Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[Chavez Ravine]

1 hour ago, weams said:

I disagree. He would not have significant value even if he produced at the level of 2019. He might bring back a prospect. That prospect might pan out. A lot of variables. No sure thing either way. You could potential sign a three million dollar free agent that might bring back more of a return. 

Or spend a bit more and try to grab and flip a pitcher with chronic blister issues, wrongly trending peripherals, or is just old. The potential return on that sort of arbitrage seems bigger. Granted, we had Villar in the hand.

[POR]

9 hours ago, WillyM said:

When the Orioles traded Cashner, he was 9-3 for a team that had lost more than twice as many games as it had won.  I knew that the Orioles were expected to start trading productive veterans for prospects, but I was sort of hoping that a guy as productive as Cashner could be traded for the kind of players who might be major league ready within a year or two - or three at the most.  It was disappointing to see Cashner traded for guys who are probably at least four to six years from being able to contribute at the major league level.

 

I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers.

The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors,  Cashner  pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him.  It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary.  That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020.  It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

Maybe they'll use some of the savings as a bonus to induce Mountcastle to sign a guaranteed deal that would extend beyond his arb years and allow them to bring him up on opening day (since there would no longer be any "clock" issues). 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Or spend a bit more and try to grab and flip a pitcher with chronic blister issues, wrongly trending peripherals, or is just old. The potential return on that sort of arbitrage seems bigger. Granted, we had Villar in the hand.

I  think the likelihood that Villar will far outperform any free agent that you could get for $3 million is nearly 100%. Hitting on a free agent that did would be like winning the Powerball

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe they'll use some of the savings as a bonus to induce Mountcastle to sign a guaranteed deal that would extend beyond his arb years and allow them to bring him up on opening day (since there would no longer be any "clock" issues). 

Not impossible ,,,,, But until you see this type of behavior from Elias I wouldn't count on or expect it

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, POR said:

 That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

 

 

 

4 years*

[weams]

2 hours ago, POR said:

I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers.

The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors,  Cashner  pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him.  It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary.  That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020.  It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.

 

 

Yes.

[TonySoprano]

Villar had a 3.9 WAR season in 2016 and followed it with 0.1 in 2017 and 1.4 in 2018.  No one can say with certainty which Villar will appear in 2020.  That being said, it's pitiful that the decision is made on the basis of about $5M.   Also, this talk of the money being banked for a later date, is speculation.  The Orioles have repeatedly talked about tying payroll to attendance, and it's reasonable to assume that will be down again in 2020.

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Villar had a 3.9 WAR season in 2016 and followed it with 0.1 in 2017 and 1.4 in 2018.  No one can say with certainty which Villar will appear in 2020.  That being said, it's pitiful that the decision is made on the basis of about $5M.   Also, this talk of the money being banked for a later date, is speculation.  The Orioles have repeatedly talked about tying payroll to attendance, and it's reasonable to assume that will be down again in 2020.

Fact 

Villar's WAR

2016 3.9 Brewers

2017. 0.1 Brewers

2018 1.4 Brewers

            1.3 Orioles.         = 2.7

2019  4.0 Orioles

I think 2017 was clearly the anomaly. 

I think it's safe to expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark of his 3 year average of 3.5.

[mdbdotcom]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Fact 

Villar's WAR

2016 3.9 Brewers

2017. 0.1 Brewers

2018 1.4 Brewers

            1.3 Orioles.         = 2.7

2019  4.0 Orioles

I think 2017 was clearly the anomaly. 

I think it's safe to expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark of his 3 year average of 3.5.

His four-year average is 2.675. That seems safer. Can't just throw out the anomalies. 

[Roll Tide]

Just now, mdbdotcom said:

His four-year average is 2.675. That seems safer. Can't just throw out the anomalies. 

He had a back injury but whatever

[mdbdotcom]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He had a back injury but whatever

Could have one next year, too. Back injuries rarely go away for good.

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Could have one next year, too. Back injuries rarely go away for good.

I guess anything is possible.

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I guess anything is possible.

They can't ignore injury history.

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They can't ignore injury history.

It was 3 seasons ago. Depending on the actual issue, if he tried to play through it, etc. Its a lot safer bet because he was 26 ...