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Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

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TonySoprano Hangout Grand Counsel

TonySoprano

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The Orioles aren’t bringing back Villar because he is too expensive for a rebuilding team that lost 108 games in 2019. So, the Orioles sent him to the Marlins, a rebuilding team that lost 105 games in 2019. The Marlins aren’t winning in 2020 either, not in that division.

It’s a fair question to consider: How come the awful Marlins are willing to pay for Villar and the Orioles aren’t? I’m sure there are various reasons — on both sides. But that certainly doesn’t soften the blow for the dwindling number of season ticket holders who want to see some talent in home uniforms at Camden Yards, are told to be patient and then watch as one of the most talented Orioles players leaves for another bad team willing to pay him. Especially when the Orioles don’t have an obvious replacement for Villar in the middle infield or lineup.

 

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Tony-OH
Tony-OH

Don't know much about the guy they got in return besides his numbers, but a 14th round 22-year senior draftee who will pitch at 23 next year and has never pitched above the NY Penn League is the defin

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Yeah, but they really didn't. Billy Beane said it best, I can't find the quote.  But it's something along the lines of "If you're not competing, you're rebuilding." I can't do the quote justice b

Frobby
Frobby

Nobody wonders why attendance is down right now.   It was a point of useful discussion in 2016-17.    Since then, the equation is simple: losing —> lower attendance.    And guess what?   It will co

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Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

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10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Easily more than Villar and it’s less of a financial risk. 

Well consering that Villar brought back what he did, I would hope so, but Bundy is a 5th starter right now who will be paid around $5.7 million. How much return will that be worth if he continues to pitch like he has? I doubt they are getting much more.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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4 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Maybe.  I'm fine with trading your veterans away for prospects, going with young players and taking your lumps for a few years, and getting high draft picks is part of the benefit of this strategy.  But for some reason I draw the line at "let's give away a good player for nothing just so we can save some money and lose more games to get a better draft pick."  To me there's a fine line between rebuilding and fan abuse, and this trade crossed the line for me.  

I also think there is some obligation to the game of major league baseball in general to put some effort in fielding a major league quality team.  

The league has to make changes with the next CBA to make sure teams are more competitive.  To me the Orioles have crossed a line of what is right and wrong and  in general principals of morality. 

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oriole Veteran All-Star

oriole

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

I also think there is some obligation to the game of major league baseball in general to put some effort in fielding a major league quality team.  

The league has to make changes with the next CBA to make sure teams are more competitive.  To me the Orioles have crossed a line of what is right and wrong and  in general principals of morality. 

I think that “crossed line” can be moved depending on the context. The Yankees and Red Sox have crossed lines by spending so much more than other teams in their division. The Dodgers cross lines all the time by flexing financial might to take bad players on bad contracts just because they can and it helps their return. The O’s are just playing the game as it has evolved and they’re not the first nor last to do it. It’s saddening an disappointing but moves like these are going to be more and more commonplace without some restructuring of how the league designs a competitive environment. 

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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35 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

So the O's should just give away good players for nothing, because they aren't going to make the playoffs next year?  As a fan, why do I care whether the O's have a cheap payroll?  This is fan abuse, pure and simple.

Well the market always wins.  

And you should care about the payroll if you care about the future of the team.  You have a funny definition of fan abuse, my definition includes Chris Davis.  

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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15 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

 

That's a fine comparison between the Orioles and the Marlins.  However one is being run by an Ivy League grad, the other is being run by a former Yankees shortstop who's got a penchant for banging supermodels and making bad baseball moves.  

Now I know who I'd rather hang out with in South Beach but I also know who'd I'd rather have lead building my baseball team.  Just because the Marlins are willing to take on that type of a contract doesn't mean it's a smart move.

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well consering that Villar brought back what he did, I would hope so, but Bundy is a 5th starter right now who will be paid around $5.7 million. How much return will that be worth if he continues to pitch like he has? I doubt they are getting much more.

I had estimated Bundy conservatively at 12M in surplus based on Steamer projections and a basic aging/arb estimate, Villar was at about 4.5M with the same methodology. Now this is using a linear $/WAR calculation, which isn’t the correct way to do it and the 4.5M was on the high side apparently. 

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theocean Major Leaguer

theocean

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35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's a fine comparison between the Orioles and the Marlins.  However one is being run by an Ivy League grad, the other is being run by a former Yankees shortstop who's got a penchant for banging supermodels and making bad baseball moves.  

Now I know who I'd rather hang out with in South Beach but I also know who'd I'd rather have lead building my baseball team.  Just because the Marlins are willing to take on that type of a contract doesn't mean it's a smart move.

I think we all need to stop acting like going to an Ivy League school makes someone have super powers. 

First and foremost, it just means that your family has enough money for you to go to a really expensive school.

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Luke-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Luke-OH

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10 minutes ago, theocean said:

I think we all need to stop acting like going to an Ivy League school makes someone have super powers. 

First and foremost, it just means that your family has enough money for you to go to a really expensive school.

I agree with that, the argument should be more of the Marlins are run by someone whose credentials are playing baseball and the Orioles are run by someone who also played baseball with much lesser ability but has had a successful step by step climb to GM. 

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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31 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I had estimated Bundy conservatively at 12M in surplus based on Steamer projections and a basic aging/arb estimate, Villar was at about 4.5M with the same methodology. Now this is using a linear $/WAR calculation, which isn’t the correct way to do it and the 4.5M was on the high side apparently. 

I think a team that losses out on one of the big SP will come calling for Bundy.  So maybe a team like the CWS.  Or a team that can't afford a FA SP.  Bundy could be a replacement for Kyle Gibson in Minn.  

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gtown Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

gtown

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why give anything up?

There isn't a farm system in baseball that can't spare an Easton Lucas or two.

You asked why there wasn't a stronger return, if he indeed was at fair market value. I explained that there are free agents available for fair market value.

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LookinUp Hangout Grand Counsel

LookinUp

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I had estimated Bundy conservatively at 12M in surplus based on Steamer projections and a basic aging/arb estimate, Villar was at about 4.5M with the same methodology. Now this is using a linear $/WAR calculation, which isn’t the correct way to do it and the 4.5M was on the high side apparently. 

This is a 1 year estimate, right? Does it increase to $15-20 million over multiple years?

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