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I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

AceKing

By AceKing
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Luke-OH
Luke-OH

I don’t have access to the algorithm used to make the projections obviously, but I can give you the basics. BTW, I noted in another post that the projection likely misses the boost he apparently gets

theocean
theocean

No matter what happens with Villar, no matter what we disagree about - I just want everyone to know that you all are worth 4 WAR in my heart.

AceKing
AceKing

Just a fan, man, I just want something fun to watch. My parents are both very sick, and they love watching the Orioles, and I want something fun for them to watch.  They have already traded away

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wildbillhiccup Hangout Grand Counsel

wildbillhiccup

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Pretty wild. Yeah, Moustakas projects better in 2020, but that’s a lot of risk for a little 2020 bump, they have to be pretty confident in their place on the win curve.

Agreed, but it's not the first head scratcher move made by the Reds. They don't seem to ever have a long term vision for the team. 

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luismatos4prez All-Star

luismatos4prez

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weams said:

This is what the owners want to have. 

You think most owners are more businessman than baseball fan? 

It's an interesting question. If you offered the Sons (or another owner) these two choices for the 2020s, which one would they pick:

a) Highest profit in the league, huge growth in franchise value, 0 playoff appearances

b) Lowest profit in the league, 2 World Series championships

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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14 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

You think most owners are more businessman than baseball fan? 

It's an interesting question. If you offered the Sons (or another owner) these two choices for the 2020s, which one would they pick:

a) Highest profit in the league, huge growth in franchise value, 0 playoff appearances

b) Lowest profit in the league, 2 World Series championships

I wonder what the difference is between the lowest profit and the highest profit?

Was 2016 one of the years the Orioles "lost" money?

The Phillies made 88M in 2016 (Forbes).  If the difference between first and 30th is 50 million a year I'm guessing a lot of team owners would rather have a half a billion dollars.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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4 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

I see it more like deciding whether or not to give a pending free agent a qualifying offer. For Villar, the QO is around $10 million. Is that a good investment for the team? I don't think so, especially if no one else is willing to pay him that. Should have made the same decision with Wieters.

But Wieters was no producing anymore and his QO was an absurd $17 million. Duquette didn't think he would take that offer and become a free agent but Wieters was smart enough to take it. Villar is coming off a 4-win season at 28-years of age. Big difference.

I think there are teams willing to pay Villar $7-10 million a year but they are not going to give up talent and then pay him that when they know the Orioles are just going to release him and then they can just sign him. I feel like the Orioles showed their cards a little too early and now are trying a last ditch effort to get teams to pony up now that teams can just select him off waivers and give up nothing.

 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
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18 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

You think most owners are more businessman than baseball fan? 

It's an interesting question. If you offered the Sons (or another owner) these two choices for the 2020s, which one would they pick:

a) Highest profit in the league, huge growth in franchise value, 0 playoff appearances

b) Lowest profit in the league, 2 World Series championships

All owners admire the Rays organization.  And the Yankees won no titles in the 10s. 

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, Tony-OH said:

But Wieters was no producing anymore and his QO was an absurd $17 million. Duquette didn't think he would take that offer and become a free agent but Wieters was smart enough to take it. Villar is coming off a 4-win season at 28-years of age. Big difference.

I think there are teams willing to pay Villar $7-10 million a year but they are not going to give up talent and then pay him that when they know the Orioles are just going to release him and then they can just sign him. I feel like the Orioles showed their cards a little too early and now are trying a last ditch effort to get teams to pony up now that teams can just select him off waivers and give up nothing.

 

How much talent do you think they would have had to give up at the end of the day?  I think he would have accepted very little in the last day or so.

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

We made the playoffs by the skin of our teeth in 2016.    I’d say we might not have made it without Wieters, who had a ton of clutch hits that year.   I’m happy we gave him that QO.    And remember, the reason we did it was that we would have gotten draft pick compensation if he walked.    To that point, no player had ever accepted a QO.    Many were surprised when he took it.   

I'd argue that we might have made it more easily if Buck would have played the clearly better that year Joseph over Wieters more.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

But Wieters was no producing anymore and his QO was an absurd $17 million. Duquette didn't think he would take that offer and become a free agent but Wieters was smart enough to take it. Villar is coming off a 4-win season at 28-years of age. Big difference.

I think there are teams willing to pay Villar $7-10 million a year but they are not going to give up talent and then pay him that when they know the Orioles are just going to release him and then they can just sign him. I feel like the Orioles showed their cards a little too early and now are trying a last ditch effort to get teams to pony up now that teams can just select him off waivers and give up nothing.

 

You mean when they were trying to trade him at the deadline and got no offers?  I agree.that no one would trade for him based on the situation. But evidently no one claimed him either. Now they will have to give a multi year deal perhaps. The league did not value him for some reason. 

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