Early 2021 Top Draft Prospects

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick.  The O's have been doing this for years.  it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership).  There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round.  DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc. 

None of the picks you cited were actually under slot much, if at all. And Elias was not here for those picks. He famously did that with Carlos Correa and the Astros years ago, and it was very successful. They were able to add the McCullers kid along with Rio Ruiz with over slot bonuses. Correa turned out to be worthy of being #1. And other teams behind the Astros wanted him as well. They just did not tell the publications this because smart GM’s do not tell journalists what they really think until after a  draft. Many people in the industry were not surprised about Kjerstad, but the journalists were. And when they dug around, they found out he was actually much more coveted than they were told before the draft. Callis, for one, spoke of this after the draft. 

I get that you are frustrated, and the board is all over the place with this and we have talked this to death. But Elias stated he believes he got an undervalued player who was about to explode into the top few picks if his junior year was allowed to continue. He listed the reasons that his improved performance and decision making was sustainable. You disagree, that is your right on a message board. But do you really think you know more about how to rebuild a farm system and draft more than a guy(s) who has done it successfully with the Cardinals and Astros in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and his crew? He is not always right, but wow. 

What if Elias thought Kjerstad will be the best overall player he could take there? Maybe his concerns about Martin’s defense or overall production compared to Kjerstad’s best LH bat in the entire draft was why he took him. And he smartly played the industry for a cost cutting contract, even though he felt Kjerstad was their guy. Or Boras may have been playing games with the bonus, or maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore and priced himself out of that pick. 

We don’t really know for sure, but we can have this conversation five or so years from now. 

[7Mo]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

None of the picks you cited were actually under slot much, if at all. And Elias was not here for those picks. He famously did that with Carlos Correa and the Astros years ago, and it was very successful. They were able to add the McCullers kid along with Rio Ruiz with over slot bonuses. Correa turned out to be worthy of being #1. And other teams behind the Astros wanted him as well. They just did not tell the publications this because smart GM’s do not tell journalists what they really think until after a  draft. Many people in the industry were not surprised about Kjerstad, but the journalists were. And when they dug around, they found out he was actually much more coveted than they were told before the draft. Callis, for one, spoke of this after the draft. 

I get that you are frustrated, and the board is all over the place with this and we have talked this to death. But Elias stated he believes he got an undervalued player who was about to explode into the top few picks if his junior year was allowed to continue. He listed the reasons that his improved performance and decision making was sustainable. You disagree, that is your right on a message board. But do you really think you know more about how to rebuild a farm system and draft more than a guy(s) who has done it successfully with the Cardinals and Astros in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and his crew? He is not always right, but wow. 

What if Elias thought Kjerstad will be the best overall player he could take there? Maybe his concerns about Martin’s defense or overall production compared to Kjerstad’s best LH bat in the entire draft was why he took him. And he smartly played the industry for a cost cutting contract, even though he felt Kjerstad was their guy. Or Boras may have been playing games with the bonus, or maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore and priced himself out of that pick. 

We don’t really know for sure, but we can have this conversation five or so years from now. 

Very good post.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

None of the picks you cited were actually under slot much, if at all. And Elias was not here for those picks. He famously did that with Carlos Correa and the Astros years ago, and it was very successful. They were able to add the McCullers kid along with Rio Ruiz with over slot bonuses. Correa turned out to be worthy of being #1. And other teams behind the Astros wanted him as well. They just did not tell the publications this because smart GM’s do not tell journalists what they really think until after a  draft. Many people in the industry were not surprised about Kjerstad, but the journalists were. And when they dug around, they found out he was actually much more coveted than they were told before the draft. Callis, for one, spoke of this after the draft. 

I get that you are frustrated, and the board is all over the place with this and we have talked this to death. But Elias stated he believes he got an undervalued player who was about to explode into the top few picks if his junior year was allowed to continue. He listed the reasons that his improved performance and decision making was sustainable. You disagree, that is your right on a message board. But do you really think you know more about how to rebuild a farm system and draft more than a guy(s) who has done it successfully with the Cardinals and Astros in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and his crew? He is not always right, but wow. 

What if Elias thought Kjerstad will be the best overall player he could take there? Maybe his concerns about Martin’s defense or overall production compared to Kjerstad’s best LH bat in the entire draft was why he took him. And he smartly played the industry for a cost cutting contract, even though he felt Kjerstad was their guy. Or Boras may have been playing games with the bonus, or maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore and priced himself out of that pick. 

We don’t really know for sure, but we can have this conversation five or so years from now. 

The DJ and Grenier picks were widely panned.  I'm glad that DJ has at least made it to the majors as a part time player.  Most teams would not think that picking a defensively limited player who needs his swing reworked in the 1st round is a good pick.  I'm hoping for the best for Elias and I don't blame him for mistakes in drafts before he got here like some national experts. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The DJ and Grenier picks were widely panned.  I'm glad that DJ has at least made it to the majors as a part time player.  Most teams would not think that picking a defensively limited player who needs his swing reworked in the 1st round is a good pick.  I'm hoping for the best for Elias and I don't blame him for mistakes in drafts before he got here like some national experts. 

I was never a fan of the DJ pick. Still not. But, in fairness, that was the previous regime, and they wanted the power. They sacrificed defense for power/production. Elias had nothing to do with that. 

Grenier is looking up for the past 4-5 weeks. Check his AA stats. It was considered a reach, but the previous regime valued his defense that much. Saw him as guy with a nearly MLB ready SS glove. That group believed in moving prospects quickly and they’ll teach you how to hit, or whatever. 

When hired, Mike Elias was considered a bright rising front office star. A steal of a hire, who came along with his own rocket scientist. The theory of spreading the bonuses around is a sound one, but there are no guarantees. 

We all want this to work out. Just need to be patient.

[Just Regular]

All the GM's anxious about Omaha overuse breathing a little easier with Vandy's unfortunate default over NC State into the finals.

Rocker pitched well in an elimination game the other day, and all that's left is the 3-game finals now where both can probably take one turn without anything too crazy happening.

My uneducated guess would be Rocker just cools it in Game 2 if Leiter can win Game 1.

[Ruzious]

Rocker and Leiter continue to dominate.  Rocker actually has the slightly better SO/W ratio.  Could it be that Rocker has actually become underrated?  

[baltimoreO's22]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Rocker and Leiter continue to dominate.  Rocker actually has the slightly better SO/W ratio.  Could it be that Rocker has actually become underrated?  

Rocker should be on the mound tonight in a potential championship clinching game for Vandy. 

[Paul in Virginia]

2021 MLB DRAFT - TOP 600 PROSPECTS

 

2021 MLB Draft - Top 600 Prospects — Prospects Live

[Sports Guy]

 

[Hazmat]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Assuming Watson is gone by 5, and we have no interest in Rocker or House, this seems to indicate a big drop off to the other names that have been associated with the O’s.  I’m surprised by Davis’ score.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

Prospects Live Mock Draft 6.0

5. Baltimore Orioles

Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)

One thing is certain with Mike Elias and the Orioles. They’re a pretty good bet to save some cash with their first round pick. It’s an annual exercise. Watson is believed to be a pretty safe bet to take a deal at the top of the first round. Regardless, there are scouts who believe he’s the best prep bat in the class. Watson might not be the fastest mover to the big leagues, and probably enters the fold in the middle of the Orioles upcoming window, but the Birds land a premier bat at an up-the-middle position here. We’ve heard Baltimore connected to Colson Cowser, Sal Frelick, Kumar Rocker and Harry Ford here as well.

 

2021 MLB Mock Draft - V 6.0 — Prospects Live

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Paul in Virginia

[osravensfan78]

That’s the second mock this week that has us taking Watson over Lawlar. I am pretty high on Watson, but I never thought we’d have a shit at Lawlar to be honest. If he is there, I think he has to be the pick.

[Paul in Virginia]

You might wanna proofread your post, osravensfan78?

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Paul in Virginia

[wildcard]

11 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

Prospects Live Mock Draft 6.0

5. Baltimore Orioles

Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)

One thing is certain with Mike Elias and the Orioles. They’re a pretty good bet to save some cash with their first round pick. It’s an annual exercise. Watson is believed to be a pretty safe bet to take a deal at the top of the first round. Regardless, there are scouts who believe he’s the best prep bat in the class. Watson might not be the fastest mover to the big leagues, and probably enters the fold in the middle of the Orioles upcoming window, but the Birds land a premier bat at an up-the-middle position here. We’ve heard Baltimore connected to Colson Cowser, Sal Frelick, Kumar Rocker and Harry Ford here as well.

 

2021 MLB Mock Draft - V 6.0 — Prospects Live

 

 

 

I can see Elias going underslot if the draft goes this way.   If Mayer, Leiter and Davis are gone I can see Elias taking the cheapest of Watson, Lawlar, House and Rocker.   The thinking would be that they are not that far apart in talent.   Watson may be the cheapest of the four.

[forphase1]

14 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

Prospects Live Mock Draft 6.0

5. Baltimore Orioles

Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)

One thing is certain with Mike Elias and the Orioles. They’re a pretty good bet to save some cash with their first round pick. It’s an annual exercise. 

 

 

And this is why I hate reporters.  Elias has a total of two drafts that he has ran.   In exactly one of them they saved cash with their first round pick by going underslot.  That hardly makes it an 'annual exercise'.  For all anyone knows,  last year was a unique year and the underslot strategy won't be seen again by the Os.  Or it could happen every year.   We don't know yet, and to blatantly say it's an annual exercise is ridiculous.  But that's modern sensationalism reporting.  That said I hope they take the BPA, unless they really have multiple guys all bunched around the same grade, and in that case it makes sense to save cash to have more to spend later.