An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

[TINSTAAPP]

I want nothing to do with Blaze Jordan. The last thing the O's need is another 1B/DH type with questionable defensive skills. Would much rather have Austin Martin or Pete Crow-Armstrong if the O's end up not getting Hancock.

[sportsfan8703]

Could Torkelson play LF?

[Luke-OH]

12 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Could Torkelson play LF?

Maybe at a Mancini level, but he's not going to be good out there. 

[Greg Pappas]

@Luke-OH would you take a look at the data gathered by PerfectGame for these two HS OF prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dylan Crews?  In particular I'd like to point you to the Diamond Kinetics section for each player.  Max Barrel Speed,  Impact Momentum, and Max Acceleration seem quite interesting and I'm curious if the data appears to you to show that Crews has a much quicker and impactful bat?  More than anything I'd like to get your take on how much 'weight' you give this sort of information. Is it useful? Seems so, from someone new to reviewing such things. Thank you. 

[OregonBird]

On 7/13/2019 at 9:31 AM, sevastras said:

I would keep an eye on Mick Abel.  Upper 90's FB, flashes plus slider, command coming around and working on a changeup but hard throwing HS all need to work on that.  It will be interesting to see how much weight he adds to his frame this fall/winter and how he progresses next spring. 

I’ve seen Mick against our local HS and at my son’s baseball sacademy.  Kid throws easy gas and a humble kid.  

[Greg Pappas]

On 8/5/2019 at 8:17 AM, TINSTAAPP said:

I want nothing to do with Blaze Jordan. The last thing the O's need is another 1B/DH type with questionable defensive skills. Would much rather have Austin Martin or Pete Crow-Armstrong if the O's end up not getting Hancock.

I get your concerns, but I'd be careful to look too narrowly at a 16-year old that had been rated as the early favorite for the 2021 #1 pick. Jordan has regularly played against older competition and excelled. He may wind up at 1B, though his defense at third base has improved. His bat seems very special, however... so while it's still too early to gauge how this will all play out, I wouldn't dismiss the idea that Jordan could become a player we consider as the draft gets closer.

Here is a report from PerfectGame... 
 

Quote

LATEST PG SHOWCASE REPORT
2019 NATIONAL SHOWCASE  
Blaze Jordan is a 2020 1B/3B with a 6-2 218 lb. frame from Southaven, MS who attends DeSoto Central. Strong athletic build, looks like he's firmed up and is slimmer than his listed size. Changed body has improved his athleticism and enabled him to potentially play third base at the next level, showed good hands at third base and makes on line accurate throws, charged the ball cleanly with balance, still adjusting to making lower slot throws after growing up at first base. 6.90 runner. Right handed hitter, has huge power that plays in games, big strength at the ball, has cut down his lower half movement and shortened his swing somewhat, handled the barrel well and went 4-4 during the games while using the entire field. Reclassified from the 2021 class this spring and had been the #1 ranked player in that class since his freshman year. Potential elite level hitter with a long track record. Good student, verbal commitment to Mississippi State. Named to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

 

[Luke-OH]

14 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

@Luke-OH would you take a look at the data gathered by PerfectGame for these two HS OF prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dylan Crews?  In particular I'd like to point you to the Diamond Kinetics section for each player.  Max Barrel Speed,  Impact Momentum, and Max Acceleration seem quite interesting and I'm curious if the data appears to you to show that Crews has a much quicker and impactful bat?  More than anything I'd like to get your take on how much 'weight' you give this sort of information. Is it useful? Seems so, from someone new to reviewing such things. Thank you. 

It’s probably useful, but I don’t know enough about it to make any assessments using it. I see people on Twitter all the time who obviously don’t know anything about it, quoting the numbers from PG as a reason for liking the player.

Is it game data or BP or off a tee. What are the correlations between these values and exit velocity production or swing and miss? I’m sure someone has figured out what’s important and what’s noise and can use it to target players, but I’m definitely not one of those people.

[Ruzious]

On 8/9/2019 at 10:39 AM, Greg Pappas said:

I get your concerns, but I'd be careful to look too narrowly at a 16-year old that had been rated as the early favorite for the 2021 #1 pick. Jordan has regularly played against older competition and excelled. He may wind up at 1B, though his defense at third base has improved. His bat seems very special, however... so while it's still too early to gauge how this will all play out, I wouldn't dismiss the idea that Jordan could become a player we consider as the draft gets closer.

Here is a report from PerfectGame... 
 

 

Watching the videos of him, he looks more like 25 than 16.  It's not just his size; it's his presence.  What a great natural power swing.  If they think he can keep his weight down, I'd assume he's in the discussion for the #1 pick.  Then again, what do I know - I am no scout.  

[Il BuonO]

This kid has a compact, repeatable delivery. Armside run on the FB, with average command and good depth and break with the slider.

 

[Il BuonO]

On 8/9/2019 at 9:39 AM, Greg Pappas said:

I get your concerns, but I'd be careful to look too narrowly at a 16-year old that had been rated as the early favorite for the 2021 #1 pick. Jordan has regularly played against older competition and excelled. He may wind up at 1B, though his defense at third base has improved. His bat seems very special, however... so while it's still too early to gauge how this will all play out, I wouldn't dismiss the idea that Jordan could become a player we consider as the draft gets closer.

Here is a report from PerfectGame... 

Man, he’s doughy. I’m not sure I see what all the hype is about.

[Il BuonO]

On 6/14/2019 at 11:27 PM, Luke-OH said:

I don’t think you can have a “THE #1 guy” at this point but Hancock is definitely one of if not the top prospect as of today.

I do see a couple things that concern me with Hancock. I’ve watched significant video and especially from the home plate camera looking out at the mound (granted, there’s much more video available of him from behind the mound) he has an almost violent delivery and plenty of recoil with his arm upon release. 

Now, obviously his stuff is plus, but it’s not the lowest risk mechanics I’ve seen.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

I do see a couple things that concern me with Hancock. I’ve watched significant video and especially from the home plate camera looking out at the mound (granted, there’s much more video available of him from behind the mound) he has an almost violent delivery and plenty of recoil with his arm upon release. 

Now, obviously his stuff is plus, but it’s not the lowest risk mechanics I’ve seen.

His finish is very torso driven, more so the lead leg braking, that's not ideal, but the arm moves well, the action and timing are solid. It'd be more of a concern to me if he didn't have present command and ability to hold his stuff. But despite the effort, he already does those things at a high level. Now, in general, I'd much rather take a position player at the top of the draft if there is a suitable candidate. 

5 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Man, he’s doughy. I’m not sure I see what all the hype is about.

I don't see it either. How is he better than Tristan Casas who went 26th in 2018.

[Luke-OH]

@Il BuonO You know whose mechanics I love, JT Ginn, he's not a top of the draft guy, but man does that guy move well. There is some effort on the finish, but the position he puts his arm in on foot-strike is textbook. 

The two college arms that I think are darkhorses to ascend to the top of the pitching class are Max Meyer and CJ Van Eyk. Meyer has an excellent combination of stuff and feel, just needs to show he can handle a full season of starting, he's got the body and mechanics for it. Van Eyk has absurd arm speed, if he figures out how to transfer his weight better he'll sit 98, with the potential for two plus secondaries (CB/CH). 

Oh, and if Reid Detmers adds a couple ticks, he's right in it too. With that command and curveball, if he's sitting 93-94, that's a hard thing to pass up.

[Il BuonO]

9 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

@Il BuonO You know whose mechanics I love, JT Ginn, he's not a top of the draft guy, but man does that guy move well. There is some effort on the finish, but the position he puts his arm in on foot-strike is textbook. 

The two college arms that I think are darkhorses to ascend to the top of the pitching class are Max Meyer and CJ Van Eyk. Meyer has an excellent combination of stuff and feel, just needs to show he can handle a full season of starting, he's got the body and mechanics for it. Van Eyk has absurd arm speed, if he figures out how to transfer his weight better he'll sit 98, with the potential for two plus secondaries (CB/CH). 

Oh, and if Reid Detmers adds a couple ticks, he's right in it too. With that command and curveball, if he's sitting 93-94, that's a hard thing to pass up.

Yeah, I like Von Eyk. You’re right about transferring weight to add velocity. I might have him drop a little more at foot strike, but he’s close already. The CU and CH look like plus pitches. Love the arm speed you mention at the same rate when he throws the CH.

I like that Detmers has already been on the big stage with Team USA. I think his superior command is linked to the poise he displays on the mound. A couple added ticks definitely increases his profile.

I like the HS kid, Abel, too. My philosophy on HS picks has evolved somewhat. So, not sure I’m willing to roll the dice on one as easily unless they’re advanced.

[Il BuonO]

@Luke-OH Ginn has that powerful lower body build for a pitcher I love. Lot of drive, but I would like to see more hip rotation at foot strike. He has to overcompensate with his upper body to get over his front foot. But you’re right, moves well with a compact, repeatable delivery.

Man, great armside run with the FB and those secondaries look good already.

Meyer gathers his lead leg (reminds me of a young Zack Greinke) prior to his drive. Comes out of his delivery a bit at the end, but for a negligible effect. Slider is nasty-good depth and break.

Any thoughts on the HS kid, Abel?