Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

I thought the Pirates traded oh wait, it wasn’t Snell... the pitcher the Pirates traded in the package for Archer, the name escapes me(haha obviously)

the point remains, I just had the name wrong.

The pitcher was Tyler Glasnow.    But he wasn’t really a prospect anymore either.   He’d pitched in 56 major league games when he was traded.    

[Philip]

1 hour ago, dabirds said:

Glasnow 

Tyler Glasnow, of course. Thank you.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Philip

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The pitcher was Tyler Glasnow.    But he wasn’t really a prospect anymore either.   He’d pitched in 56 major league games when he was traded.    

Wow, I am annoyed at myself for being so incorrect when I could’ve easily checked before I made my point, but the point remains valid. It’s better to draft them than to sign them as a free agent or to trade for them once they are established, Even if the road from draft pick to productive Player is long and fraught with danger and failure.

[hoosiers]

9 hours ago, Philip said:

Wow, I am annoyed at myself for being so incorrect when I could’ve easily checked before I made my point, but the point remains valid. It’s better to draft them than to sign them as a free agent or to trade for them once they are established, Even if the road from draft pick to productive Player is long and fraught with danger and failure.

This is something I have always believed and thoroughly endorsed during the AM years and before.  It seems like the easiest way to compete is to have quality young SPs leading the team.  Free agent pitching is so expensive.  Trading for true SP1s and SP2s is very expensive.  Free agent hitting - only expensive at the highest tier.  

All that said, I think the Astros FO that led to their championship and our current front office, while perhaps showing a willingness to draft SP prospects with early picks for the right talents, has shown a clear preference to draft bats and trade for pitchers.  It is taking me time to absorb this lesson and understand if it is the best way to build a leading farm system and major league team. 

Part of this is that the Astros have been ahead of the curve regarding turning guys like Verlander and Cole and Ryan Pressly into the best version of themselves, but it will be interesting to see what happens as the rest of the league adapts analytically and catches up.

It will be interesting to see the hit rate on our pitching prospects moving forward and who our front office drafts as our system fills up with hitters.

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

This is something I have always believed and thoroughly endorsed during the AM years and before.  It seems like the easiest way to compete is to have quality young SPs leading the team.  Free agent pitching is so expensive.  Trading for true SP1s and SP2s is very expensive.  Free agent hitting - only expensive at the highest tier.  

All that said, I think the Astros FO that led to their championship and our current front office, while perhaps showing a willingness to draft SP prospects with early picks for the right talents, has shown a clear preference to draft bats and trade for pitchers.  It is taking me time to absorb this lesson and understand if it is the best way to build a leading farm system and major league team. 

Part of this is that the Astros have been ahead of the curve regarding turning guys like Verlander and Cole and Ryan Pressly into the best version of themselves, but it will be interesting to see what happens as the rest of the league adapts analytically and catches up.

It will be interesting to see the hit rate on our pitching prospects moving forward and who our front office drafts as our system fills up with hitters.

Swimming against the grain, especially when you believe you have "discovered" something everyone else has yet to determine seems to have been part of the Astro success story.  The Orioles lack talent so building with bats or arms is moving forward.  The current stable of pitchers has promise...of course WE have been here before....the Cavalry was going to set us free.  It is extremely hard to not judge Elias based on past Oriole results and it is hard not to expect exact Houston results for the same reason.  But that part is human nature.

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wouldn't expect one throw to convince anyone. 

I just think he has the capability to stay in right and play some emergency center.  I'm in the not sold on Santander camp.

Im in the not sold on current O's camp.  I remain hopeful on guys like Santander or Diaz or others hit, but am not sold.

[FlipTheBird]

On 6/16/2020 at 2:21 PM, Can_of_corn said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_Springs_Sky_Sox

Coors is at 5,200.

That doesn’t change the fact that years after we traded the guy he still wasn’t beating down doors. Was he a prospect we once had that has since found success? Yes. But is he some gargantuan miss everybody saw coming? No.

[FlipTheBird]

On 6/16/2020 at 8:05 PM, Philip said:

 

I thought the Pirates traded oh wait, it wasn’t Snell... the pitcher the Pirates traded in the package for Archer, the name escapes me(haha obviously)

the point remains, I just had the name wrong.

I am presuming that the former Pirate names Snell you’re confusing Blake with is Ian Snell. No relation.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

That doesn’t change the fact that years after we traded the guy he still wasn’t beating down doors. Was he a prospect we once had that has since found success? Yes. But is he some gargantuan miss everybody saw coming? No.

His numbers were fine considering where he was pitching.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 6/16/2020 at 8:42 PM, Beef Supreme said:

Seems Santander stirs a wider range of opinion on here than most players. I agree: his future with the club is not certain.

He had a 101 OPS+, which was considered a very positive season for him.  Still had a .297 OBP, and his power spike happened in the biggest home run year in MLB history.  So, yes, lots of uncertainty.

[sportsfan8703]

Does the current situation work out better for hitters than pitchers?  I'd think hitters, but now our pitchers get an extended period of time to focus on analytical changes.  

[Enjoy Terror]

On 6/16/2020 at 11:05 PM, Philip said:

 

I thought the Pirates traded oh wait, it wasn’t Snell... the pitcher the Pirates traded in the package for Archer, the name escapes me(haha obviously)

the point remains, I just had the name wrong.

Guarantee you were thinking Ian Snell, who pitched six seasons for the Pirates.

[DirtyBird]

I think, over the past two drafts, Zach Watson was the worst pick

[sportsfan8703]

50 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I think, over the past two drafts, Zach Watson was the worst pick

If our "worst" pick is a CF that will make the majors, then we're doing pretty good.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

58 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I think, over the past two drafts, Zach Watson was the worst pick

Out of curiosity, why do you say that?

[Philip]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He had a 101 OPS+, which was considered a very positive season for him.  Still had a .297 OBP, and his power spike happened in the biggest home run year in MLB history.  So, yes, lots of uncertainty.

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.