Pitchers drafted #1 or #2 since 2000

[wildcard]

16 pitchers have been selected #1 or #2 since 2000

7 of 12 have found some success

Success Stories

1) Justin Verlander #2  2004   225-129    3.33 ERA   Still playing

2) David Price #1 2007    150-80   3.31 ERA  Still playing

3) Stephen Strasburgh #1 2009   112-58   3.17 ERA   Still playing

4)  Gerrit Cole #1 2011   94-52    3.22 ERA   Still playing

5) Mark Prior  #2   2001   5 mlb seasons,   42-29  3.51 ERA    last play in 2013

6) Jameson Taillon #2  2010    4 mlb  seasons,   29-24   3.67 ERA

7) Luke  Hochevar #1 2006   9 mlb seasons,  46-65   4.98 ERA   Move to the pen has helped him since 2013, last play in 2016

Just made the majors

8)  Danny Hultzen #2  2011  0-0   0.00 ERA in 2019 Still playing

Made the majors but little good happened

9) Bryan Bullington #1  2002   5 mlb  seasons  1-9  5.62 ERA  last played in 2015

10) Greg Reynolds #2 2006    3  mlb seasons,    6-11  7.01 ERA   last played in 2016

11) Adam Johnson  #2   2000   2 mlb seasons,   1-3  10.25  last played 2009

Didn't make it

12) Mark Appel #1 2013  Highest level AAA  last played 2017

Still moving through the minors

13) Casey Mize  #1 2018   22 at AA

14) Hunter Green #2 2017   19  at A ball,   TJ surgery at end of 2019

15) Tyler Kolek #2 2014   23 year old at A ball in 2019

16) Brady Aiken #1 2014  23 years old at A ball in 2019

 

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

So you have a bit of selection bias here.  The O's are drafting at #2.  Yet you've looked at pitchers drafted #1 or #2 overall.  You lumped Price, Strasburg, and Cole (consensus #1 overall picks who would have been gone by the #2 pick in almost any draft) with all the #2 guys.

If you do that to make the data more realistic and comprehensive you should include #3s as well. 

I'll help you out:
2016-17, MacKenzie Gore and Ian Anderson, still in minors, jury still out.
2014, Carlos Rodon, average starter with the White Sox
2013, Jon Gray, 4.46 ERA as a reliever for the Rockies
2011, Trevor Bauer, 70-60, 4.04 as a MLB starter. Solid, if unspectacular.
2004, Phillip Humber, 16-23, 5.31
2003, Kyle Sleeth, never played in the majors
2002, Chris Gruler, never played in the majors
2001, Dewon Brazelton, 8-25, 6.38

Also, it's interesting that you count Luke Hochevar as a success story, given that he had one year in his career with > 1 WAR, and that as a reliever at 29 after being sent to the pen after leading the majors in earned runs allowed the prior season.

Summing up... from 2000-2016 (I cut off the guys who're still in the minors and might have a chance) there were 21 #1-3 picks .  Eight of them ended up with 5.0 or more WAR.  Five ended up with 15+ WAR, but three of them were consensus #1 overall picks. 

Optimistically you're looking at a 40% hit rate, more like 25% if you exclude the obvious #1 picks like Strasburg.  You have to count guys like Hochevar (who had a career about half as good as Kevin Gausman) as successes to get to 50/50.

 

[Redskins Rick]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So you have a bit of selection bias here.  The O's are drafting at #2.  Yet you've looked at pitchers drafted #1 or #2 overall.  You lumped Price, Strasburg, and Cole (consensus #1 overall picks who would have been gone by the #2 pick in almost any draft) with all the #2 guys.

If you do that to make the data more realistic and comprehensive you should include #3s as well. 

I'll help you out:
2016-17, MacKenzie Gore and Ian Anderson, still in minors, jury still out.
2014, Carlos Rodon, average starter with the White Sox
2013, Jon Gray, 4.46 ERA as a reliever for the Rockies
2011, Trevor Bauer, 70-60, 4.04 as a MLB starter. Solid, if unspectacular.
2004, Phillip Humber, 16-23, 5.31
2003, Kyle Sleeth, never played in the majors
2002, Chris Gruler, never played in the majors
2001, Dewon Brazelton, 8-25, 6.38

Also, it's interesting that you count Luke Hochevar as a success story, given that he had one year in his career with > 1 WAR, and that as a reliever at 29 after being sent to the pen after leading the majors in earned runs allowed the prior season.

Summing up... from 2000-2016 (I cut off the guys who're still in the minors and might have a chance) there were 21 #1-3 picks .  Eight of them ended up with 5.0 or more WAR.  Five ended up with 15+ WAR, but three of them were consensus #1 overall picks. 

Optimistically you're looking at a 40% hit rate, more like 25% if you exclude the obvious #1 picks like Strasburg.  You have to count guys like Hochevar (who had a career about half as good as Kevin Gausman) as successes to get to 50/50.

 

2009 Draft was different for sure. I think pretty much the whole world at Strasburg going number 1, in spite of Boras as his agent.

Angels took Mike Trout out of High School at the age of 25 as a comp pick.

Trout is probably the best position player in the majors, and Strasburg has been very good, but not even the Ace of their staff, or the best at his position in the majors.

 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

2009 Draft was different for sure. I think pretty much the whole world at Strasburg going number 1, in spite of Boras as his agent.

Angels took Mike Trout out of High School at the age of 25 as a comp pick.

Trout is probably the best position player in the majors, and Strasburg has been very good, but not even the Ace of their staff, or the best at his position in the majors.

 

Yeah. I have to agree with Drungo here. Sorry. 

[Redskins Rick]

6 minutes ago, weams said:

Yeah. I have to agree with Drungo here. Sorry. 

Its all good.

Glad to have a baseball discussion, in spite of the fact, it makes me miss the game even more.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

2009 Draft was different for sure. I think pretty much the whole world at Strasburg going number 1, in spite of Boras as his agent.

Angels took Mike Trout out of High School at the age of 25 as a comp pick.

Trout is probably the best position player in the majors, and Strasburg has been very good, but not even the Ace of their staff, or the best at his position in the majors.

 

Strasburg was the obvious choice, and was a worthy pick.   Trout is from another planet.     

People seem to be assuming wildcard has an agenda, but to me he just presented information.    It’s not much data to go on, however.   
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

2009 Draft was different for sure. I think pretty much the whole world at Strasburg going number 1, in spite of Boras as his agent.

Angels took Mike Trout out of High School at the age of 25 as a comp pick.

Trout is probably the best position player in the majors, and Strasburg has been very good, but not even the Ace of their staff, or the best at his position in the majors.

 

Probably?

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably?

Look 8 straight 7+ WAR seasons may be good for you but it’s pretty thin from where I stand.

[Redskins Rick]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably?

A majority of the people. I doubt you could get 100% approval in OH on this (Or any other poll. lol)

 

 

[GuidoSarducci]

21 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

2009 Draft was different for sure. I think pretty much the whole world at Strasburg going number 1, in spite of Boras as his agent.

Angels took Mike Trout out of High School at the age of 25 as a comp pick.

Trout is probably the best position player in the majors, and Strasburg has been very good, but not even the Ace of their staff, or the best at his position in the majors.

I think you mean to say the Angels drafted Trout out of high school at pick 25 as a comp pick for losing to Texeira 

[hoosiers]

So, former GM Jim Bowden is now writing for the Atlantic.  According to his research, there were 42 players taken among the 80 players selected in the first five picks of the 16 MLB drafts between 2000 and 2015 and only five of the 42 have justified the selection - Verlander, Price, Strausburg, Cole and Bauer.  Two of those pitchers, Verlander and Strausburg, were "no-brainer" decisions.  It is a hit rate far below WC's opening post.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

So, former GM Jim Bowden is now writing for the Atlantic.  According to his research, there were 42 players taken among the 80 players selected in the first five picks of the 16 MLB drafts between 2000 and 2015 and only five of the 42 have justified the selection - Verlander, Price, Strausburg, Cole and Bauer.  Two of those pitchers, Verlander and Strausburg, were "no-brainer" decisions.  It is a hit rate far below WC's opening post.

Just to clarify, he’s talking specifically about pitchers that have justified being picked.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, survivedc said:

Just to clarify, he’s talking specifically about pitchers that have justified being picked.

20/20 hindsight.  Which is kind of a cynical way to look at the draft through a retroactive crystal ball.

The Tigers didn't have the greatest scouts ever, or a bunch of wizards, telling them to pick Justin Verlander #2 in 2004.  They just had the #2 pick and most of the league would have taken him.  Just like in 2006 when the Rockies took Great Reynolds #2, they weren't idiots, he was going to go in the top few picks in any case, but he just didn't work out.

Bowden is going back in time and telling us which lottery numbers were worth it based on which got picked out of the ping pong ball machine.

[Jagwar]

I'm not sure I would characterize Mark Prior as a "success story". 

[hoosiers]

7 hours ago, survivedc said:

Just to clarify, he’s talking specifically about pitchers that have justified being picked.

I am not a big Bowden fan and I don't like the claim in his article that one shouldn't draft a pitcher in the top five slots in the first round just because of who was drafted in that slot in prior years.  The evaluation of a prospect should be a unique event, IMO.  However, Bowden's generalizations of the recent historical failure rates of the pitchers taken at the very top of a draft class uses the same line of reasoning (again, which I don't like) as is used in the OP of this thread and provides a starkly different conclusion - that the failure rate of SPs who were thought to be the best of their class is quite high.  A period which Bowden's article points out includes the Os selection of Brian Matusz.