Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

[Frobby]

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.   

2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend.   For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.    

3.    He won’t reach for a pitcher.     If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.    

4.   He likes athletic players.     Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.   

5.   He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.

 

 

 

[Philip]

Nice to read your comments again.

you left out:

#6 he has yet to call any pick he’s made,”...a qualified major leaguer.”

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Nice to read your comments again.

you left out:

#6 he has yet to call any pick he’s made,”...a qualified major leaguer.”

Oh geez. Go home.

[Orioles0615]

So in regards to number 3 what do we do if we can get Kumasi Rocker next year 

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, andrewochs615 said:

So in regards to number 3 what do we do if we can get Kumasi Rocker next year 

Would we take him?

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Would we take him?

Would he be a reach?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would he be a reach?

I’d say next year’s draft is completely unpredictable at this point.   I just pray that life is back to some semblance of normal and a full high school/college season is played.    

[wildcard]

It seems to me that not picking any pitching high in the draft for the last two years is a real problem.

I think not taking Asa Lacy will be regrettable.

I also don't understand why deciding who Elias was going to pick with he #2 pick was  a last minute decision.   Apparently there was no contract negotiations before the draft with Kjerstad.   I don't understand why.

I can understand not taking Martin if Boras was demand #1 money.   I can understand waiting to see if the Tigers took Torkelson.    But neither of those things means that Elias could not have been  in negotiation with his preferred #2 pick.   

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

It seems to me that no picking any pitching high in the draft for the last two years is a real problem.

I think not taking Asa Lacy will be regrettable.

Just for some perspective, in Fangraphs’ list of 39 O’s prospects rated 35+ or higher, 22 of the 39 are pitchers.   In all of MLB, exactly 50% of such prospects are pitchers.    So, we have above average pitching depth already.    At the top end we have a 55 and a 50.    There are only 44 pitchers rated 50 or higher, so we’re good at the top end too.

I think it’s pretty clear that Elias won’t pick high end pitchers unless he thinks they’re worth their spot.    As you pointed out in a thread earlier this week, he seems to be pretty confident that we can develop pitchers picked lower in the draft.  And it looks like we did well with our fifth rounder.   
 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

It seems to me that no picking any pitching high in the draft for the last two years is a real problem.

I think not taking Asa Lacy will be regrettable.

I also don't understand why deciding who Elias was going to pick with he #2 pick was  a last minute decision.   Apparently there was no contract negotiations before the draft with Kjerstad.   I don't understand why.

I can understand not taking Martin if Boras was demand #1 money.   I can understand waiting to see if the Tigers took Torkelson.    But neither of those things means that Elias could not have been  in negotiation with his preferred #2 pick.   

You're the guy who has studied what Elias did in Houston, so surely you can draw the parallels to how he's handled both of these drafts?

[interloper]

If you look back at the "sure things" the O's have picked in the pitcher position, it hasn't been great. Bundy and Gausman were about as sure as they come. Oops! Rodriguez was famously thought to be a reach and here he is beating down the door as one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Picking position players is safer for myriad reasons but one of the best upsides is they stay healthy and you can trade them for pitchers who are already established or close to being established. 

All that and Elias and crew have very specific things they look for in pitchers. That factors in pretty heavily. I also tend to think that our position player stock in the farm system is preeeetttty weak. Much weaker than our pitching stock, honestly. So I think we're trying to load up on position players to raise the overall talent level of the farm. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Opinions are great. Thanks Frobby.  On the other hand it's the same old "schtick" from the same small cast of characters.  Phew!

Elias' two drafts are definitely highly college position player heavy, which historically carries the least amount of risk. Time will tell.  I guess the theory is to gain assets that can be traded for pitching.  Gonna be tough to develop frontline starters this way.

I really hate always bringing up the Astros when predicting what Elias might do - but if you look at their team, they traded for a lot of their impact starting pitching: Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Morton.

Keuchel was home-grown and was a 7th rounder. McCullers was 41st overall (and who they picked up by taking Correa underslot) and an outlier to this - but he really hasn't been able to stay healthy. His all-curveball game in the 2017 World Series was pretty important, though.

I guess if you can grow the bats - you can then go buy/trade for pitchers that you already know are sure things. Kind of the reverse McPhail philosophy.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

If you look back at the "sure things" the O's have picked in the pitcher position, it hasn't been great. Bundy and Gausman were about as sure as they come. Oops! Rodriguez was famously thought to be a reach and here he is beating down the door as one of the better pitching prospects in the game.

Picking position players is safer for myriad reasons but one of the best upsides is they stay healthy and you can trade them for pitchers who are already established or close to being established. 

All that and Elias and crew have very specific things they look for in pitchers. That factors in pretty heavily. I also tend to think that our position player stock in the farm system is preeeetttty weak. Much weaker than our pitching stock, honestly. So I think we're trying to load up on position players to raise the overall talent level of the farm. 

While Bundy and Gausman never really fulfilled their expectations - it's not like they were busts. They both are still okay major league pitchers starting pitchers - which ain't worth nothin'. Same thing with Wieters - never became switch-hitting Jesus - but he was a solid backstop.

But, I agree with your overall point. 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

While Bundy and Gausman never really fulfilled their expectations - it's not like they were busts. They both are still okay major league pitchers starting pitchers - which ain't worth nothin'. Same thing with Wieters - never became switch-hitting Jesus - but he was a solid backstop.

But, I agree with your overall point. 

True. Part of it is certainly that we Orioles fans are desperate for an ace. We haven't seen one since Mussina or, if you're feeling generous, Bedard. Which is crazy!

 

But that's honestly why I feel like going position player-heavy is refreshing. Let's stop trying to find the mythical ace. Let's go trade for someone else's instead lol. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d say next year’s draft is completely unpredictable at this point.   I just pray that life is back to some semblance of normal and a full high school/college season is played.    

I think one certainty is that COVID will hurry along the contraction of minor league teams and permanently lead to a draft that is shorter than 40 rounds.