Roadmap to Contention 2020

[ScGO's]

The O's are in contention, and I'm loving it, and I know many of you are too.  So I'm putting together a roadmap to contention based on what our roster offers; I'm also trying to support the rebuild in this blueprint as 2020 is an outlier and the front office shouldn't sacrifice valuable young talent for a rental player in a trade.

The pitching - The Bullpen looks strong.  Castro, Susler, Scott, Armstrong, Givens are a good core.  Jury is still out on Fry and Lakins.  We need one more strong lefty and I wonder if that could be one of Akin, Lowther, Millone, or Leblanc.  We are thin on starters and I wonder if we shouldn't run more opener and relief committee game plans.  A lot of these guys are effective only once, maybe twice through the line up.  I don't think Eshelman, Hess, or Phillips is going to be part of the solution.  Hopefully Means returns to form.  Cobb is looking like he's back. Wojo is another guy who might best serve as a 3 inning guy coming in after a Tanner Scott opens for 2 innings. You also have to wonder if guys like Kremer, Baumann, and Zimmerman would do well in relief or opener roles (Not in the long term, but just for this 60 game season).  I don't think the waiver wire (the Lopez sign) is the way to go when addressing the parent club if we are going to contend.  Don't want to spend money, but are there FA opportunities still? Maybe we see Harvey and Tate by September?

Some sort of rotation scenario to ponder

#1 Means

#2 Cobb

#3 Opener (Castro, Scott, Harvey, etc) followed by a (Wojo, LeBlanc, Millone, Akin, etc)

#4 3-5 inning guys (Wojo, LeBlanc, Millone, Akin, etc) into the bullpen

#5 Pick your poison from #3 or 4 (really just a balancing game of innings if you play the roster numbers well. You hope a Means, Cobb, or one of the usual 3-5 innings guys gives you a 7-9 inning start every once in awhile, usually if the the O's offense explodes early).

Catcher

I'll just get to the point, if Adley Rutchman is a better defensive option than all the guys we have now (equal to or greater than Holladay) why not give him a shot? Can he hit at a similar clip to what we can expect from Cisco or Severino? I wonder if we can trade Severino for a useful roster piece, perhaps an OF or RP? Go with Cisco, Adley, and Holladay for awhile; if it seems Adley and Cisco can handle it after a few weeks, go with 2 catchers.

IF - A lot of the moves the O's need to make in order to maximize their roster space is contingent on cutting Davis, or perhaps he can "Opt Out" as his struggles have continued.  I like Vasquez right now as a speed and defensive replacement option. Nunez is best used at 1B or DH.  Mountcastle should be used in the LF/1B/DH triangle too.  Maybe a Dillon Herrera catches a quick power streak on the parent club? Valaika has been a solid find. We are good to go at 3B,SS, and 2B

OF - Hays has been a god send defensively in CF.  Santander is definitely occupying a corner.  Dwight Smith isn't a terrible #4 or a useful PH option late in the game. Maybe DJ Stewart can figure it out.  I think Diaz should be given a chance too.  Mountcastle should be able to provide some LF innings.  If Mason Williams is a better Def option than Smith Jr, I think he needs to be considered as the #4 as well. 

Anyone else see another way to maximize the roster and contend? 

Maybe we pick someone up in a trade or signing, but a Starting 9 of the following ain't bad.

C - Adley

1B - Nunez

2B - Alberto

SS - Iglesias

3B - Ruiz

LF - Diaz

CF - Hayes

RF - Santander

DH - Mountcastle

Bench - Cisco, Smith Jr, Valezquez, Holladay

[Can_of_corn]

I won't try to take all your hard work apart here.  I'll just say that everything we have heard and seen from Elias leads me to believe there is zero chance of Adley Rutchman making his ML debut this season.

[HowAboutThat]

I posted about comparing 2005 to 2020, and I mentioned that overall the roster in 2005 was far superior To 2020: a lot of dross, but 4-5 real stars in Raffy, Mora, Sosa, Roberts, and Bedard.

The only way we’re going to get anywhere this season is luck. That’s the long and short of it.

Luck.

Now remember, Luck is ALWAYS Better than skill. But it is much less dependable.

So we shall see what happens.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

 

Now remember, Luck is ALWAYS Better than skill.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't know man, I'm sure if I got lucky enough I could beat LeBron James one on one.

[ArtVanDelay]

9 minutes ago, Philip said:

I posted about comparing 2005 to 2020, and I mentioned that overall the roster in 2005 was far superior To 2020: a lot of dross, but 4-5 real stars in Raffy, Mora, Sosa, Roberts, and Bedard.

The only way we’re going to get anywhere this season is luck. That’s the long and short of it.

Luck.

Now remember, Luck is ALWAYS Better than skill. But it is much less dependable.

So we shall see what happens.

Sosa and Palmeiro combined for -1.6 fWAR in 2005.  They were no longer stars by that point. 

[Camden_yardbird]

The best thing about being a "surprising  .500 team" is that it hopefully catches the attention of real competitive teams and gets them asking if there are some Orioles players they could use on their team.  And then hopefully Elias makes some better trades.

[Aristotelian]

Appreciate the enthusiasm but saying we are "in contention" is a bit of a stretch. I would be surprised to see Rutschman and I am not sure Diaz is going to be an improvement. Certainly I hope we get a boost from Mountcastle. Is there any word on Harvey? Getting him back could really help strengthen the back end. "Strong" is not the word I would use to describe the bullpen until we get some help.

[HowAboutThat]

41 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Last night proves the accuracy of that adage.

We won because we were lucky, but nobody was depending on that luck. The most skilled most organized and best trained team in baseball will lose a game every time if somebody trips at the wrong moment.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Last night proves the accuracy of that adage.

We won because we were lucky, but nobody was depending on that luck. The most skilled most organized and best trained team in baseball will lose a game every time if somebody trips at the wrong moment.

That's not a plan.

[Morgan423]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

Last night proves the accuracy of that adage.

We won because we were lucky, but nobody was depending on that luck. The most skilled most organized and best trained team in baseball will lose a game every time if somebody trips at the wrong moment.

Luck is not better than skill outside of the most ridiculously small sample sizes and rarest of occurrences.

I might hit a flop every blue moon with a terrible hand against overwhelmingly bad odds if the stars align, but if I keep playing aggressively with horrible hands, I'm going to lose my way out of the poker game faster than you can blink. 

Be the best, not the luckiest. 

[HowAboutThat]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Appreciate the enthusiasm but saying we are "in contention" is a bit of a stretch. I would be surprised to see Rutschman and I am not sure Diaz is going to be an improvement. Certainly I hope we get a boost from Mountcastle. Is there any word on Harvey? Getting him back could really help strengthen the back end. "Strong" is not the word I would use to describe the bullpen until we get some help.

Is somebody seriously suggesting that we should bring AR to the show?

I don’t think that’s going to happen. Even if he were ready, it would be silly to waste a year of service time For this cactus dance.

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's not a plan.

Of course is not a plan. Did I say it was? I said specifically that we can’t plan on luck. What part of”...Much less dependable” Did you miss. We are where we are because we have been lucky. You cannot plan on the luck, you can only enjoy it when it happens. The 2005 team was not lucky, I don’t think, rather, I think their true ability level as a team finally caught up with them.

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Appreciate the enthusiasm but saying we are "in contention" is a bit of a stretch. I would be surprised to see Rutschman and I am not sure Diaz is going to be an improvement. Certainly I hope we get a boost from Mountcastle. Is there any word on Harvey? Getting him back could really help strengthen the back end. "Strong" is not the word I would use to describe the bullpen until we get some help.

Hyde projected that Harvey would be ready by the end of August.

[HowAboutThat]

7 minutes ago, Morgan423 said:

Luck is not better than skill outside of the most ridiculously small sample sizes and rarest of occurrences.

I might hit a flop every blue moon with a terrible hand against overwhelmingly bad odds if the stars align, but if I keep playing aggressively with horrible hands, I'm going to lose my way out of the poker game faster than you can blink. 

Be the best, not the luckiest. 

You’re the second person who seems to have misunderstood what I said. I said luck is better than skill, but it is much less dependable. Nobody can plan on being lucky every time. We proved that last night, but at the same time last night we saw again that being lucky is better than being skillful.
Skill is much more dependable. But, again, as we saw last night, being lucky is better. The problem is that you never know when you’re going to be lucky, and because you cannot rely on luck, you must develop your skill.
So far, we have been pretty lucky, and as moose said, being lucky is not a plan. But Moose also missed that I never suggested it was a plan, I just said that’s the way things have gone for us lately.