Oscar Colás - Time to Spend Some of That Int'l Money?

[AnythingO's]

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

re: Norge Carlos Vera.

Possible bidders with J2 cap left: Orioles (who are still looking for a headline international signing after passing on Yolbert Sanchez last winter), Brewers, Cardinals, Nationals, Rockies, and Indians. Or he could wait to sign until July 2, 2020, should another club offer him a substantial amount more than the aforementioned teams, which would puts other orgs, like the Rangers, into play.

Because a bidding war is possible, there is a chance Vera receives $2.5 million, or slightly more, from a team that buys into the projection and pitches shown on Saturday. When he signs, he’ll likely fit in the 40+ FV or low 45 FV prospect range on THE BOARD, with No. 3 or 4 starter upside, the unquestioned top pitcher in the 2019 who may also be the best in the 2020 class if he chooses to wait until then.

Luke, do you have an opinion on him? He seems young (20 next season) and physically projectable.

link: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cuban-right-hander-norge-carlos-vera/

 

[Larry18]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Any theories on why he went to Japan minor leagues out of Cuba instead of the U.S.?

He didn’t have to defect to play in Japan. 

[Philip]

20 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We just need talent. Prospects are going to fail. That’s why you need depth. Get as much talent as you can. 

That’s the logic behind the recent trades: acquire lots of potential players  who currently have less value because of youth or development status.

[Camden_yardbird]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why?   Because he’s done well in Japan’s minor leagues?     I’m getting tired of people treating every Cuban refugee like they’re the messiah.    Such a shame we didn’t spend $6 mm to get Victor Victor Mesa and his .537 OPS in A+/AA this year.     

I’m not saying Colas isn’t worth the money.     I’m saying let our professionals assess that and don’t believe every bit of hype you hear.     
 

 

12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

He might be good, but the stats are in Japan's minor league, which I have no point of reference as to the how that translates.

The scouting takes are one-line nothing takes from anonymous scouts. 

The articles have nothing significant as far as info about the player's abilities other than that he was being developed as a pitcher a couple years ago but hasn't thrown a competitive pitch as far as I can tell.

The videos have like 2 swings from a less than ideal angle vs unknown velocity. 

He could be really good, but there is nothing I've seen to give myself any confidence in that conclusion. 

 

I respect both your opinions (even when your post can be patronizing frobby) but you cant expect to sit here and hope that the amateur draft is the sole path to success.  You both know better than that.  At some point you have to spend money to build in a broader swath of talent.  Or else we are going to be sitting here in 10 years going "Well, that Rutchman run was great, too bad we could surround him with enough talent to put a competitive product out there."

In the grand scheme of things spending a few million on a prospect with professional success is something you have to do.  The yankees do it, boston does it,  the twins success right now is due to it, we are about to see what happens with Robert.

Perhaps I was quick to say it's a no brainer, but at some point you have to jump in to the deep end.  Not recklessly, but measured isnt going to cut it.  Not how MLB is set up right now.

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

I respect both your opinions (even when your post can be patronizing frobby) but you cant expect to sit here and hope that the amateur draft is the sole path to success.  You both know better than that.  At some point you have to spend money to build in a broader swath of talent.  Or else we are going to be sitting here in 10 years going "Well, that Rutchman run was great, too bad we could surround him with enough talent to put a competitive product out there."

In the grand scheme of things spending a few million on a prospect with professional success is something you have to do.  The yankees do it, boston does it,  the twins success right now is due to it, we are about to see what happens with Robert.

Perhaps I was quick to say it's a no brainer, but at some point you have to jump in to the deep end.  Not recklessly, but measured isnt going to cut it.  Not how MLB is set up right now.

I don't think anyone is saying "rely solely on the amateur draft".

Clearly we need to make great international signings for years and years to do things right. 

And make good trades, like the Bundy trade. I don't know if any of the 4 will develop but each seem to have a chance to add value. 

Maybe Colas develops into a superstar. But I'd rather the experts make the evaluation than base it on a few swings and little else. I thought that was the primary point that frobby and Luke were making. 

I think the O's are beginning to do all of the things they need to be doing but it takes time. We had no where close to a full staff last year and still got a lot done. I have confidence that a lot more will happen within the next 365.

[weams]

11 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 

 

In the grand scheme of things spending a few million on a prospect with professional success is something you have to do.  The yankees do it, boston does it,  the twins success right now is due to it, we are about to see what happens with Robert.

 

At the risk of being patronizing myself, I don't think the deep end is necessary yet. It is time for pain and waiting. Guessing on Japanese minor leaguers probably is the least of my concerns. I think the Mesa brothers showed us that. Victor Victor is not even as good as Henry Urrutia. 

[Larry18]

He hasn’t even established residence in another country. Once that’s done he needs to get cleared by the State department. Neither of which appear to be a quick process.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, weams said:

At the risk of being patronizing myself, I don't think the deep end is necessary yet. It is time for pain and waiting. Guessing on Japanese minor leaguers probably is the least of my concerns. I think the Mesa brothers showed us that. Victor Victor is not even as good as Henry Urrutia. 

Not patronizing at all.  

I do think the Orioles have to exhaust all avenues for talent acquisition.  I do not think the draft and shots on AAAA players is going to do it.  I think we might be okay, but I dont think they will ever build a championship team that way.  And to those advocating on expanding talent acquisition channels once the base is here I would wonder why you would think you shouldnt be doing it now?

If you can fill a tub with one faucet, you can fill a tub with four.

And last point on VVM is that anyone saying hes a complete bust after one season (we dont know if they were correcting his swing) is tilting at the same windmills, and jumping to conclusions as much as you thinkni am by saying we should spend $15 million on a Cuban prospect with successful professional experience. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I respect both your opinions (even when your post can be patronizing frobby) but you cant expect to sit here and hope that the amateur draft is the sole path to success.  You both know better than that.  At some point you have to spend money to build in a broader swath of talent.  Or else we are going to be sitting here in 10 years going "Well, that Rutchman run was great, too bad we could surround him with enough talent to put a competitive product out there."

In the grand scheme of things spending a few million on a prospect with professional success is something you have to do.  The yankees do it, boston does it,  the twins success right now is due to it, we are about to see what happens with Robert.

Perhaps I was quick to say it's a no brainer, but at some point you have to jump in to the deep end.  Not recklessly, but measured isnt going to cut it.  Not how MLB is set up right now.

Re-reading my post, my tone was a bit snooty, and I sincerely apologize.   

My point, though, is not that we don’t need other avenues of talent.   I’m excited about being more aggressive in the overseas market.    I’m just saying, I don’t consider it a no-brainer that this is the guy we should spend most or all of our war chest on.    He might be — that’s for Perez and Elias to figure out.     But the hype that surrounds some of these guys isn’t always justified.     I’ll trust our guys to decide how good Colas is or might become, and act accordingly.   
 

[CallMeBrooksie]

3 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

 but you cant expect to sit here and hope that the amateur draft is the sole path to success. 

I think the front office's actions over the past year have shown us they agree with you on this. It was our most significant international draft class ever and their statements before and after give every indication that this was only the beginning. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Not patronizing at all.  

I do think the Orioles have to exhaust all avenues for talent acquisition.  I do not think the draft and shots on AAAA players is going to do it.  I think we might be okay, but I dont think they will ever build a championship team that way.  And to those advocating on expanding talent acquisition channels once the base is here I would wonder why you would think you shouldnt be doing it now?

If you can fill a tub with one faucet, you can fill a tub with four.

And last point on VVM is that anyone saying hes a complete bust after one season (we dont know if they were correcting his swing) is tilting at the same windmills, and jumping to conclusions as much as you thinkni am by saying we should spend $15 million on a Cuban prospect with successful professional experience. 

VVM is older than Yusniel Diaz.  And it appears he can not hit. That's an issue. 

[Scalious]

I didn't really get the VVM hype back then. He was not a teenager anymore. He didn't have noteable power projections, nor a frame to grow into. You gotta be a MI prospect with that profile IMO. (or at least an unquestionably elite defensive CF)

Yet he was an OF.

Edited January 4, 2020 by Scalious

[weams]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-analyzed-the-value-of-international-signing-bonus-money/

Buried lede

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, weams said:

VVM is older than Yusniel Diaz.  And it appears he can not hit. That's an issue. 

VVM actually had recent scouting reports that were positive and showed a technically competent swing with solid bat speed in batting practice video. Game video was lacking and it appears that there isn't much power in the profile. Fangraphs had given him a 45 and they've downgraded him to a 40. Plus CF defense is going to give him a low offensive bar to cross. 

Edit: watching some game video, it's obvious the swing has gone to crap, he's tentative, he doesn't stay connected, and his hands need to quiet down a bit. Even batting practice looks much worse. He has no problem putting bat on ball, so I'd say there is some hope if the swing can be fixed.

[Camden_yardbird]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Re-reading my post, my tone was a bit snooty, and I sincerely apologize.   

My point, though, is not that we don’t need other avenues of talent.   I’m excited about being more aggressive in the overseas market.    I’m just saying, I don’t consider it a no-brainer that this is the guy we should spend most or all of our war chest on.    He might be — that’s for Perez and Elias to figure out.     But the hype that surrounds some of these guys isn’t always justified.     I’ll trust our guys to decide how good Colas is or might become, and act accordingly.   
 

Okay.  Let me qualify this.  If the choice is spending the remainder of our unspent allowance on him, or letting it lapse, then it's a no brainer.  That's leaving money on the table.  

There are,at this point, no other players we would be spending that money on.

If come the reset of the international bonus pool, I dont care if this guy ends up being Mike Trout or Billy Rowell, I am going to be pissed if we didnt sign him and let that allowance lapse.

If he waits until after the reset that's a different story.