Grade the Draft

[glenn__davis]

"C" seems about right given the info we have, which isn't much.  With the understanding the "C" isn't good or bad, but perfectly average.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

D
 

Too much risk with the #2 pick. It’s stupid to hate on an MLB draft so soon. So I’m not hating on the players, or the strategy. It’s a fine strategy if you were picking 3+. 
 

What’s the point of losing so much if we’re not going to draft Martin. 
 

It’s a fine draft strategy, just not with the 2nd pick. 

I feel like this argument would be much more compelling if Miami (or KC) had selected him immediately in our wake. That he lasted until 5 makes me think those in the know (MLB FOs) weren't as in love with him as other outlets.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I feel like this argument would be much more compelling if Miami (or KC) had selected him immediately in our wake. That he lasted until 5 makes me think those in the know (MLB FOs) weren't as in love with him as other outlets.

Or maybe got scared off by Boras and the asking price.  I'm not happy that Toronto got him.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, RZNJ said:

If Boras wanted 1:1 money, how would Toronto sign him at #5?  One thing is wrong. Either rumors of asking price or consensus of his draft value. JMO

I don't disagree.  But it's not like the consensus of his draft value was totally off....no one (except Elias, of course) had him lower than Kjerstad.  Perhaps rumors of asking price AND consensus of draft value weren't aligned, but not off by a lot.  Off by just enough to let him slide a little to 5th in the draft where he can't really command 1:1 money.  

[interloper]

B for the simple fact that I think Elias would have preferred to nab one of the pitchers at 30. Them's the breaks. 

[Three Run Homer]

I gave it a B.  Elias took two big gambles in this draft.  First, by going underslot at 1:2, he gambled that there would be worthwhile overslot talent available in the later rounds.  It looks like that gamble paid off to some extent in rounds 4 and 5.

The second gamble was to put a lot of weight on the performance of players who got off to a hot start against weak competition this spring.  If you take early season performance at face value, Kjerstad and Servideo made a great leap forward this season.  If that improvement had been sustained over a full season, they would have moved way up the draft boards.  Hopefully Elias had his sabermetricians study how much early season performance spikes have carried over into the rest of the season historically,  while his scouts scoured the film to see if they could detect a change in mechanics or approach that would explain their performance spike.   

[sportsfan8703]

Nobody can say for sure, and that can be the argument for the next 3-5 years, but Detroit picked one spot ahead of us and did much better than we did. 

[SteveA]

I would have gone lower but I deferred to Tony's take on the last two picks, so I upped the grade to a C.

When you suffer through a miserable season and wind up with a top pick, you expect to get someone considered to be a premium talent.   (And before you point out how many #2s don't work out, I know that, but if you are going to take that point of view there is no point in trying to grade a draft at all.   The poll is here, so if I am going to pick a grade, saying it's all a crapshoot anyway is a complete copout).

Bottom line, we had the #2 pick overall and we didn't get anyone who was in the consensus top 10.   Our top 3 picks do not appear to be complete players.   But we got significant value with our last two picks.

[Frobby]

CBS.com gives us a C.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2020-grades-mets-cardinals-rays-earn-a-for-solid-hauls-yankees-red-sox-among-worst-marks/amp/

Bleacher Report: B+ https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2895870-2020-mlb-draft-results-easy-to-view-grades-for-each-franchise.amp.html

[baltfan]

I said B.  Longerhagen of Fangraphs loves what we did

I think Baltimore crushed it. Cutting a deal with Heston Kjerstad at two enabled them to scoop up good high schoolers Coby Mayo (67th on my board, with huge power and arm strength, and who I have him projected in right field) and Carter Baumler near the end of the draft. I also think Anthony Servideo’s 2020 breakout is for real.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/draft-odds-ends-2/

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, this organization is devoid of pitching talent. 

That feels tough on the Baumann/Kremer/Lowther/Akin basket (heck even Hunter Harvey, possible 2-time Rookie of the Year if he can replicate Gregg Olson's 1989/1990).  I do look for a couple useful pieces from there for the peak Rutschman teams.  Maybe more if the handpicked style of guys from the Bundy trade come along like the FO probably expects.

It would have been different if the Bitsko Plan A had worked, but the Westburg/Haskin/Servideo basket of Spread The Wealth NCAA guys may yield another helpful piece by sometime in '22 when I hope for relevance behind Hall/Rodriguez/Rutschman/Kjerstad/2021 pick 1-X.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

That feels tough on the Baumann/Kremer/Lowther/Akin basket (heck even Hunter Harvey, possible 2-time Rookie of the Year if he can replicate Gregg Olson's 1989/1990).  I do look for a couple useful pieces from there for the peak Rutschman teams.  Maybe more if the handpicked style of guys from the Bundy trade come along like the FO probably expects.

It would have been different if the Bitsko Plan A had worked, but the Westburg/Haskin/Servideo basket of Spread The Wealth NCAA guys may yield another helpful piece by sometime in '22 when I hope for relevance behind Hall/Rodriguez/Rutschman/Kjerstad/2021 pick 1-X.

I understand that Baumann/Kremer/Lowther/Akin have their fans.  I've just seen one too many of guys like that with similar profiles not make an impact.  I'm not saying everyone has to be Mike Mussina but I just don't see it with that group.  If it's tough on them, so be it.

I would like to believe that Elias wasn't relying on Bitsko to be there at 30.  Too many variables at play (like every other team out there being able to pick him) for him to pin his hopes to one guy being there at that time.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I understand that Baumann/Kremer/Lowther/Akin have their fans.  I've just seen one too many of guys like that with similar profiles not make an impact.  I'm not saying everyone has to be Mike Mussina but I just don't see it with that group.  If it's tough on them, so be it.

I would like to believe that Elias wasn't relying on Bitsko to be there at 30.  Too many variables at play (like every other team out there being able to pick him) for him to pin his hopes to one guy being there at that time.  

My assumption is that he had multiple potential scenarios mapped out, one of which may have been taking Bitsko. It appears that didn't work out, but the folks that suggest he had all of his eggs in that basket are blinded a bit by confirmation bias. I think Mayo Baumler were definitely potential outcomes mapped on the decision tree associated with the underslot strategy, particularly evidenced by the Mayo signing announced this AM and reports that there should be no drama on the latter.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

If Boras wanted 1:1 money, how would Toronto sign him at #5?  One thing is wrong. Either rumors of asking price or consensus of his draft value. JMO

A 3rd scenario is that he's demanding 1:1 money and Toronto took with the idea of either signing him for #5 slot or taking the extra pick next year if he doesn't. 

Or giving him 1-1 money but depleting the pool for the rest of their draft class.  Was Boras Adam Loewen's guy that year we had a similar kind of deal to the deadline's last moment.  

I've read of at least one projection system that in trying to bake pedigree into the cake used Draft Bonus instead of Draft Slot as the variable input.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Or giving him 1-1 money but depleting the pool for the rest of their draft class.  Was Boras Adam Loewen's guy that year we had a similar kind of deal to the deadline's last moment.  

I've read of at least one projection system that in trying to bake pedigree into the cake used Draft Bonus instead of Draft Slot as the variable input.

That's quite interesting. As others have said, it will be interesting to rack and stack the bonuses when everyone is signed at the end of the process.