A look at every Orioles contract of $20 mm+

[Frobby]

I was fuming the other day about the money the O’s are wasting on Davis, Cobb and Trumbo, and decided to catalogue every deal the O’s have ever done for more than $20 mm.     I’ve listed them below, in declining contract value order, with some WAR valuations and comments.    There have been a few wins, but overall, it is not a pretty picture.    (If I’ve forgotten anyone, let me know.)

 

Chris Davis (2016-22): 7 years, $161 mm ($42 mm deferred)

rWAR: -0.5 (3.076 seasons)

fWAR: -1.3 (3.076 seasons)

Fangraphs value: -$9.0 mm (3.076 seasons)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$89.5 mm (3.076 seasons)

Comment:  Quite arguably, the worst contract of all time.   The -$89.5 mm only accounts for the first half of the contract.    If you assume (as I do) that he will never again generate positive WAR and the O’s won’t be able to buy him out, the negative value goes to $170 mm or more.   And it was a bad deal the day the ink was dry, though nobody knew it would be this bad.

 

Adam Jones (2013-18): 6 years, $85.5 mm

rWAR: 17.0 mm

fWAR: 17.2 mm

Fangraphs value: $133.4 mm

Pre-FA discount: -$7.2 mm

Net Fangraphs value: $126.2 mm

Fangraphs surplus net value: $41.1 mm 

Comment:  There’s a good case that this is the best long-term deal the O’s ever did.   This deal was signed in May 2012, just as Jones was having his first really good season.   The “Pre-FA discount” shown above accounts for the fact that Jones would not have been a free agent in 2013, so he would not have earned a FA-level salary that year.   The formula I applied was a discount of 20% for his Arb 3 year.   Jones went on to be a key leader and player for a team that went to the playoffs 3 times in 5 years.

 

Miguel Tejada (2004-09): 6 years, $72 mm

rWAR: 23.9 (20.1 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 21.8 (17.5 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs value: $107.7 mm ($81.1 mm as an Oriole)

Fangraphs surplus value: $35.7 mm ($38.7 mm as an Oriole)

Comment:   By the numbers, this was almost as good a deal as the Jones deal, and it was pretty obvious the day we signed Tejada that we’d gotten him at a very good price.    At the same time, Tejada’s role in the “B-12 episode” in 2005 is a black mark, and ultimately we traded him away.   Still, we got decent value in that trade, and on balance, the Tejada signing was a very good one.

 

Nick Markakis (2009-14): 6 years, $66 mm

rWAR: 11.6

fWAR: 11.1

Fangraphs value: $75.3 mm

Pre-FA discount: -$16.6 mm

Net Fangraphs value: $58.7 mm

Deficit in Fangraphs net value: -$7.3 mm

This deal was signed before Markakis’ Arb-1 season, and so the value he generated in his three arb seasons is discounted by 60, 40 and 20% in my net value calculation.    By that measure, this deal was a mild loser.   However, I doubt most fans regret this deal, as Markakis was a quiet leader by example and a steadying presence in the lineup.    He never became the star player he seemed to be developing into when this deal was made, but he was a very solid pro who posted every day.

 

Albert Belle (1999-2003): 5 years, $65 mm

rWAR: 4.0

fWAR: 4.5

Comment:   Fangraphs only began putting a dollar value on WAR in 2002, the year after the ARod and Jeter contracts were signed.   That value was $4 mm/WAR for 2002, and you can be sure it was significantly lower before that.    By any measure, the Belle deal was a big loser for the O’s, as his injuries limited him to two seasons.    Apparently insurance defrayed some of the cost, but in any event, Belle came nowhere near earning his contract.

 

Alex Cobb (2018-21): 4 years, $57 mm

rWAR: 0.6 (2 seasons)

fWAR: 0.8 (2 seasons)

Fangraphs value: $6.7 mm (2 seasons)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$21.3 mm (2 seasons)

Comment:  Cobb is out for the rest of this season, so we can look at his value and cost over two years even though there is a half-season to play.   This contract is almost sure to end up underwater even if Cobb is healthy the next two years, and even if he was decent, his contract no longer serves a purpose on this rebuilding team.   Unfortunately, his injuries have destroyed any trade value for now, even if we are willing to eat some salary.    Better luck next year!

 

Ubaldo Jimenez (2014-17): 4 years, $50 mm

rWAR: 0.5

fWAR: 4.5

Fangraphs value: $36.4 mm

Fangraphs deficit in value: $13.6 mm

Comment:  If you ever want an indictment of fWAR, this is it!    Jimenez was terrible for 3 of his 4 seasons with us, and just OK the other season (2015).   He had several good games, but overall was a huge disappointment.     Give me the rWAR valuation here every day and twice on Sundays.

 

JJ Hardy (2015-17): 3 years, $40 mm

rWAR: 1.7

fWAR: 1.4

Fangraphs value: $11.4 mm

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$28.6 mm

Comment:  Hardy seemingly started getting old the day he signed this deal.   He had injuries all three seasons, particularly in 2015 and 2017, and by his final year was a shadow of his former self on both sides of the ball.    He did manage a relatively healthy and productive 2016, and not coincidentally, the O’s made the wild card that year.

 

Brian Roberts (2010-13): 4 years, $40 mm

rWAR: 1.0

fWAR: 1.6

Fangraphs value: $10.6 mm

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$29.4 mm

Comment:  This deal covered four free agent seasons and was signed a full year before it took effect, following a winter in which Roberts almost was traded to the Cubs.   Roberts had an excellent 2009 (still under his prior contract) after signing this deal, but then a series of injuries and a serious, self-induced concussion kept Roberts off the field for the vast majority of his contract.   

 

Mark Trumbo (2017-19): 3 years, $37.5 mm

rWAR: -0.2 (2.076 seasons)

fWAR: -0.9 (2.076 seasons)

Fangraphs value: -$7.2 mm (2.076 seasons)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$44.7 mm (2.076 seasons)

Comment:  This deal was signed after Trumbo’s 47 HR season that was a key component of the 2016 wild card run.   Unfortunately, Trumbo was awful in 2017, had a half-decent 2018 cut short by injuries, and has missed all of 2019 so far.   Another guy we might have hoped to trade for some salary relief this year but injuries took away any hypothetical chance of doing that.

 

Scott Erickson (1999-03): 5 years, $31.5 mm

rWAR: 0.1

fWAR: 2.8

Comment:  Another deal done before Fangraphs started putting a dollar value on WAR, but easily $20mm+ underwater.    Erickson missed 2 of the 5 seasons with injuries, and performed poorly in the others.    Plus, the deal annoyed Mussina, who had signed a 3-year deal the year before because Angelos told him he didn’t believe in giving pitchers deals longer than 3 years.

 

Darren O’Day (2016-19): 4 years, $31 mm

rWAR: 1.9 (3.076 seasons)

fWAR: 1.2 (3.076 seasons)

Fangraphs value: $9.9 mm (3.076 seasons)

Fangraphs deficit: -$21.1 mm (3.076 seasons)(-$7.4 mm as an Oriole)

Comment:  Another guy who seemingly got old the minute the ink was dry on his deal.    O’Day went from being a healthy, consistently top set-up guy to being oft-injured and decent but inconsistent when healthy.    While injured in 2018, he was traded as part of the Gausman deal, relieving the Orioles of about $13.7 in current salary and deferred payments, but probably significantly dampening the return for Gausman.   A lot of people were upset by that at the time, but with O’Day still on the shelf today and Gausman not performing well at the moment, it doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did a year ago.

 

Cal Ripken (1993-97): 5 years, $30.5 mm

rWAR: 17.3

fWAR: 17.8

Comment:    This deal was signed about 6 weeks before Cal was due to become a free agent, and at the time, was the biggest deal in baseball history.    Cal was very good but not great the next five years, and in hindsight you probably could say it was a mild overpay  considering the FA prices at the time, if all you looked at was on the field production.   But when you consider Cal’s huge fan appeal, and the publicity generated as Cal chased and broke Lou Gehrig’s streak, there’s little doubt that Cal was worth every penny.

 

Rafael Palmeiro (1994-98): 5 years, $30 mm

rWAR: 23.4

fWAR: 24.9

Comment:  A comparison between Raffy’s deal and Cal’s one year earlier shows that Raffy was the better on-the-field value.    He produced all five years covered by the contract at a high level, and the O’s made the playoffs twice during that run.    Certainly a solid winner of a contract.

 

Brady Anderson (1998-2002): 5 years, $29.5 mm

rWAR: 8.8 (8.9 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 6.8 (7.2 as an Oriole)

Comment:  Signed a full season after his big 50-homer year, contrary to popular belief.   Brady was productive for a couple years of this deal but fell off a cliff as it progressed, causing the O’s to release him with a full season left on the contract.    Probably $10 mm underwater at the prices at the time.

 

David Segui (2001-04): 4 years, $27.8 mm

rWAR: 2.4

fWAR: 1.9

Comment:  Segui hit pretty well when he actually played, but he was continuously hurt.   Fangraphs valued his final 3 seasons at $700 k; they didn’t do valuations in 2001 but he arguably was worth $5-7 mm that year based on the 2002 valuation.    So, this one was $20 mm underwater.

 

Ramon Hernandez (2006-09): 4 years, $26.5 mm

rWAR: 6.4 (7.3 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 6.4 (6.4 as an Orioles)

Fangraphs value: $32.9 mm ($32.7 mm as an Oriole)

Fangraphs surplus value: $6.4 mm ($6.2 mm as an Oriole)

Comment:   The O’s signed Hernandez even though Javy Lopez had a year to go on his deal, because it was apparent that Lopez had lost his defensive skills.   Hernandez had an excellent first year with the O’s, but went downhill from there.    With the O’s expecting Matt Wieters’ arrival in 2009, they traded Hernandez after the 2008 season for Ryan Freel, Brandon Waring and Justin Turner.    That could have turned out well if the O’s had recognized the potential of Turner.

 

 

Melvin Mora (2007-09): 3 years, $25 mm

rWAR: 4.0

fWAR: 5.6

Fangraphs value: $33.0 mm

Fangraphs surplus value: $8.0 mm

Comment:  This deal was signed shortly after the 2006 season began, after terrific 2004-05 seasons by Mora under a very favorable contract.    He also had played a key role in calming down Miguel Tejada over the winter, after Tejada briefly demanded a traded.    Mora started slipping a bit in 2006 after signing the deal, was OK in 2007-08, and slid badly in the final year of the deal.   As I recall, Fangraphs valued this as a mild loser at the time.   But later, Fangraphs re-jiggered its WAR calculations and now it comes out on the positive side.   I’d basically call it a break-even deal.

 

Sidney Ponson (2004-06): 3 years, $22.5 mm

rWAR: -0.7 (0.1 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 4.5 (4.0 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs value: $19.6 mm ($17.1 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$2.9 mm (-$5.4 mm as an Oriole)

Comment:   Another case where I agree with rWAR and think fWAR is ridiculous.    After signing his contract, Ponson came to camp fat as a whale, then spent the following offseason getting thrown into jail for punching a judge.    He got caught for drunk driving that summer and the O’s released him and tried to void his contract, a move that apparently failed in the end.

 

Javy Lopez (2004-06): 3 years, $22.5 mm

rWAR: 6.3 (6.9 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 6.1 (est. 6.1 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs value: $21.1 mm (est. $26.6 mm as an Oriole)

Comment: Lopez went from well above average to average to terrible in his 2.7 years in Baltimore.   When we signed him, we were trying to play Lopez and Ivan Rodriguez against each other in negotiations, as if they were equal players.   Big mistake.

 

JJ Hardy (2012-14): 3 years, $22.5 mm

rWAR: 10.3

fWAR: 8.6

Fangraphs value: $62.0 mm

Fangraphs surplus value: $39.5 mm

Comment: One of Andy MacPhail's parting gifts to the Orioles, signed in the second half of 2011.    This deal  was better than the 2015-17 deal was bad, as Hardy anchored the great defenses that led the O's to two playoff berths, including their one division title in the last 20 years.

 

Yovani Gallardo (2016-17): 2 years, $22 mm

rWAR: -0.3 (0.1 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 0.7 (0.6 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs value: $6.0 mm ($5.0 mm as an Oriole)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$16.0 mm (-$4.0 mm as an Oriole)

Comment: The O’s initially signed Gallardo to a 3-year deal, but following a physical the deal was restructured as 2 years plus an option.    Good move.    After the 2016 season, the O’s were able to unload Gallardo’s remaining guaranteed year in a trade for Seth Smith.

 

Mike Mussina (1998-2000): 3 years, $20.1 mm

rWAR: 15.0

fWAR: 17.5

Comment: This deal was arguably too good, as it made the Player’s Association angry and then Moose got alienated when Angelos lowballed him in the next round of contract negotiations.   Mussina was probably worth 2-3 times what he got paid in his 1998-2000 contract.

 

Aubrey Huff (2007-09): 3 years, $20 mm

rWAR: 2.7 (3.5 as an Oriole)

fWAR: 2.8 (est. 3.6 as an Oriole)

Fangraphs value: $15.8 mm (est. $20 mm as an Oriole)

Fangraphs deficit in value: -$4.2 mm (est. $1 mm surplus as an Oriole)

Comment: Almost all the value of this deal came in the 2008 season.    Huff had a terrible 2009, and was traded at the waiver deadline to Detroit, where he was even worse.

 

For me the big winners were Jones, Tejada, Ripken, Palmeiro, Hardy I and Mussina.  The big losers were Davis, Belle, Cobb, Jimenez, Roberts, Hardy II, Trumbo, Erickson, O'Day, Anderson, Segui, Ponson, and Gallardo (though we really minimized that damage by trading him).  I put Markakis, Mora, Lopez, Hernandez and Huff in the roughly break even category.    So, the bad deals outnumber the good ones by about 2:1, and the Davis deal probably outweighs all the good ones all by itself.

 

[tntoriole]

Outstanding post!  Agree and have to think ME will seldom make the big loser choices. 

[Can_of_corn]

It looks like every extension they did before a player would have hit FA for the first time worked out right?

[Aristotelian]

It appears those Fangraphs value numbers are not inflation adjusted for the older ones so you have to do some back of napkin math to compare to the newer ones. Appears to me that the Mussina deal blows them all out of the water, followed probably by Tejada and Jones.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It appears those Fangraphs value numbers are not inflation adjusted for the older ones so you have to do some back of napkin math to compare to the newer ones. Appears to me that the Mussina deal blows them all out of the water, followed probably by Tejada and Jones.

Fangraphs $/WAR increased over time from 2002 through maybe 2015, and has kind of stalled the last 3-4 years.    Of course, a deal that was $20 mm surplus in 2000 is much more valuable, in proportion to overall payroll, to a deal that is $20 mm surplus today.      Certainly the Mussina deal was the best in terms of surplus per year compared to team payroll.   Too bad it wasn’t about 7 years longer.