coaches might have numerous conversations with pro scouts about what they've seen in practice. It would be unusual IMO for a guy like Torkelson to "only" work at first base given the number of practices that go into a college year. Guys typically get moved around a lot so the staff knows who they have flexibility with and who they don't if they need to move guys unexpectedly.

Outside of that, because of the timing, I think it'd be unusual for a college player to work out in the spring leading up to the draft but they might have in the fall or winter preceding. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm skeptical about Torkelson at 3B, but it is true, Alika Williams and Gage Workman are legit defenders at SS and 3B respectively and Day 1 talents. 

Do you have an opinion as to whether Torkelson could be an adequate left or right fielder?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

Do you have an opinion as to whether Torkelson could be an adequate left or right fielder?

Haven't paid enough attention to him yet. The body doesn't scream outfielder, he's not going to be fast enough to help you out there. I don't know how well he throws, I've mainly watched him hit when I was watching ASU games for Hunter Bishop. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Haven't paid enough attention to him yet. The body doesn't scream outfielder, he's not going to be fast enough to help you out there. I don't know how well he throws, I've mainly watched him hit when I was watching ASU games for Hunter Bishop. 

Thanks.

Agree or disagree with the following:

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

[Luke-OH]

25 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Thanks.

Agree or disagree with the following:

That same National League scout, familiar with the Pac-12, believes Torkelson could be a better hitter, with demonstrably more power, than Andrew Vaughn, the right-handed masher who last year played for Cal and who was snagged by the White Sox with the 2019 draft’s third overall pick.

Yeah, the raw power is bigger. More raw bat speed as well so the absolute hit ceiling is higher. But if I had to bet who had a better OBP in their career, I'd go Vaughn easy, he has short levers, premium bat control, and excellent pitch recognition/zone judgement. 

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Yeah, the raw power is bigger. More raw bat speed as well so the absolute hit ceiling is higher. But if I had to bet who had a better OBP in their career, I'd go Vaughn easy, he has short levers, premium bat control, and excellent pitch recognition/zone judgement. 

Thanks for the detail in the explanation. Appreciate it.

[ShoelesJoe]

The debate over whether to take Hancock or Torkelson (assuming there's no shake up at the top of the draft class, and that Martin goes #1 to the Tigers) is interesting. The player with more potential (Hancock) is also the player who is more likely to crash and burn. The guy with the lower ceiling (Torkelson) will probably have a better chance to reach that ceiling. Such a conundrum.

Since 1991 the Orioles have drafted 21 pitchers before the second round, and I believe the best of the lot was Kevin Gausman and his 10 WAR in 6 seasons as an Oriole.  Most of those 21 never pitched an inning at the major league level. That's a miserable rate of success, and a prime reason the Orioles have been bottom dwellers for most of that time. Somebody stated previously in this thread that the failure of our vaunted "Cavalry" back in the day proved that you can never have enough pitching. IMO it proved the exact opposite: drafting a lot of pitching (especially at the top of the draft) is a fool's game. Too many young pitchers get hurt and/or fail to provide meaningful value at the major league level for a team in the Orioles' present position to gamble on that choice. 

Just pulling numbers and comparisons out of thin air for the purpose of discussion -- let's say the team calculates that Hancock has a 50% chance of being Beau Hale , a 40% chance of being Dylan Bundy, and a 10% chance of being Gerrit Cole. While Torkelson has a 30% chance of being Billy Rowell, a 40% chance of being Trey Mancini, and a 30% chance of being Paul Konerko. Who do you take?

In that scenario I take the position player every time.