Can anyone vent how hard to wait on rebuild?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I have a soft spot for that 2009 team.    We saw the debuts of Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Berken, D. Hernandez, Reimold, Uehara and J. Turner.     That was the year Adam started with the pies.     Yeah, the team stank, but I don’t think of the old vets on that team, I think of the young guys who were coming up.   Plus, Jones and Markakis.    Luke Scott was pretty entertaining too.

I actually think this year could be a bit like that, with Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and Zimmermann all potentially debuting and a few others knocking on the door, plus getting a better look at Hays, Santander, Stewart and some others.  

Good points.  We were excited for some of those names to come up and debut even if they didn't go on to have great careers...or great careers with us.

Still though, had to maintain two more years of losing before anything from that 2009 season came to fruition.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

I have a soft spot for that 2009 team.    We saw the debuts of Wieters, Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Berken, D. Hernandez, Reimold, Uehara and J. Turner.     That was the year Adam started with the pies.     Yeah, the team stank, but I don’t think of the old vets on that team, I think of the young guys who were coming up.   Plus, Jones and Markakis.    Luke Scott was pretty entertaining too.

I actually think this year could be a bit like that, with Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer and Zimmermann all potentially debuting and a few others knocking on the door, plus getting a better look at Hays, Santander, Stewart and some others.  

I think that's what a lot of folks don't get.  And they are in for a rude awakening.

The 2009 team is probably 2-3 years ahead of the 2020 teams in terms of being able to compete.

When did they actually become good?

So when does that put the timetable for this current group?

(About 2025 or so.)

There's so much more losing to come.  

[Aglets]

I got much more enjoyment during 2019 from following the ins and outs of the minor leagues on a more regular basis.    I plan on doing the same this year and encourage others to try.  There are big bright spots down there that are moving ever closer..........

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Pickles said:

I think that's what a lot of folks don't get.  And they are in for a rude awakening.

The 2009 team is probably 2-3 years ahead of the 2020 teams in terms of being able to compete.

When did they actually become good?

So when does that put the timetable for this current group?

(About 2025 or so.)

There's so much more losing to come.  

Dude, no one knew back then when they'd get good...just like no one knows now.  Way too many unknowns and variables that could have come into play between 2009 and 2012.  

No one knew who Manny Machado was in 2009.  And if they did, they certainly didn't know he was going to get drafted by us and be a part of that 2012 team. 

No one knew we'd have JJ Hardy in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Wei Yin Chen in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Jason Hammel in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Chris Davis perform like he did in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Mark Reynolds in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Pedro Strop in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

You have no idea who will be on this team in 2025, just like you have no idea who'll be here in 2022.  You like to think you know, but you don't.  

Are you going to keep whining?

[MongoBoy]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I also don't really get any of the incessant whining about this rebuild.  Most of us were around for 1998-2011.  This is practically nothing in comparison.

I mean, what would you want instead?  A team like the 2003 version?  Fat Ponson, Jay Gibbons?

What about the 2004 team?  That was the year we went all in, pushed our chips to the middle of the table and thought Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Raffy 2.0 were going to transform this franchise and get us back to our winning ways.  But hey, they won 78 games!!!!   

 Would you prefer a squad like the 2009 team?  Brad Bergesen was our leader in WAR with 3.3 . I honestly didn't recognize who that was on the baseball reference page when I saw his photo.  Sure there were some luminaries like Markakis, Jones, B-Rob but that was offset by Cesar Izturis and Aubrey Huff.  We gave 24 starts to Jason "Merkin" (look it up) Berken and Jeremy Guthrie was terrible.  But hey!!!  They won 64 games!!  

We survived all those teams, all those seasons.  Had a decent stretch in the 2010s (looking back on it, we probably weren't even that good, it's just that the Sox and Yanks weren't that great) and now we're doing things properly.  I've maintained for a long time on here that the worst part of the 1998-2011 stretch wasn't the losing but it was the notion that the Orioles constantly tried to sell us on the idea that THIS IS THE YEAR.  

 

And we all believed it when they would win their first 6 games and then...

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude, no one knew back then when they'd get good...just like no one knows now.  Way too many unknowns and variables that could have come into play between 2009 and 2012.  

No one knew who Manny Machado was in 2009.  And if they did, they certainly didn't know he was going to get drafted by us and be a part of that 2012 team. 

No one knew we'd have JJ Hardy in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Wei Yin Chen in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Jason Hammel in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Chris Davis perform like he did in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Mark Reynolds in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

No one knew we'd have Pedro Strop in 2012 while we were watching the 2009 team.

You have no idea who will be on this team in 2025, just like you have no idea who'll be here in 2022.  You like to think you know, but you don't.  

Are you going to keep whining?

Who is whining, bro?

It's a statement of fact.

This team is bad.

We're in the BEGINNING stages of a rebuild.

We're behind teams people want to point to as symbols of ineptitude.

There's a lot of folks talking about 2022.

They better calm the hell down.

And, at the same time, people who want to vent about how bad this team is, are absolutely entitled.

No matter your perspective, you need to get a sense of humor about it.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Good points.  We were excited for some of those names to come up and debut even if they didn't go on to have great careers...or great careers with us.

Still though, had to maintain two more years of losing before anything from that 2009 season came to fruition.  

Yeah, and that’s kind of what I expect here.    Hopefully a few successful debut seasons in 2020, but it will still take a couple more years for other talented players to debut and for a core group to mature.    And then I’ll expect Elias to add some guys.    Not now.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Pickles said:

Who is whining, bro?

It's a statement of fact.

This team is bad.

We're in the BEGINNING stages of a rebuild.

We're behind teams people want to point to as symbols of ineptitude.

There's a lot of folks talking about 2022.

They better calm the hell down.

And, at the same time, people who want to vent about how bad this team is, are absolutely entitled.

No matter your perspective, you need to get a sense of humor about it.

[weams]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

There needs to be an epic rant thread on the main board for the frustration of what will come, has come, and is coming as we speak.

Upside: An epic Reynolds and sunflower seeds meme.

Downside: Losing half the board in epic flamewars.

What do ya'll think?  

Half the board won't go. 

[24fps]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I know we’ll be awful, but I certainly don’t know that we’ll lose 110+.    That’s hard to do.   I believe it’s only happened 4 times this century — 2004 Diamondbacks, 2013 Astros, 2018 Orioles and 2019 Tigers.     Obviously, it has happened more often recently, and with Bundy and Villar gone from a 108 loss team, we definitely could lose 110+.    But I’d say the odds are only about 50-50.    

I’m not having that hard a time with it.    I had a much harder time with losing 115 in 2018 when I wasn’t expecting it.   
 

2003 Tigers went 43-119.  IIRC all September people were waiting to see if they could be worse than the 1962 Mets.  I'm waiting to see what Elias does about the starting pitching before I expect anything less than 110 losses.

[UpstateNYfan]

Elias et al may indeed may be able to turn the O's around. The current success of the minor leagues are in part due to drafts in the old regime. Rebuilds can be ugly and slow. The question is, with attendance dropping to 1.3 million last year. A team that may be worse than 2019...a drop of attendance of 2,000/game would not seem unlikely, final attendance less than 1,000,000. Vendors, tourism and others affected. When does it turn around? The great stadium in no longer unique, the Nationals will steal fans, MASN in flux, etc. MLB always seems to be fairly stable in terms of franchise relocations, but I am always concerned with teams pulling an NFL Rosenblum?? LA Rams, St Louis Rams, LA Rams..Does the Angelo family want out?? I realize this has been rejected before, and perhaps correctly. I hope Elias succeeds beyond expectations. Houston has done well, but Houston is the fourth largest metropolitan population in the country. I would seem Baltimore may be slipping from mid-market. Large market teams can swallow their bad judgements. Small market teams get swallowed by their mistakes.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think that's what a lot of folks don't get.  And they are in for a rude awakening.

The 2009 team is probably 2-3 years ahead of the 2020 teams in terms of being able to compete.

When did they actually become good?

So when does that put the timetable for this current group?

(About 2025 or so.)

There's so much more losing to come.  

 

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dude, no one knew back then when they'd get good...just like no one knows now.  Way too many unknowns and variables that could have come into play between 2009 and 2012.  

I think you are both right.     Pickles is right that the 2020 team is probably behind the 2009 team in terms of talent already on the team, or graduating to the majors during the season, that will be part of our next winning core.    But Moose is right that there are too many variables to say that this rebuild will take longer than that process did, or exactly how long it will take.    

As for me, I’m just going to try to enjoy the process, however long it takes.    I’m going to focus on how the younger players are developing , both at the major league level and in the minors.   If Hays and Mountcastle each go 2 for 4 with a homer in a game Asher Wojciechowski loses 10-4, I’ll focus on what Hays and Mountcastle did, not on what the journeyman pitcher did.    And, I’ll be glad of gradual team improvement even if we’re still a good distance away from being a winning team.    I can do that, so long as the process looks good and I feel we are headed in the right direction.  
 

[Es4M11]

I'm content with the rebuild thus far, and am ready for another year of bottom dwelling. Doesn't really bother me at all. Maybe it's due to the Orioles being a losing team for most of my lifetime? Guess I'm used to it, and 5 years of mostly winning baseball didn't shake me free of it. For now, I am enjoying the team building. I'll wait for '21 to start caring about wins and losses again.

The rebuild gets a passing grade from me, so far.

[Pickles]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well, maybe it is not funny but it is true.

[Pickles]

Just now, Es4M11 said:

I'm content with the rebuild thus far, and am ready for another year of bottom dwelling. Doesn't really bother me at all. Maybe it's due to the Orioles being a losing team for most of my lifetime? Guess I'm used to it, and 5 years of mostly winning baseball didn't shake me free of it. For now, I am enjoying the team building. I'll wait for '21 to start caring about wins and losses again.

The rebuild gets a passing grade from me, so far.

It's hard to have major complaints about Elias so far.