2020 Orioles draft review: Elias ends up with three first round talents

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, makoman said:

Kjerstad hit 438 this year. 343 career.

Westburg hit 317 this year, 294 last year (with OBPs over 400).

Haskin hit 333 this year, 372 last year.

Servideo hit 390 this year 287 last year.

Mayo hit 455 this year, 391 last year (high school).

What are you talking about?

This years BA doesnt count as its a small sample size

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, Tony. I acknowledge they may have first round talent. You could argue there are boom or bust type guys taken every year in rounds 2-5 who have first round talent.  No team was willing to draft either guy in the first round and pay them first round money.  

Ok, so what did I say that was wrong? I said 1st round talent. I didn't say the Orioles scooped up three 1st rounders. People are losing their minds and besides, it's my opinion based on what I've read, heard and observed on video. People are free to disagree or think I'm nuts. Hell, some people think Elias is stupid. Again, seeing what's going on in this country, I'm long past arguing with people over my opinion. Feel free to respectfully disagree all you like. 

We all have no idea how these guys are going to turn out and for the people who keep pointing to "the experts" i.e. the guys doing mock drafts and lists, feel free to go back and do the research and see how often they've been wrong. Hell, go to any top 100 prospect lists done by the "experts" and see how many complete failed, including top ten prospects with years of minor league stats behind them.

The Orioles, and many other teams, have a lot of data and metrics they are using which some of the "experts" don't have access to. Elias and Sig also have a pretty good track record. So yes, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt while also looking at all the data and information I can find.

Anyone who thinks this is an absolute bust right now is ridiculously uninformed. Anyone who thinks this is an absolute fantastic draft that will change the Orioles' horizons in a couple of years is ridiculously uninformed, but the truth is, if two of these guys become above average players and at least one becomes an impact player at the major league draft, it's a damn good draft.

I know we don't have a lot to discuss and this is the only game in town, and all points of view are welcome, but some people around here need to take a deep breath and realize the major league draft is a crapshoot after the first round and even late in the first round traditionally, and that's with a full year of baseball that just occurred from the players being drafted. 

Elias decided that the value of going with Kjerstad was worth getting guys he really liked in Mayo and Baumler. Time will tell whether that was a good idea or not but no one knows right now definitively that it was or was not the right call. No one.

[survivedc]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

This years BA doesnt count as its a small sample size

.294 and .287 aren’t very close to .250. That’s the difference between a starter and an all star caliber player in the bigs.

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Most outlets had him between 5 and 10 IIRC. 

Yes.  In fact, I was reading the morning of draft day that Kansas City was in discussions with him about the 4th pick.  It is worth noting that KC did not draft Martin when presented the opportunity to do so.

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Smilin' Joe Fission said:

If this is the case as the future heart of the order, who do we have in the system as the higher average/obp guys?  I'll admit I was disappointed in us not picking Martin given the painful on-base years we've had.

Both Rutschman and Kjerstad have a chance to be good/great OBP guys. Haskin and Servideo both are OBP guys. We don't have enough data on Henderson of Hernaiz to know yet.

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Could be that nobody else would be able to match their numbers to which we agreed pre-draft, so you’d rather get CBA, 2nd, 3rd rounders and the two HS kids than the two HS kids, 3rd, 4th m, and 5th rounders. 

Nobody had the money in the 4th and 5th rounds to take them so the Orioles hoped they would slip and be available. 

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Great ...so they drafted 2 RF or a RF and a DH! I'm more excited now .... Rolls Eyes!

You are hilarious. You are so over the top that I can almost see you seething. I like your passion, but it's so misguided at times. Like your hate for the best quarterback and player in football last year. You see what you want to see, but you need to learn to be more open to other opinions and ideas and also realize you may be proven wrong and then accept that.

Let's say both Kjerstad and Mayo's bats become impact guys and they both have RF arms and speed. Do you really think that's a bad thing?

I don't care all that much about positions at this point, but want guys with value. Value that they can also trade for ready and proven pitching that will be needed for competitive World Series runs.

While we all like to envision these guys doing well at Camden Yards, they are assets to be used to win and win often. That also includes being trade bait for positions of needs when they are close.

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, survivedc said:

.294 and .287 aren’t very close to .250. That’s the difference between a starter and an all star caliber player in the bigs.

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

[makoman]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

And 290 hitters sophomore year turn into 340 hitters junior year if they take the next step.

Rutschman hit 234 his freshman year, he should've just quit right?

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You are hilarious. You are so over the top that I can almost see you seething. I like your passion, but it's so misguided at times. Like your hate for the best quarterback and player in football last year. You see what you want to see, but you need to learn to be more open to other opinions and ideas and also realize you may be proven wrong and then accept that.

Let's say both Kjerstad and Mayo's bats become impact guys and they both have RF arms and speed. Do you really think that's a bad thing?

I don't care all that much about positions at this point, but want guys with value. Value that they can also trade for ready and proven pitching that will be needed for competitive World Series runs.

While we all like to envision these guys doing well at Camden Yards, they are assets to be used to win and win often. That also includes being trade bait for positions of needs when they are close.

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

So you read one Fangraphs opinion on Mayo that says he thinks Mayo ends up in RF (which, by the way, was a rather positive take on Mayo's potential), and you latch on to that because it fits your narrative.

It's just not that simple. Other reports say he has one of the best arms of the whole draft and great athleticism.. he could stick at 3rd. He's drawn comps of Austin Riley for his ceiling. Or maybe he has the tools to play an excellent RF. You don't decide to not take a guy just because you have other OF prospects. 

The issue will be with his footwork at third base, but the hands, mobility, and arm strength all can stay at 3B. I don't see him moving off 3B anytime soon. I could see him at 3B, Henderson at SS, and Hernaiz at 2B at Delmarva next year.

[CallMeBrooksie]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

LOL. Show your work, please.

How the hell did you come up with this equation and why aren't you working in someone's front office?

Player development isn't linear. It never is. This is why nobody can have a real discussion with you about the draft.. because you really think it's this straightforward.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

Um, no it doesn't. It usually indicates they have strong arm and not the speed for center. Limited defensive outfielders are usually pegged LF/1B types at draft time.

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

.400 hitters in college are .280-.310 in the MLB level ..... .280-.290 in college or high school is .250 or lower at the majors

You are being silly now. 

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

RF indicates that the guys are limited defensively

Why? Some of the greatest players in history have occupied that position. It certainly requires a huge bat.